hmm.no edges in the markets

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Are you talking about Parrondo's Paradox?
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No, i had to google that. I was talking of a couple of methods that work ok together
but not all the time. Not classic MR, not classic trend following.....and referring to the classics i can now understand your reference to the paradox.
I will PM you some data.....because after all ...sincerely , it is simple stuff and there is no edge there. Im sure it is ground you have already travelled.
 
Quote from wrbtrader:

I'm curious, why did you leave your prop firm and go retail ?
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I didn't like how exposed all my stuff was at the time. I helped alot of traders and it just kind of screwed me over in the end. So i just wasn't getting any benefit out of it anymore. Also I didn't need the capital eventually either.
Even when we had bullets and conversions I would just put on a conversion in my retail account. No big deal.
I don't know how its changed now but Im assuming its fine.
 
Quote from the bouch:

I didn't like how exposed all my stuff was at the time. I helped alot of traders and it just kind of screwed me over in the end. So i just wasn't getting any benefit out of it anymore. Also I didn't need the capital eventually either.
Even when we had bullets and conversions I would just put on a conversion in my retail account. No big deal.
I don't know how its changed now but Im assuming its fine.
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Thanks for the info.
 
Quote from wrbtrader:


The fact is that most retail traders have a poor business model in comparison to prop firm traders.

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Now wait a minute. Taking a known fact and using it to validate a totally different situation is bogus.

Personally I fall back to the reasoning that a profitable retail trader has no need to even consider a prop firm because the finances should be in order. Granted, a few might like the ambience of the prop firm just like some workers like to have others around and check out her/his legs, butts and rack. Many a happy marriage was started or broken up from a glance of someone bending over at the water cooler.

But lets be honest about many retail winners, many are lone wolfs and prefer no one looking over their shoulder. Could it be in reality there are FAR MORE successful retail traders out there, all over the country and world, toiling at some individual desk cranking out some fine cash? No legs to distract, no buttons undone..........just pure trading. I would estimate the ratio to winning traders at retail to prop is at LEAST 20 to 1 for the retail guys/gals. :eek:

Notice I said: winning traders, not a bunch of new chaps trying to become a winner.

PS: that video about prop trades in London has been on YOU TUBE for a long time......... From what I remember about it........ some of them were hard pressed to make it at Burger King.. LOOK, not everyone is even cut out to give a game as tough as this a fighting chance. Not rocket science but half a brain is helpful.
 
Just to clarify, I'm not talking about all prop firms. Certainly not the ones that take your 5k and have you trade anyway you want. I'm talking about good prop firms that teach real edge. There are still a few around and there is no question anyone is better off with them than not with them. Many strategies take multi millions in buying power. If you are retail and have the money, you are insane to use it that way. Whereas a good prop firm allows you to use their capital for these types of strategies. Retail is at a serious disadvantage regardless of the dubious claims here.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Most all success in the markets is counter intuitive. That's why these price action TA folks with their feel good charts make zero sense to my experience and knowledge of what really works. surf
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High expectancy trading based on technical analysis of price action is the second most counter-intuitive thing I've ever done in my life. (The first was turning my wheels in the direction of a skid.)

Surf, despite the fact that your articles seem to focus on a lot of technical analysis, you act like you don't understand it at all.
 
Quote from bighog:

Now wait a minute. Taking a known fact and using it to validate a totally different situation is bogus.

Personally I fall back to the reasoning that a profitable retail trader has no need to even consider a prop firm because the finances should be in order. Granted, a few might like the ambience of the prop firm just like some workers like to have others around and check out her/his legs, butts and rack. Many a happy marriage was started or broken up from a glance of someone bending over at the water cooler.

But lets be honest about many retail winners, many are lone wolfs and prefer no one looking over their shoulder. Could it be in reality there are FAR MORE successful retail traders out there, all over the country and world, toiling at some individual desk cranking out some fine cash? No legs to distract, no buttons undone..........just pure trading. I would estimate the ratio to winning traders at retail to prop is at LEAST 20 to 1 for the retail guys/gals. :eek:

Notice I said: winning traders, not a bunch of new chaps trying to become a winner.

PS: that video about prop trades in London has been on YOU TUBE for a long time......... From what I remember about it........ some of them were hard pressed to make it at Burger King.. LOOK, not everyone is even cut out to give a game as tough as this a fighting chance. Not rocket science but half a brain is helpful.
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I'm not talking about "profitable retail traders" that are well capitalized.

I'm talking about ANY retail traders that starts trading as a newbie versus ANY prop firm trader that starts trading as a newbie at a prop firm. Prop firm traders will have access to more resources than the average retail trader.

Simply, the cost of trading is much higher for retail traders than the cost for trading for a prop trader...it has nothing to do with TA or price action trading as believed by others (not you) that run around ET intentionally trying to misinform ET members.

The problem is the business model for retail traders versus the business model for prop traders. Yet, don't misunderstand, I'm not saying retail traders should go prop. I'm saying every trader is in a different financial situation, different personal situation and for some retail traders it makes sense to try the prop firm thingy whereas other retail traders it makes sense to remain as the "lone wolf" as you refer to such.

I'm from a family of traders and have close personal friends that are traders as retail, prop or institutional. The retail folks (me) had it tougher and that's based upon personal observation even though the being retail has more freedom. As a retail trader, it fits very well with my personal life, family situation and gives me the type of freedom I need that my trading friends don't have that work for someone.

Anyways, 85% wash out rate for prop traders via the info from those making a living as a prop trader versus heard of the street stats that 93% retail traders wash out after 3 years while the first two years were primarily treated as a hobby. If I started all over again and if I didn't have the capital, I wouldn't hesitate to go prop because at that particular time in my life I didn't know any retail traders and all the traders I knew were floor, institutional (bank), prop or former firm traders.

On the funny side, I remember many years ago Google put out a newspaper or magazine advertisement looking for 7 traders to manage (trade) some of that king money they had. That was before the financial crisis and it took them awhile (a few months) to fill the positions. I bet had that ad ran during the financial collapse when institutional traders on Wall Street were getting sack almost on a daily basis...those 7 trader positions at Google would have been filled in minutes. :D

By the way, I started a thread a long time ago here at ET with information about all the Universities and Colleges that had trading classes and/or actual trading rooms to help some of the newbies trying to make a decision about becoming a trader...a few even offer college degrees. Wish that stuff was around when I went to college. :D

P.S. I found a different Google advertisement for traders involving Bond Traders @ http://www.businessinsider.com/goog...bid-to-make-money-off-of-cash-reserves-2010-3 (maybe they should have held a combine). :D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm talking about good prop firms that teach real edge. There are still a few around and there is no question anyone is better off with them than not with them.

surf
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Examples?
 
Quote from the bouch:

Examples?
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The best examples are in Vegas.

But there is a caveat. You are asking the wrong person(s).

If you list a particular edge of interest to you, it is very likely that someone who is authoritative can tell you the trader, his firm and the respective programmer that is handling the learning processes.

This thread has grown longer and longer and several contributors are in negative feedback loops.

The thread title leaves something to be desired. Those who do not see edges in trading are never going to prove a negative. It is not that they lack brain power or such; it is just a logical dilemma that, in fact, it is not possible to prove anything is not possible. Since they still believe they can when they can't, it is their personal mental problems that are lengthening this thread.

To shorten the thread and only have reasoned comments, go through and put these people on ignore and then read the salvaged part of this thread.
 
Quote from MarketSurfer

"Remember folks, good props teach edges inaccessible to retail. I did intra exchange option arbitrage with a prop firm. It was easy money, just swiping retail traders attempted trades before they even knew what hit them. Our speed advantage at the time was such that no one could compete in the option market. It was a beautiful thing.

As a counter to the guru post above .this one--- the most successful trader at my firm was a 22 year old ex female 2nd grade teacher with zero market experience . this is directly counter to the guru ---In addition, ask the real prop traders on this board about edge, I'm certain they will agree with me

surf"


MarketSurfer, could you explain what kind of price arbitrage you could swipe from the retail traders? Would you kindly provide a example, in some of the older trading books on Futures, I read about guys buying gold in London, selling it in Hong Kong instantly when their was a price arbitrage. How did this work in the Options Market, did you have some type of scanning device picking up option orders way below market-value?


I saw some giant situations go down, example I can think off my head, stock XYZ is flying and options price is:

$3.3 x $3.6 and the stock is flying fast. Some big guy drops 7500 contracts using a Reserve Book of 500 contracts a pop with ISE and CBOE. Before this Whale drops his contracts, the bid was $3.5x $3.9 with 350x250 bid/ask size. I watch as the stock is picking up more upside steam busting into a new intra-day high. The Sell order for those 7500 contracts is a limit order of 3.30. Three prints past by at @500@$3.50, 500@$3.42, 500@$3.40, 500@$3.30 until his entire book is eliminated. The stock was a heavy volume stock, the weird option pricing did nothing to the underlying stock price.

I buy 500@ $3.30 contracts, meanwhile real Bid should be $4.10x 4.3 and finally after the Reserve Book is empty, the new Market is $4.6x$4.90 because the stock was moving quicker. Was this the kind of arbitrage you spoke of with your Prop firm?

Would you mind explaining in a bit more detail what Arb-Option pricing you saw?
 
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