Hit new highs or crash?
- Thread starter failed_trad3r
- Start date
Interesting forecast by an individual who called the tops in 2000 and 2007 - calling for the same in early 2014, all for the same reason: Fed tightening at the top of a mania.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showth...-Last-Bubble-Eric-Janszen?p=274911#post274911
Could it be getting close to time to switch sides? I still remember my "first time" as a trader, piling into BP puts during the gulf blowout. Doubled my account in a couple weeks (then bled it down to zero in the next 6 months, LOL).
Bear markets rule.
:eek:
*edit- just remembered, he called the top in silver about a day early. Freaky accuracy!
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showth...-Last-Bubble-Eric-Janszen?p=274911#post274911
Could it be getting close to time to switch sides? I still remember my "first time" as a trader, piling into BP puts during the gulf blowout. Doubled my account in a couple weeks (then bled it down to zero in the next 6 months, LOL).
Bear markets rule.
:eek:
*edit- just remembered, he called the top in silver about a day early. Freaky accuracy!
Interesting forecast by an individual who called the tops in 2000 and 2007 - calling for the same in early 2014, all for the same reason: Fed tightening at the top of a mania.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showth...-Last-Bubble-Eric-Janszen?p=274911#post274911
Could it be getting close to time to switch sides? I still remember my "first time" as a trader, piling into BP puts during the gulf blowout. Doubled my account in a couple weeks (then bled it down to zero in the next 6 months, LOL).
Bear markets rule.
:eek:
*edit- just remembered, he called the top in silver about a day early. Freaky accuracy!
Fed isn't tightening rates this year. The fed is only tapering so far.
Just checked the other indices and sure enough, the Russel is the only one below its trend line. It sometimes leads the others but if the rebound continues next week (as predicted 
) the long term up trends will remain intact, though overbought.
Will Chairman Yellen allow the taper to continue? Are The Markets just bluffing with their tantrum?
One thing is fairly reliable in times like this: sentiment gets to extremes at turning points. Suckers get very confident at the end of a trend, having finally jumped in.
:eek:
) the long term up trends will remain intact, though overbought.Will Chairman Yellen allow the taper to continue? Are The Markets just bluffing with their tantrum?
One thing is fairly reliable in times like this: sentiment gets to extremes at turning points. Suckers get very confident at the end of a trend, having finally jumped in.
:eek:
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There is a fundamental problem that prevents a market crash from occurring.
1. QE3 has 6 months to go.
2. FED funds are at ~0%.
3. There is still skepticism on ET. It's usually the type of people on ET that get handed the bag before the market sinks 60%.
When these 3 things are no longer in play, that's when the music stops.
1929 crash - October
1987 crash - October
2007 crash - October
There is a trend here.
1. QE3 has 6 months to go.
2. FED funds are at ~0%.
3. There is still skepticism on ET. It's usually the type of people on ET that get handed the bag before the market sinks 60%.
When these 3 things are no longer in play, that's when the music stops.
1929 crash - October
1987 crash - October
2007 crash - October
There is a trend here.
I would love a good old crash. For some reason I find it easier to make money quickly on the short side, maybe that's just my natural bias.
That said I am kind of resigned to the fact that this market will keep rising. As someone said above "this isn't even a real market" anymore, and I agree. This market is corrupt beyond recognition. It's basically just a big money grab for the elite.
That said I am kind of resigned to the fact that this market will keep rising. As someone said above "this isn't even a real market" anymore, and I agree. This market is corrupt beyond recognition. It's basically just a big money grab for the elite.
I believe market will go down on Monday. Here are my facts:
1- It rallied 2 days on bad news in a knee jerk reaction to its recent big drops so on Monday market should be more realistic
2- Oil is over $100 and it will push inflation higher and dampen recovery
3- Fed is determined to taper QE no matter what happens in the coming days to the stock market.
4- Trend of general profit taking because of market rally in the last couple of years has just started.
Note: Now that I typing DOW future is up 14 points. Sunday 6:55 PM ET
300 points drop on Monday is quite possible to wipe out Thursday and Friday's gain.
1- It rallied 2 days on bad news in a knee jerk reaction to its recent big drops so on Monday market should be more realistic
2- Oil is over $100 and it will push inflation higher and dampen recovery
3- Fed is determined to taper QE no matter what happens in the coming days to the stock market.
4- Trend of general profit taking because of market rally in the last couple of years has just started.
Note: Now that I typing DOW future is up 14 points. Sunday 6:55 PM ET
300 points drop on Monday is quite possible to wipe out Thursday and Friday's gain.
I don't think that a major crash happens just yet. Could be another decade....who knows? Ray Dalio did a great job of explaining the leveraging and deleveraging process that drives the market cycle. That explanation also explains why some crashes are major (1929 and 2007) and some are major but only short-term (1987). It'll probably be another 70 years before we see another depression but a crash could occur in the next decade or so.
WTF
This Yellen must be Bernanke on steroids. Why do I even bother...
Where you at, failed?
Yellen just spoke to CONgress today and The Market hasn't yet figured out what it wants to do.
Are you still short?