HLF

Maverick74 said:
Huh? LOL. OK.
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What?!
So they're selling on AMZN. bfd
The entire business is built on recruiting distributors. Selling on AMZN is terrible for them because it flattens out the retail price of the stuff. People will sell it at cost just to get rid of it. As soon as one person offers it at a certain price, the next person comes in and beats them by $1. Its a race to the bottom.

Here's the top owners.
Icahn may be in an ego war... but wait till one of these other players gets sick of this thing. It hasn't been above $70 in 3 years except a spike on 7/15 last year.
Watch the top line line Mav, not the earnings beat I'm sure will happen.
There is no growth here.

1. ICAHN CARL C 22,500,000
2. CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS 7,787,521
3. DECCAN VALUE INVESTORS L.P. 7,647,712
4. FMR LLC 6,207,051
5. VANGUARD GROUP INC 6,119,947

Don't forget... the CEO is out on 6/1
 
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vanzandt said:
What?!
So they're selling on AMZN. bfd
The entire business is built on recruiting distributors. Selling on AMZN is terrible for them because it flattens out the retail price of the stuff. People will sell it at cost just to get rid of it. As soon as one person offers it at a certain price, the next person comes in and beats them by $1. Its a race to the bottom.

Here's the top owners.
Icahn may be in an ego war... but wait till one of these other players gets sick of this thing. It hasn't been above $70 in 3 years except a spike on 7/15 last year.
Watch the top line line Mav, not the earnings beat I'm sure will happen.
There is no growth here.

1. ICAHN CARL C 22,500,000
2. CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS 7,787,521
3. DECCAN VALUE INVESTORS L.P. 7,647,712
4. FMR LLC 6,207,051
5. VANGUARD GROUP INC 6,119,947

Don't forget... the CEO is out on 6/1
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What is your edge in this trade?

You have a broad market making new highs every day pulling this stock with it.

You have a short interest carry on the shares you short.

You have a short ratio off the chart (over 25!!!!).

So knowing there is an opportunity cost for your capital, what is your edge here? And don't say that it's going down, that is not an edge or everyone on ET would be billionaires.
 
Maverick74 said:
What is your edge in this trade?

You have a broad market making new highs every day pulling this stock with it.

You have a short interest carry on the shares you short.

You have a short ratio off the chart (over 25!!!!).

So knowing there is an opportunity cost for your capital, what is your edge here? And don't say that it's going down, that is not an edge or everyone on ET would be billionaires.
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Alright Mav... you're right ;)
Sky's the limit. Whats your target?
 
vanzandt said:
Alright Mav... you're right ;)
Sky's the limit. Whats your target?
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No, you're not getting it. Look, I'm trying to make you more critical of your own trading. You are very lazy the way you go about doing this. Maybe this is a hobby for you and your day job is in accounting. If that's the case then this is a moot point. But I'm trying to get you to think about your thesis and structure your trade accordingly.

Here is an example. IF "I" were to short this with conviction, the first thing I would is buy the S&P as a hedge. Remove the overall market risk. Two, use options to short the stock and avoid the daily short interest. Yes, the interest will be embedded in the puts but I can still lay it off. Three, maybe add a long term backspread out in Jan to cover the short covering risk which is huge in this stock.

So look at what we have here, a general thesis, you don't like the stock and you think it's going down. We spread off the market risk, layoff the short carry, hedge the upside in case of a runaway short squeeze and structure maybe a risk reversal in the options to capture the downside. THAT is what I want out of you. Not "I think this is going down so I'm going to short it". There is still no thesis on the short itself but let's take it as a given that you have put countless hours of research into this and the thesis is valid. If trading is just a hobby to you then by all means, "play around" because who cares if you lose money right. Hobbies are suppose to lose money.
 
Maverick74 said:
No, you're not getting it. Look, I'm trying to make you more critical of your own trading. You are very lazy the way you go about doing this. Maybe this is a hobby for you and your day job is in accounting. If that's the case then this is a moot point. But I'm trying to get you to think about your thesis and structure your trade accordingly.

Here is an example. IF "I" were to short this with conviction, the first thing I would is buy the S&P as a hedge. Remove the overall market risk. Two, use options to short the stock and avoid the daily short interest. Yes, the interest will be embedded in the puts but I can still lay it off. Three, maybe add a long term backspread out in Jan to cover the short covering risk which is huge in this stock.

So look at what we have here, a general thesis, you don't like the stock and you think it's going down. We spread off the market risk, layoff the short carry, hedge the upside in case of a runaway short squeeze and structure maybe a risk reversal in the options to capture the downside. THAT is what I want out of you. Not "I think this is going down so I'm going to short it". There is still no thesis on the short itself but let's take it as a given that you have put countless hours of research into this and the thesis is valid. If trading is just a hobby to you then by all means, "play around" because who cares if you lose money right. Hobbies are suppose to lose money.
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Quality post Mav. I know you know your stuff.
Good lookin out. ;)
 
vanzandt said:
They are estimated to report on 5/4.
One analyst follows them (too easy to lowball without other analysts keeping you honest). That means they will blow away estimate. ($.87) Perhaps by even 50%.
That'll be the day to short.
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I almost missed them cuz they are not due to report earnings for another 2 weeks. Hmmnn...
 
Maverick74 said:
Hey Zanman, there are 30 million shares short in the float. Avg volume is a mil a day. Do the math. You don't need a calculator.
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They report after the bell.
I say they beat earnings estimates of .89 but miss on revenue.
 
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