Holy Grail Portfolio Strategy

F

frostengine

My portfolio strategy consists of several hedges which when combined "in theory" should produce the following returns:

1. Sideways market (defined as +/- .5% move on SPY each week) should yield a total account return of 1-3% per week.

2. Bullish market should yield a 1 to 3x SPY return per week. Example, if the SPY gains 2% in a given week, my portfolio should yield between 2% to 6% (total account value)

3. Bearish market should yield < -1.25x SPY return per week. Example, if the SPY loses 2% in a given week, my portfolio should lose less than 2.5% (total account value)

These are "averages" and in some weeks may deviate slightly, but over 3 or 4 weeks should average out.

This is the first week for which I have traded "all the hedges" at the same time (on a live portfolio). Each of the hedges have been independently developed over the past several years. In theory the returns should match the above, however in practice things rarely go as anticipated.

The goal of this thread will be the following:

#1 Keep myself disciplined. With so many positions and "my inherit biases" towards the market its easy for me to stray away from the strategy and deviate on certain hedges. Hopefully this thread will help keep me disciplined.

#2 Its possible certain hedges will not perform as anticipated. In such instances this thread will serve as a discussion concerning failed hedges and ways to improve them.

#3 Reduce boredom. This strategy is actually quite boring requiring only 5 minutes per day and 30 minutes on Friday to adjust.

My portfolio value as of Monday was: $107,625
 
how are you picking youe strikes, underlyings etc.

Or is youe goal to have them on all at the same time and close them as each reaches profit, reestablish that position and repeat.
 
The positions are engaged at the same time - no legging in. The same underlinings are traded each week. The positions are a combination of long options, short options, calls, puts, and shares. At the end of each week the options are rolled to the next week and shares adjusted if necessary.

If a short option realizes 90% of the profit prior to the end of the week, the position is closed early.
 
First week running the portfolio live is in the books.
Spy Change this week: 192.87 - 195.45 = -2.58 = -1.3%

Portfolio Change:
Last Friday: $107,625
Today: $108,716
= +$1,091 (+1%)
 
This week, I had a slight under performance. I was too aggressive in adjusting my hedges to protect against a pull back earlier in the week. This caused me to miss out on some of the potential gain.

In addition, this is the first week for which I feel under prepared going into next week. Due to the extreme extended nature of the market at this point, I did not sell much premium. Will be interesting how I adjust Monday/Tuesday or if I essentially take the week off.

SPY Change: +3.28%
Ending Portfolio value: $112,545
Change: +$2,600 (+2.4%)
 
frostengine said:
This week, I had a slight under performance. I was too aggressive in adjusting my hedges to protect against a pull back earlier in the week. This caused me to miss out on some of the potential gain.

In addition, this is the first week for which I feel under prepared going into next week. Due to the extreme extended nature of the market at this point, I did not sell much premium. Will be interesting how I adjust Monday/Tuesday or if I essentially take the week off.

SPY Change: +3.28%
Ending Portfolio value: $112,545
Change: +$2,600 (+2.4%)
More...
Nice! Still equal/slightly outperforming the market it looks like
 
I essentially took the week off due to not establishing many positions last Friday. However, even though I did not sell much premium, my long positions remained. As such I suffered a bit of decay. In the future, I should close out all positions if I "take a week off".

SPY Change: +.96%
Ending portfolio Value: $111,574
Change: -.86%
 
I hold very little stock, almost exclusively long dated options. So on weeks like this one where I do not sell much premium, the decay will hurt a little.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top