hmm.no edges in the markets

[sheda]

Quote from marketsurfer:

No, not impossible. Heck, astrologers can make profits --- my point is no edge is gained by using just a chart to trade. And In fact, charts are detrimental when used alone, Markets are way too complex to allow profits from supposed repeating patterns again and again.

Does one need an edge to be profitable? Theres constantly so much talk of "edge" yet edge does not equate to the only path to profit. My main two patterns that result in $$$ again and again are the market going up and the market going down. The markets are complex and so is the engine in my motorbike, but I just ride it...

If we can agree that one can get by without an "edge" and one can infact make it with charts, then perhaps its not all as negative as you thought and you can focus on some positives.

You seem to promote random entry as a viable method, backed up with money and trade management, putting aside that some promote managed entry, focusing on set ups that they have found to be statistically relevant, what do you actualy suggest for use outside of charts thats accessible to someone who does not want to work for a prop firm and can not gain access to institutional infrastructure, and more to the point, whats your edge?

 

[Steve Tvardek]

Quote from sheda:

What you saw was window dressing, so that when potential retail traders walked by or even entered the offices they were given the impression that money can be made using charts and price action, its the grand conspiracy, to send generation after generation to the market with TA, keeps the edge men in the know in the money!

Sarcasm?

 

[bh_prop]

Very thorough explanation - thank you sir.

Quote from jack hershey:

Attached is the explanation you need.

Use the A band chart and the Modrian Table from page 2 of the "contest" thread.

sorry for the delay

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from sheda:

Does one need an edge to be profitable? Theres constantly so much talk of "edge" yet edge does not equate to the only path to profit. My main two patterns that result in $$$ again and again are the market going up and the market going down. The markets are complex and so is the engine in my motorbike, but I just ride it...

If we can agree that one can get by without an "edge" and one can infact make it with charts, then perhaps its not all as negative as you thought and you can focus on some positives.

You seem to promote random entry as a viable method, backed up with money and trade management, putting aside that some promote managed entry, focusing on set ups that they have found to be statistically relevant, what do you actualy suggest for use outside of charts thats accessible to someone who does not want to work for a prop firm and can not gain access to institutional infrastructure, and more to the point, whats your edge?

No, you can be profitable without an edge it's just a matter of how long. The bigger your edge, the less need for money management. I don't promote random entry but I believe reasonable random entry is equivalent to or better than TA price action type entries. For me, the only price action that matters is the price action that occurs after I enter the trade.

TA based entries are not statistically relevant, you and others are misusing this term--- if they were your system wouldn't need you to operate and could be automated.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Charts can be used as part of a complete trading program to describe or illustrate what has happened then to fit that into the overall plan to gain context. - just because you see charts doesn't mean decisions are being made because of them.

This is your second most absurd post I've ever seen.

The most absurd was "high readings on the PD's will be used to say enter now, move coming but direction not clear".

Quote from marketsurfer:

The price action TA traders claim all you need is a chart to profit in the market--- this is not true and dangerous thinking----- charts alone are deceptive --- Beware of those who claim otherwise and that all they use is a chart and money management.

I don't know anyone who claims that. Obviously, you also need an order entry platform.

Quote from marketsurfer:

TA based entries are not statistically relevant, you and others are misusing this term--- if they were your system wouldn't need you to operate and could be automated.

My core system is automated.

My friend who spent hundreds of hours with me over a multi-month stretch of time as we honed price action trading methods also automated it and has been consistently profitable with it for nearly a couple years now.

 

[sheda]

Quote from marketsurfer:

No, you can be profitable without an edge it's just a matter of how long.

Probably for longer, edges come and go as you well know but anyone who has cracked the market in their own way without the hand of god (prop or institutional advantages above the rest- as you have said time and again) has what it takes to adjust to conditions as they evolve.

I don't promote random entry but I believe reasonable random entry is equivalent to or better than TA price action type entries. For me, the only price action that matters is the price action that occurs after I enter the trade.

Whats a reasonable random entry? To me, saying the only price action that matters is that which takes place after I enter a trade is on par with saying the only traffic movement that matters and is worthy of my attention is the traffic coming towards me when I have already walked into the road and am in its path. We are talking trading here not long term investment and huge positions that take days to build.

Again, what would you suggest people use outside of charts and if, as you agree, one can get by with TA and charts, why do you come down so hard on it?

 

[marketsurfer]

A reasonable random entry is if all signs are for a bullish day, go long at random times without paying attention to past price. After you enter, then you can look to manage it --

Lets say on NFP day the number comes in at 830am way better than expected and multiple DJIA firms are xpected to report blowout earnings--- going long randomly throughout this day would likely yield the identical or better results than TA based entries. That is what I call a reasonable random entry. Fighting the bullish signals and shorting randomly is not a reasonable action therefore not included in my opinion.

 

[Steve Tvardek]

Glad to hear that the automation was successful.

Quote from NoDoji:



My core system is automated.

My friend who spent hundreds of hours with me over a multi-month stretch of time as we honed price action trading methods also automated it and has been consistently profitable with it for nearly a couple years now.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from NoDoji:

.

1. This is your second most absurd post I've ever seen.



2. I don't know anyone who claims that. Obviously, you also need an order entry platform.




3. My core system is automated.

4. My friend who spent hundreds of hours with me over a multi-month stretch of time as we honed price action trading methods also automated it and has been consistently profitable with it for nearly a couple years now.

1. You disagree with Brett Steinbarger and many others with far more capital and experience in the market than you have---

1a-- you don't understand volatility could be up or down and PDs forecast volatility not direction?

2. Obviously, but some FX charts allow you to enter directly from the chart

3. I don't believe you

4. I think you have been misled or are confused.


Sorry, that's the way I see it. No offense meant as you truly seem like a nice and very funny lady.


surf

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

A reasonable random entry is if all signs are for a bullish day, go long at random times without paying attention to past price. After you enter, then you can look to manage it --

Lets say on NFP day the number comes in at 830am way better than expected and multiple DJIA firms are xpected to report blowout earnings--- going long randomly throughout this day would likely yield the identical or better results than TA based entries. That is what I call a reasonable random entry. Fighting the bullish signals and shorting randomly is not a reasonable action therefore not included in my opinion.

So if there are bullish "signs" such as a jobs report that's way better than expected, and expectations for future results (DJIA expected to blow out earnings), you would simply go long without waiting for the institutional traders to react to this news and these expectations first?

What if the market opened and price began dropping hard? You'd still go long?

What if price dropped hard, bounced back up to where the pre-market support had been established and started dropping again? You'd still go long?

Do you know how often the crude oil inventory report is, on the surface, extremely bullish or bearish and after the initial algo-driven reaction to that core number, price commences to run the other way for two hours or more? (Answer: more than 50% of the time)

So you're telling noobs here to jump in based on the bias of news and expectations, and think about trade management after they're positioned.

And I'm telling noobs to trade based on how the "big boys" actually trade the news and expectations, using the footprints of price movement around previous key price support and resistance levels, with an advance plan for risk management and profit-taking.

And I'm the snake-oil pusher who's luring in noobs and driving them to certain financial ruin?



(FWIW, once price blows thru a previous key S/R level, I do agree that a random entry in the direction of the freight train is far less risky than a counter-move position.)