HISTORYMarch 17: "Reversal" Starts: DOW/SP double bottom-Oil/Gold/Euro 'bubble' burst

This period is approximately the same as the period from 1965 - 1975. During that time, the market was bound within a wide range for a long time, until finally it broke in 72 - 74. Volatility increased and then collapsed.
I figure it'll be similar this time, for the same approximate reason: at that time, as the baby boomers came out of their teens and into their twenties, they either went to college and then looked for a job, or looked for a job. In the first case, their parents had to shell out money to educate them first, and some of that money had to come from the market. Then society had to find a place for them. In the second case, society had to find a place for them, which was OK until you had the overhang of the soldiers drafted for Vietnam hitting the bricks at the same time as the normal demand from the demographic pressure, which of course happened at the same time as the oil crisis and Watergate.
This time, the children of the boomers (the "echo") are going to college and getting a job, or just getting a job. Just like back then, this means the parents have to shell out money for their education. A lot of that money has to come from the market. Pile the housing crisis and the commodities boom on top of that, and the picture doesn't look good. I figure volatility will rise as we lurch around, pulled up by some Fed action and then down by reality.
Bull market in volatility, but not much else.
 
Quote from Jayford:
A) US household debt now at 140% of after tax revenue. Not only a record, but actually parabolic compared to historical averages.

U.S. Gross Federal Debt Held by the Public

B) US consumers can no longer use their homes as an ATM, which is what has driven the economy since 2003 in the first place.

Real estate prices in Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco

Where is the growth going to come from?

ISM Purchasing Manufactures Index
Job Losses and Gains in the U.S. (1995-2005)
 
Quote from increasenow:

HISTORY Begins on March 17: "Reversal" Starts:
***DOW/SP bounces off a 3 month double bottom
***Oil/Gold/Euro 'bubble' burst, now in Bearish slide
***market has accepted FEd will always act and rescue
***worst of credit mess behind, market has accepted this
***cash moves from commodities in huge dump back into stocks
***upcoming earnings will point to brighter future as bottom is behind...
***market will see improving economic numbers and not so good numbers will be shrugged off

honestly...prove me wrong...what makes the DOW/SP go lower (break final support) than this 3 month double bottom and what makes Oil/Gold/Euro find current standing support and retrace upward?...the dollar truly is strengthening...REMEMBER MARCH 17..."REVERSAL DAY" for DOW/SP and Oil/Gold/Euro/USD...go ahead and prove this wrong...I'm open to any logical and researched thought...


Holy Cow! You are so positive I just fell off my granite counter tops posting this message...I love to see positivity on ET forums. Enough of this doom and gloom and nascent pessimism.
 
You are no better than the "doom and gloom" crowd. You are overly optimistic and close your eyes to the environment around you unless it fits your bullish viewpoint.

Plus you are a coward for changing your screen name from Day7793 to Hedgefundtrader2 and pretending like you didnt.

I KNOW YOU DID, COWARD.

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

Holy Cow! You are so positive I just fell off my granite counter tops posting this message...I love to see positivity on ET forums. Enough of this doom and gloom and nascent pessimism.
 
Quote from PAPA ROACH:

1. The consumer, who makes up 70% of GDP is still underwater, regardless of credit markets starting to work again

2. Lending will never be what it was in the "Free money for all" liar loans era

3. Unemployment will continue to rise for awhile, (see #1)

4. Inflation is still hurting the consumer like a big tax hike. A correction in the commodity bull, or the end of the commodity bull will not show up in lower prices on the majority of things for a long time, (see #1)

5. The level of drunken consumerism experienced over the last 5 years will not be seen again for at least a decade.

6. No drunken consumerism, no more record earnings. The debts created have not been wiped away, only redistibuted for now.

7. And for the most important piece, stock trad3r has returned to the board with his perma-bull rantings, always a bad sign for further economic problems.

I for one won't argue a corrective rally that may even trend for several weeks, however, the parameters that created the last bull are broken. If you're looking for a resumption of the bull with new highs, you need to rethink the underlying fundamentals. We are in a sideways, rangebound market for a long time AT BEST.

PAPA ROACH,

MORE doom and gloom from a perpetual pessimist on board. Have you read tales from the crypt from Nouriel Roubini? They are as gloomy as they can be .. straight out of the graveyard.
 
Quote from Cocaine:

You are no better than the "doom and gloom" crowd. You are overly optimistic and close your eyes to the environment around you unless it fits your bullish viewpoint.

Plus you are a coward for changing your screen name from Day7793 to Hedgefuntrader2 and pretending like you didnt.

I KNOW YOU DID, COWARD.


I chose not to respond.

Please refrain from personal attacks. I will not hesitate to deliver your post to the moderators of this forum.
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

PAPA ROACH,

MORE doom and gloom from a perpetual pessimist on board. Have you read tales from the crypt from Nouriel Roubini? They are as gloomy as they can be .. straight out of the graveyard.

Call it what you wan't, but I read non-fiction whem it comes to my money. You seem to read fiction romance.
 
You just did repond and I'm not attacking you, Im stating a fact. You used to be Day7793 and you are now Hedgefundtrader2. This isnt an attack, this is a fact brother

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

I chose not to respond.

Please refrain from personal attacks. I will not hesitate to deliver your post to the moderators of this forum.
 
hedgefundtrader, i will never understand your crowd. Why do you persist to be extremely optimistic no matter what facts are presented before you. There is a reason we broke so much off of our highs. There is a reason the housing markets collapsed off the highs. I am not a pessimest by any means, but if do not want to short, and your options are "buy, or don't buy". Right now would be one of the times to be patient, and not buy. We don't need to buy it right on the bottom. Let the market make a bottom, change the trend, then follow it. If you have an oppurtunity to enter the market whenever you want, with as much capital as you want, wouldn't you want to enter when the odds are stacked in your favor. All I'm saying is wait till the market proves itself. Then you can go back to being a permabull:p .
 
Quote from mokwit:

Answers interjecte below with @.

03-22-08 12:26 PM



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Honestly, I really don't believe that you actually have any money on the line. Granted, there may well be a ST suckers rally as the propaganda machine is saying the problem is over* and the vacum is above with some people still bidding so in the absence of bad news the line of least resistance is up. We are actually in something of a dead zone as Joe 401k has taken losses that are too big to take so he is not redeeming (Accredited investor in Hedge funds will be blocked form doing so) - if it goes significantly lower he will and there will be a cascade.

* Banks didn't fail in 1929, they failed 1930 onwards.

This is NOT 1929. This is 2008.
 
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