Hi, all--
In analyzing my weaknesses, I have determined that failing to hold my winners longer is one of my greatest--if not the greatest--challenges.
By "holding winners longer," I don't mean trying to "pick the top" when going long. It's not that I've already got 90% of the overall move and I'm trying to catch the last 10%--it's that I am catching only about 10% of the total move for the day in a given trade. This happens very often--at least two to three times a day.
I noticed amongst the traders at my firm that there are those who hold their winners far too short (scalper-types--1% to 5% of the move) and there are those that hold winners just about to the middle (25% to 60% of the move). There don't seem to be any that are consistently able to get most/all of the move (80% to 95%).
But then there are those rare traders that tend to hold winners way too long--they usually hold all the way up to 100% of the move and then eventually exit while giving back some or most of their profits (back down to 50% to 75% of the move). What's strange is that these rare guys happen to be our best-performing traders by far. We have one that makes $10K to $50K/day, with just a handful of trades each day. We had another who was hired away to be a fund manager who made $80K/month using only 500 or 1000 share lots. He would say about himself that his number one weakness is that he'll hold far too long, often letting a huge winner go back into negative territory.
Now, some of you might say: "just do what those guys are doing--hang on all the way to 100% and sell on the way back down." Well, we know 100% of "the move" only in hindsight. While actually trading, how are we to know that a 20-cent move is only 10% or 100% of the nascent move? How are we to know that when we see the price go up 20-cents and turn around down and go negative, that we aren't holding on to what will turn out to turn back up or go down further?
That's the reason I can't just ape these top-performers in our firm. All of them also happen to experience HUGE losers too, sometimes walking out with $10K losing days. I can't imitate these guys because I simply don't have the psychological profile to handle losses that large (dollar-wise OR percentage-wise).
A more real example of the downfall of simply holding longer is another trader in the firm that is actually trying to copy these hugely successful traders. He trades off of the chart, disdaining the Level 2, Market Maker, and Open Book screens and other "micro" indicators. This has the fortunate effect of producing huge winners for him--trading off of significant points on the chart often involves 1-stick winners or larger. While I'm catching 20-cent moves, he's catching 80-centers. Unfortunately, trading off of the charts alone often results in having to take a huge loser before he finds out he was wrong on a trade, and more often than not, he'll walk out with a huge losing day. He's wiped out his account a couple of times already, and this is not obviously what I want to train into myself.
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If you can imagine two sliding scales--one for losses and one for wins--I'm trying to keep my losses tight (less than 2% of the total move of the losing trade) while gradually increasing the size of my winners (sliding from 10% towards about 50%-75% of the total winning move).
For a primarily-defensive trader, what do you guys recommend in terms of a training routine or process to gradually improve my offensive game while maintaining my otherwise excellent defense?
No, I'm not trying to "have my cake and eat it too," meaning that I want nothing but huge winners with tiny losses. I understand that losses are an unavoidable part of trading. What I'm trying to do is gradually shift my psych profile towards offense. If a baseball analogy helps, I'm not trying to hit home runs on every at-bat (and thereby strike out more often than getting a hit); I'm trying to step up to singles to doubles from bunting on every swing.
What did you guys do? Start with 100-lots and practice holding past your threshold of pain? Work for weeks in simulation mode? How do you blend the use of "micro" indicators to protect against loss with "macro" indicators to get larger wins?
Any tips are greatly appreciated! Thanks in advance!
D.
In analyzing my weaknesses, I have determined that failing to hold my winners longer is one of my greatest--if not the greatest--challenges.
By "holding winners longer," I don't mean trying to "pick the top" when going long. It's not that I've already got 90% of the overall move and I'm trying to catch the last 10%--it's that I am catching only about 10% of the total move for the day in a given trade. This happens very often--at least two to three times a day.
I noticed amongst the traders at my firm that there are those who hold their winners far too short (scalper-types--1% to 5% of the move) and there are those that hold winners just about to the middle (25% to 60% of the move). There don't seem to be any that are consistently able to get most/all of the move (80% to 95%).
But then there are those rare traders that tend to hold winners way too long--they usually hold all the way up to 100% of the move and then eventually exit while giving back some or most of their profits (back down to 50% to 75% of the move). What's strange is that these rare guys happen to be our best-performing traders by far. We have one that makes $10K to $50K/day, with just a handful of trades each day. We had another who was hired away to be a fund manager who made $80K/month using only 500 or 1000 share lots. He would say about himself that his number one weakness is that he'll hold far too long, often letting a huge winner go back into negative territory.
Now, some of you might say: "just do what those guys are doing--hang on all the way to 100% and sell on the way back down." Well, we know 100% of "the move" only in hindsight. While actually trading, how are we to know that a 20-cent move is only 10% or 100% of the nascent move? How are we to know that when we see the price go up 20-cents and turn around down and go negative, that we aren't holding on to what will turn out to turn back up or go down further?
That's the reason I can't just ape these top-performers in our firm. All of them also happen to experience HUGE losers too, sometimes walking out with $10K losing days. I can't imitate these guys because I simply don't have the psychological profile to handle losses that large (dollar-wise OR percentage-wise).
A more real example of the downfall of simply holding longer is another trader in the firm that is actually trying to copy these hugely successful traders. He trades off of the chart, disdaining the Level 2, Market Maker, and Open Book screens and other "micro" indicators. This has the fortunate effect of producing huge winners for him--trading off of significant points on the chart often involves 1-stick winners or larger. While I'm catching 20-cent moves, he's catching 80-centers. Unfortunately, trading off of the charts alone often results in having to take a huge loser before he finds out he was wrong on a trade, and more often than not, he'll walk out with a huge losing day. He's wiped out his account a couple of times already, and this is not obviously what I want to train into myself.
-----
If you can imagine two sliding scales--one for losses and one for wins--I'm trying to keep my losses tight (less than 2% of the total move of the losing trade) while gradually increasing the size of my winners (sliding from 10% towards about 50%-75% of the total winning move).
For a primarily-defensive trader, what do you guys recommend in terms of a training routine or process to gradually improve my offensive game while maintaining my otherwise excellent defense?
No, I'm not trying to "have my cake and eat it too," meaning that I want nothing but huge winners with tiny losses. I understand that losses are an unavoidable part of trading. What I'm trying to do is gradually shift my psych profile towards offense. If a baseball analogy helps, I'm not trying to hit home runs on every at-bat (and thereby strike out more often than getting a hit); I'm trying to step up to singles to doubles from bunting on every swing.
What did you guys do? Start with 100-lots and practice holding past your threshold of pain? Work for weeks in simulation mode? How do you blend the use of "micro" indicators to protect against loss with "macro" indicators to get larger wins?
Any tips are greatly appreciated! Thanks in advance!
D.
