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Holy grail of daytrading
- Thread starter Lights
- Start date
Quote from ocean5:
You are lack of knowledge on how markets work,lack of the knowledge of yourself,you do not understand compounding,otherwise you wouldnt post this BS,and additional BS about Cohen and Billy Beane butter bean bada bing bada pam bada boom
And here I was thinking that your first comment was substance-less. It's a veritable philosophical treatise compared to this one. Man, you are one pathetic tool.
Quote from logic_man:
And here I was thinking that your first comment was substance-less. It's a veritable philosophical treatise compared to this one. Man, you are one pathetic tool.
Ah..you know,there is no difference between your post and the last couple of words of my treatise - 'butter bean bada bing bada pam bada boom'.No difference at all,sadly...
Quote from logic_man:
Even so, Billy Beane didn't strike gold with every prospect he selected using the Moneyball approach.
I don't know why you can't just admit that your original post, while containing some good points, paints an unrealistic picture of what can be done? Failing that, point someone out who's doing this.
The stat that's floated around for years from Steve Cohen is that his best traders are right a little less than 65% of the time. Given that Cohen can definitely afford to wait for "fat pitches", why didn't he say his traders were right all the time by just waiting for the creme-de-la-creme of market setups?
If you are only involved in trades that have a 70% chance of success which is less than the fat pitch, you will still make much more than trading every single day. There are tools to determine these probabilities.
Funds such as Steve Cohen and most of the fund universe can't be in 100% cash most of the time. Their trading methodologies and prospectus require them to be involved in markets on a daily basis. Otherwise, their investors would just move to money market funds. This is the fallacy of active management and why vast majority underperform their index.
Quote from Lights:
The grail really is to not trade at all most of the time. There are 10 grand slam fat pitch over the plate trades a year. If you only take those, you will have outperformed nearly everyone. Reason why most fund managers underperform their indexes is because they are always involved and too big to move. I recently read an article on trading regarding trader statistics and it showed that profitable traders only really make 10% of their potential over the course of their career because of commission, slippage, and emotional loss fatigue. Imagine a trader who has traded 500 million shares over a decade which is average for a professional prop daytrader. He has paid someone $2.5-$3.0 million in fees.
You've been on this board since 2003 and that's the best you can come up with?
There are a myriad of problems with your logic which I'm simply not interested in delving into or writing about....in a nutshell.....you're on cloud 9 if you think this will work....
cloud 9:
This is a level where you can't get any higher. The highest point of getting a high! ~Urban Dictionary
Quote from HurricaneUS:
You've been on this board since 2003 and that's the best you can come up with?
There are a myriad of problems with your logic which I'm simply not interested in delving into or writing about....in a nutshell.....you're on cloud 9 if you think this will work....
cloud 9:
This is a level where you can't get any higher. The highest point of getting a high! ~Urban Dictionary
That's exactly what my former prop broker said when I told him I'd like to just take 1 trade every 2 weeks from here on after trading 50 million shares the year before and giving up thick 6 figures in fees.
If the holy grail is to only take your best trades, naturally that's not possible to do consistently, but you can leverage up your high probability setups if you have two algorithms with 70+% win percentages so that when they agree you bet larger than you otherwise would have.
This is assuming you have at least 2 holy grails.
This is assuming you have at least 2 holy grails.
For daytrading? Seriously? That's like saying if the Lakers only played Kobe for his best 5 games every season the team would have a much better record.
If your 10 best daytrades for the year net more than all your trades combined, you are in the wrong time frame.
In any case, if you even tried to limit yourself to the 10 "best", you'd probably miss out on 9 of them. My guess is I could only anticipate 1 out of 10 "home run" trades before they've panned out; the rest just happen and you take/keep advantage. This holy grail is just another fallacy involving statistics and market performance.
If your 10 best daytrades for the year net more than all your trades combined, you are in the wrong time frame.
In any case, if you even tried to limit yourself to the 10 "best", you'd probably miss out on 9 of them. My guess is I could only anticipate 1 out of 10 "home run" trades before they've panned out; the rest just happen and you take/keep advantage. This holy grail is just another fallacy involving statistics and market performance.