hmm.no edges in the markets
- Thread starter chimera
- Start date
Marketsurf's point about TA, I believe, is that retail forex traders are the most TA-centered of any trading cohort, so they're the best data set by which to judge the efficacy of TA -- and, as per tobbe's data, they mostly lose money: from 54% losers to 72% losers at the various brokerages. Certainly they lose (they just lose!) in aggregate. I don't see why Marketsurf's simple and correct observations have given rise to such relentless contention and contumely on this and other threads.
Most traders of ANY market typically lose so this isn't really saying much in my opinion.
Brokers have agreed that the main characteristics of profitable accounts are: Proper capitalization and lower leverage.
This is from studies conducted by a few different brokers now.
TA and FX has nothing to do with it.
Also, by blindly asserting that all TA fails because most FX traders lose, then you have displayed two obvious logical fallacies.
Surf has made the same errors in the same way over a few different subjects before (particularly when he wants to defend himself from people making fact based criticisms against him.) And your writing style is very similar to his.
What would be a better set of test data than retail forex? I can't think of another segment of the trading universe that better represents TA-based decision-making. If you have a suggestion -- a universe of mostly-TA traders with plenty of data points and verifiable results -- please share. Simply flaming me adds nothing.
I would wager that those FX numbers include inactive accounts that are accruing interest. Can anyone confirm or deny?
Anyone who has had an account at Velocity futures can see their daily leaderboard, and will know that on average only 5-10% of active accounts turn a profit on any given day. When you consider that it's not the same people making money each day (even losing traders have winning days), and that the P&L figs don't include fees so some of the small winners are net losers after fees, you get a picture of just how ugly things are for retail daytraders. Very, very few make consistent money.
I find it hard to believe there'd be such a wide disparity between the outcomes of futures and forex traders at the retail level.
Anyone who has had an account at Velocity futures can see their daily leaderboard, and will know that on average only 5-10% of active accounts turn a profit on any given day. When you consider that it's not the same people making money each day (even losing traders have winning days), and that the P&L figs don't include fees so some of the small winners are net losers after fees, you get a picture of just how ugly things are for retail daytraders. Very, very few make consistent money.
I find it hard to believe there'd be such a wide disparity between the outcomes of futures and forex traders at the retail level.
In addition to Rod's and yella's cogent and erudite responses--- TA is pushed heavily to FX retail via free charting platforms, education, training. Clearly, since FX dealers win when you lose---they have a vested interest in promoting TA as a viable method as its a feel good and looks easy tactic with warped and delusional cranks pushing it as a stand alone salvation to your money problems. FX dealers seize upon this delusion, pushing TA to their clients detriment. Just another obvious observation. surf