Quote from Don Bright:
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No matter how smart "they" are, the problem is that we mere mortals are too unpredictable.
You are correct, most of the time. A lot of unpredictability. But, every now and again, they are predictable. And that's all it takes.
A guy doesn't have to trade every day and doesn't have to trade every move. I saw a top in oil the Friday it DID top, but wouldn't have shorted there. A few weeks later, a perfect opportunity arose. On top of all of the supposedly bullish news, Prudhoe Bay shuts down a pipeline. Most expected a $5 minimum pop, quite a few a new high. I didn't doubt that could happen, but I watched as it DIDN'T. Somebody was selling that rally and selling it hard, and the specs and hedgers who were buying were just so long already they would be unable to support price. Next day, price trades sideways, then the day after. It tried to go higher several times, but was unable to. And all over television, analysts and interviewees were claiming oil was going to $100. But it wasn't moving! Sentiment so bullish and price ignoring it.
That has to be a sell, if not a short sell. But the specs were getting longer and longer.
Specs follow the trend, so it seemed a sure thing that IF price fell, they'd have to sell twice to get short. Who would be left to buy? And somebody was already selling enough to cap even the most bullish crowd. Ever since then has been the result.
Same thing happens when Iran comes to a head just a little while ago. Same predictable result.
But, that's all simple stuff. The hard part came from learning to trust my intuition. This is what will sound unbelievable (and the only reason I put this under the Holy Grail topic). Somehow, I've been able to "game" out next week's headlines. Not all the time, but far more than random. I seem to be able to figure out, sometimes, exactly what a particular market will focus on tomorrow and next week. Some of how this is done is explainable, some isn't. But, I'm coming to trust it anyhow. Price is always the true guide. When price and intuition agree, it's just almost never wrong. I have heard of others being able to do this, some pretty big names on Wall Street. Spooky is how they were described. I've no illusions of being in their league, I've so much to learn in order to get to that level. Knowing that someone can do it, and having some evidence myself, is all that is needed to pursue it despite it's "unrealistic" or "impossible" nature.
Truly not expecting most guys to believe this. Just saying.