Hogs spreads

The M/J hog spread is bouncing up today. A couple of short term bullish divergences with the RSI are giving me optimism on my longs here.

Any comments?
 

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Quote from Nicklas26:
.....use the % of full carry as a key decision driver for spread trade entry/exit?
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1) That makes more "sense" within the same crop year. It falls apart when you crossover into the next crop year, i.e. old crop to new crop spreads.
2) In a raging bull market, the market should "invert" thereby making the calculation useless. :cool:
 
Nice handle Mr. Hogweed, I trust your are glyphosate resistant!

Any ideas on how to play a three to five year spike in the hog market?

My thinking is that low prices are causing many producers to leave the industry leading to a lack of supply shock. Of course it may not happen but it could be a good trade if the R/R is right.

Maybe invest in high end genetics in the form of boar seamen?
 
Quote from zf trader:

Nice handle Mr. Hogweed, I trust your are glyphosate resistant!

Any ideas on how to play a three to five year spike in the hog market?

My thinking is that low prices are causing many producers to leave the industry leading to a lack of supply shock. Of course it may not happen but it could be a good trade if the R/R is right.

Maybe invest in high end genetics in the form of boar seamen?
More...
LOL, I had to look up glyphosate, that's greek to me..... Unfortunately I am a swing trader only, fundamentals are latin to me. The seasonals point up from here, but so far the spread is not responding. So for a 3 to 5 year play you're asking the wrong person.:D
 
Quote from nazzdack:

1) That makes more "sense" within the same crop year. It falls apart when you crossover into the next crop year, i.e. old crop to new crop spreads.
2) In a raging bull market, the market should "invert" thereby making the calculation useless. :cool:
More...


Gotcha - thanks Nazzdack
 
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