hmm.no edges in the markets
- Thread starter chimera
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Quote from wrbtrader:
surf once refer to this as "voodoo" whenever someone talked about their own psychology as a key part of the puzzle to successful trading. That's where I and many others have said the edge is the "trader" and how he/she uses the tools they have.
By the way, you should get a android or iPad. You can be outside and chat at the same time online.
Yeah, I have a droid, but responding to ET while working around the farm is rarely possible. But here I am doing it.
Teach teach teach, be taught be taught be taught. We see it again and again in your posts, how about building the knowledge base and mind to create(Which takes hard work experiment and experinence)..if you knew anything about edges that did not come in a can you would likely head your own fund, but you are a doorman for capital and flip some ym on the side..its very natural surf, having struggled for a long time, then being exposed to those who are competent, its very natural to think you have witnessed the holy grail and finaly be able to throw the rest out of the window, to cast what has frustrated you for so long to one side, as the junk you can finaly claim it is..
Consistently profitable trading definitely flies in the face of human nature.
Human nature wants to get in at tops and bottoms (get the best possible deal), and human nature will be imprinted with the memory of times when it succeeds in doing this because of the huge ego gratification that ensues and will sweep under the rug the failures (addiction to random rewards).
Human nature finds it very easy to do what feels right at the time even if there's no statistical evidence backing up the decision (and even when statistical evidence is against it), and human nature is conditioned to believe that you must fight for what you believe in and when something feels right it's easy to believe in it, and so human nature ensures that most traders will trade their bias rather than a positive expectancy plan.
When what you've been doing is wrong and you're a losing trader, doing what's right will feel wrong. Human nature finds it very difficult to do what feels wrong because that would require acting against its beliefs.
Even when presented with objective statistical evidence backing up actions that produce the best possible overall result, human nature ensures that most people will act on their beliefs.
Do you have an edge? You are hired! Too funny!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-27/cohen-sac-capital-sought-edge-prosecutors-say.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-27/cohen-sac-capital-sought-edge-prosecutors-say.html
I tell my students, "I have an edge. Look at this winning trade." Luckily, only about 1 of 10 will ask more. I think keep using this word "edge" as a matter-of-fact, but when I say "nobody knows where the market is going" I wonder if they will figure it out...
I also had a guy ask if paying $2000 for a course was smart, leaving him with only $3000 to trade with.
since the money was going to me, I told him "with an edge, you will make that back ten-fold. but no guarantees"
I also had a guy ask if paying $2000 for a course was smart, leaving him with only $3000 to trade with.
since the money was going to me, I told him "with an edge, you will make that back ten-fold. but no guarantees"
Please pay attention to this woman. The stuff she posts will save you decades and thousands of dollars. But here's the deal. She and I have TOTALLY different styles. I am a mean reversion guy. I have skyped with Donna, and have tried to make the momentum thing work, and I think I may be a little ahead in the game, but I realized it wasn't for me.
There is no one true method. We may disagree on a few things, but the underlying psychology and fundamentals are critical.
This isn't funny in the least.
I see the media trying to make the word "edge" a dirty word. Folks need to remember there are legal edges and they have nothing to do with charts or past price of single instrument's dance. They are powerful and they work.
surf
I was automatically cited by the SEC while using charts and past price of single instruments. when I was cited, it was specifically in reference to a specific single instrument.
The SEC, at that time, was profiling traders who behaved in a particular manner.
I hope you read about the latest SEC citations which are much different than those in the past under the name still used in this article.
The edge being discussed in the article is referred to as an "information" edge.
As my citations piled up and as the SEC could not understand what I did (and still do). It turned out that they came up with an unexpected conclusion.
while the paper work was lengthy, it could be summarized, that a person sitting in Poughkeepsie, NY and doing a full time job "Could not know that many people".
The evidence the SEC was seeing was "entering before an instrument took a big rise".
We all know why stocks take sudden rises. Owners refuse to sell and new buyers chase the stock value to become owners.
In one paticular stock, MLPF and B got seriously fined. ML took it upon itself to tell others what I traded. ML also knew my phonecalls came from my desk at IBM. So ML "created" a connection between the stock (Tang Industries) and IBM by speaking works that they made up from their own minds. This was "embelishing" my recent buy.
I liked the fact that ML always told a lot of people I just bought something. In trading it is known that the cause of price change is market buy orders facing few limit sell orders. It has always been known as "tape reading" in those days before PC's.
So Tang and Watson stood together before the invited press at the NYC SEC offices and set the world straight on the reality.
For me going from 4 to 22 was a nice trip. I did not take the short move to 10 that followed the SEC sponsored announcement.
When the SEC thunk up its conclusion about me, all my citations were removed. and there was an agreement that when my trades showed up in the future, the SEC would not go through its mistaken citing procedure.
this thread is explaining that today charts do not work.
At the time of the example, there were no charts available.
I reasoned that making charts was a visual advantage. So I made charts to be able to make money with monitoring and analyzing trends. As DBPhoenix says in his thread title: If you can draw a line, ....etc. etc.
Drawing the LTL of a short is a terrific way to see how to get the herd to push your eearly entry. Nodoji explains the 1,2,3 she uses. x marks her spot. I replaced confirmation with quality. I was on my way by the time ML got the herd involved to push my long trades.
The SEC used account trading analysis for multiple account people. If your P&L was unbelievable, then the SEC watched more closely.
Fortunately the SEC was consistent in always making mistakes and drawing the wrong oonclusions.
so I quit working and moved to Grennwich, then Switzerland and finally to bucks County PA. I used a small Philly broker and always gave a chat the last thursday of the month to explain how to plan for the month ahead. By that time S&P was furnishing my classroom with a full brokerage service free of charge. my students ALWAYS loved to do trading. Part of the activity was doing daily charts by plotting on clean printed P, V charts. One wall of the classrom was small shelves floor to cieling for piles of annual reports. They did the 7 Keys to Value as provided by the NYSE which we visited on the 29th each tear.... lol If we had a B'day, guys would gather on the floor and sing to the balcony where we were (centuries before the glass was put up).
To review the cirriculum of the course they took , google Environmental Math. It was before the "present" definition of environment; in those days it meant money environment.