Holy Grail!! I found it..

Quote from ProfLogic:

Pretty simple statement.
Pretty straight forward.
Not to difficult to grasp.

A natural chart or trading environment is anything not artificial, manufactured or calculated.

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A chart based in shares or contracts is natural because the markets are traded in shares and contracts. Any chart based in shares has no need to be interpreted and thus there is no inherent margin for error. Every oscillation on these charts show natural price oscillations.
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You say that a system that is based on your desired type of chart will never have intollerable drawdowns? That's crazy.

All it takes is one major surprise and you're toast. Those surprises aren't seen in any chart until it's too late.
 
Quote from shortie:

should the natural system only use price and volume as its parameters (and not use time)?
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Time is on your clock. You trade the same times of the day you always have it is just your chart doesn't reflect time increments, it reflect natural price oscillations.
 
Quote from retire45:

Why would anyone insist on one tool in a job that changes all the time? Actually it is very simple, so obvious this thread borders on being pointless.
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Well stated.

It is senseless to use a tool that is constantly changing.

The thread, I disagree is not pointless. If it makes an individual think, "why" or "what" is the difference between the environments and then they go prove it to themselves, then the thread was purposeful.
 
Quote from shortie:

i don't know what "based on natural market movement" means, but a giant drawdown is unavoidable with any "system" IMHO.
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If you truely believe this, then you urgently need to continue on the quest!

Regards Johno
 
Quote from aceholic:

You say that a system that is based on your desired type of chart will never have intollerable drawdowns? That's crazy.

All it takes is one major surprise and you're toast. Those surprises aren't seen in any chart until it's too late.
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Really?

What would you consider "a major surprise"?
911?
The London subway bombing?
Crop reports?

None of these cause or caused an intolerable draw-down, either long term or short term. Of course me saying that is worthless. I speak at an Ag group in the Oklahoma panhandle area each year before the USDA acreage report comes out. The attendees are educators, the largest farmers in the area, the largest grain elevators owners in the area and the largest feed lots in the area. We review the charts to see where soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, natural gas and the meats are going into the reports. Now not all the charts are clear but of the charts that ARE clear (not in consolidation) we are 100% accurate in regards to price direction going into and immediately following the report . . . 5 years in a row. The common denominator is that all of the charts we watch are price/volume based not time, transaction or range.

I don't care whether you believe it or not but I will tell you one thing, if you set your charts up to eliminate time or transactions and replace it with price/volume you will see for yourself the consistency of the oscillations will improve 100 fold. Prove it to yourself. Me telling you doesn't mean squat.
 
Quote from Your Papers pls:

come on OP

isn't it time to be serious and wise given your age
you can't know when your good system will go bad, and when bad will be good

dream on
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Bullsh-t, you won't know what outcome you will achieve with each trade, but you should know what market conditions your technique will or will not work in! Re Jesse Livermore, if the conditions don't favour your style of trading don't simply reduce size as you will still end up losing, but rather adopt a method to suit current market conditions ( the method should never leave you in a position where you can be busted out ) or simply step aside!

Remember, a fool and his money are soon parted!

Regards

Johno
 
Quote from Your Papers pls:

come on OP

isn't it time to be serious and wise given your age
you can't know when your good system will go bad, and when bad will be good

dream on
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You can't know when it will but I hope you know when it has soon enough. Most successful traders I've come across go through periods when they do very little because they aren't fools.
 
Quote from retire45:



The holy grail in trading is recognizing when your system is not working........

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That, I have achieved. I very clearly recognize when my system is not working: from 9:30am to 4:00pm every day, every week, every month, every year, for 3 years. I guess I have found the holy grail.
 
Quote from retire45:

Reading market tone therefore is the Holy Grail which maybe can be taught but I think it simply takes the time to experience various market modes to learn them.
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Agreed.

Good post on an interesting thread. :)

Have a nice weekend.
 
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