Hold On To Your Britches! Wild Week Ahead! Greek Riots Possible!

[shortie]

i posted this before from the Quantifiable Edges. Buying Fri dip has been easy money. So who went long last Fri?

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/03/after-down-fridays-over-past-year.html

"It is important to understand that this is what I often refer to as an “environmental edge”. In other words, it is something that has worked in the recent past and seems to be a result of the current market environment. It is not an edge that has persisted over a long period of time nor do I expect it to continue to persist for a long period of time from now. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a useful observation, though. In such cases where I believe a setup contains an environmental edge I will look to use it to my advantage until it appears to be losing its effectiveness. Of course I do this with all edges, but environmental edges are on a tighter leash than others."

 

[misterno]

Back in 2000, a Greek analyst working in Goldman Sachs arranges a deal with Greek government to issue more and more debt without the knowledge and insight of EU and Greek public. Goldman Sachs makes millions from these deals.

After 10 years, the debt comes due or comes to light and one more country comes down to despair.

When is Goldman Sachs closed or forced to end the operations. These people are evil. Who knows how many other deals this evil has made with other countries or companies? How many scandals will they bear to?

How come the US government allow all these? How about the hidden potential scandals regarding Treasury, central bank and white house? Are there any deals struck with Goldman Sachs? Why do we have to know about all these after the collapse happens?

WE NEED INFORMATION NOW!!!!!!!!!!

 

[gkishot]

Quote from shortie:

i posted this before from the Quantifiable Edges. Buying Fri dip has been easy money. So who went long last Fri?

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/03/after-down-fridays-over-past-year.html

"It is important to understand that this is what I often refer to as an “environmental edge”. In other words, it is something that has worked in the recent past and seems to be a result of the current market environment. It is not an edge that has persisted over a long period of time nor do I expect it to continue to persist for a long period of time from now. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a useful observation, though. In such cases where I believe a setup contains an environmental edge I will look to use it to my advantage until it appears to be losing its effectiveness. Of course I do this with all edges, but environmental edges are on a tighter leash than others."

Do you have to show the results of your analysis over longer time period?

 

[Random.Capital]

Quote from shortie:

i posted this before from the Quantifiable Edges. Buying Fri dip has been easy money.

What is the stop loss on the go-long position?

 

[EdgeHunter]

Quote from NoDoji:

Bad case of the children's game "telephone" here and spinning a story to sound-bite form, easily digestible by everyone.

The real story is that Terry Hoskins never was even late on a mortgage payment. He'd taken out a bank loan originally to buy land and had built a home on it with his own money. The value of it all was $350,000 and he owed $160,000 on the original land loan.

His bank moved to foreclose on his home, because the bank claimed his home as collateral after the IRS placed a lien on his commercial properties following a lawsuit by his former business partner (his brother):

Faced with foreclosure, Terry Hoskins, a struggling homeowner in Moscow, Ohio, decided to bulldoze his $350,000 home rather than let his bank, RiverHills Bank, take it from him. "When I see I owe $160,000 on a home valued at $350,000, and someone decides they want to take it—no, I wasn't going to stand for that, so I took it down," Hoskins told TV station WLWT in Ohio. The story goes on to say:

"As far as what the bank is going to get, I plan on giving them back what was on this hill exactly (as) it was," Hoskins said. "I brought it out of the ground and I plan on putting it back in the ground."

If these are the exact facts... then Bravo... nice response to Tyranny...

 

[shortie]

Quote from Random.Capital:

What is the stop loss on the go-long position?

there is no stop-loss in that study. it just looks at close-to-close (Fri-Mon) outcome.

i am guessing the strat is b/e over a much longer historical interval.

 

[Random.Capital]

Quote from shortie:

there is no stop-loss in that study. it just looks at close-to-close (Fri-Mon) outcome.

So on a really bad Monday, you can lose everything?

Good plan, that.

 

[loza]

I voted bearish not because of the Greek problems but we ran up a lot and our house is not in order.....yet....NYC traders will be jumpy and nervous in the light of the Time Square timebomb... this means KABOOOOOM for ther spooz !!!!

Quote from shortie:

QQQQ and DIA finally broke their 8 week winning streak but in a somewhat pathetic way -2.5% and -1.7% respectively. I wanted to see more blood, but this market can't go down in any meaningful way.

Next week I expect to be flat/down and WIDE Range. On the one hand, the clean bull run seems over and there is obvious damage to the bullish charts. On the other hand, we have too much fear that accompanies relatively small drops in the indexes. The most recent example is from this Fri when VIX went +20%(!!!!) as SPY lost only 1.7%. The most recent example before that is from Tue when VIX shot up +30%. The excessive fear from Tue resulted in a strong 2-day bounce.

The bottom line is that the coming week may be similar to this one. The volatility could go higher still. We might even see some crazy daily ranges. Unless there are major NEW news, the market may finish the week flat.

Now about possible NEW news:

Greek riots:
"...News of the additional austerity measures provoked an angry reaction from trade unions, which are organizing a general strike for May 5. Demonstrations are also planned for Saturday, which is Labor Day."

Even though the general strike is on Wed, the first mass demonstrations are on May 1st. I speculate that there is a distinct possibility that the crowds could go nuts tomorrow.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

...we have too much fear that accompanies relatively small drops in the indexes. The most recent example is from this Fri when VIX went +20%(!!!!) as SPY lost only 1.7%. The most recent example before that is from Tue when VIX shot up +30%. The excessive fear from Tue resulted in a strong 2-day bounce.
...

hard for the market to go down with so much fear

 

[rew]

Greek riots? Delta and gamma stomping all over vega and breaking theta's windows.

Oh wait, this isn't the options forum.