Harley-Davidson Earnings Are Coming. Here’s What to Expect.
By Connor Smith
April 21, 2019 7:30 a.m. ET
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Photograph by Carlos Irineau da Costa
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Harley-Davidson is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, before the market opens.
Harley stock (ticker: HOG) is up 19.8% so far this year through Thursday’s close, compared with a gain of 15.9% for the S&P 500 index.
Here’s a snapshot of Wall Street’s expectations and some recent history.
Most analysts are neutral on Harley stock. Out 23 analyst ratings, there are 18 Holds, four Buys, and one Sell, according to Bloomberg. Wall Street’s consensus earnings estimate is 86 cents per share this quarter and sales of $1.21 billion, according to Bloomberg.
Harley is struggling as fewer and fewer Americans ride motorcycles. The company’s U.S. retail sales have dropped for eight consecutive quarters.
The falling sales led one analyst to
suggest the company should be making pickup trucks instead of its electric motorcycles.
During Harley’s fourth-quarter last year, the company earned half a million dollars, roughly zero cents a share, despite beating sales estimates with revenue of $1.15 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet had predicted per-share earnings of 28 cents on sales of $1.05 billion.
Investors have been waiting for more details on a trade deal with China, which would help
trade-sensitive vehicle stocks like Harley.
Another potential upside for Harley is tax refund season. A Wedbush Securities analyst wrote in March that a record level of tax refunds could provide
a tailwind for sales of pricey consumer goods like Harley.
Not every analyst is optimistic. RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a note to clients last month that
he fears Harley’s retail sales in the U.S. will decline 10% in the first quarter—which would be its ninth-consecutive drop.
Earlier this month,
Wells Fargo ’s Timothy Condor
downgraded Harley to Market Perform from Outperform. He said the stock’s post-rally “risk/reward is now less attractive at current levels amid continued heavyweight motorcycle market weakness, tariff uncertainty, and long path to stabilization.”