Historical probablility based exits ?

Quote from Aston01:

Thanks Ronblack, that was definitely in the ball park of what I am looking for. Do you happen to know if this type of analysis has a conventional name? I would sure like to be able to find more information on the topic.
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It is mainly called quantitative trading with the use of statistics and time series analysis.

Decalog is one of the top blogs in this area. He uses mainly R in his analysis. Very knowledgeable guy.

Ernie Chan has written several books and he is mainly doing reversion to the mean.

In terms of a direct measure of probability the Price Action Lab blog has some good ideas, including an indicator based on price pattern ensembles and the other one I mentioned.

You can find links to other websites in the above blogs.

You are absolutely correct, most traders use an event based decision process and this is the major cause of the high failure rate because the mean return in the longer term from such process is negative once trading costs are accounted for. Good luck to you.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

For me, developing a consistently profitable trading plan was based purely on probabilities of price movements within price action environments that, historically, have repeated again and again (strong trend, channeling trend, wide range, narrow range). The fact is: 95% of aspiring traders don't do this research in a thorough and objective manner.
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If you think what you post works, then start a journal and post in real-time. Do not post any blotter. Just real-time entry and exit.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

If you think what you post works, then start a journal and post in real-time. Do not post any blotter. Just real-time entry and exit.
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Hmmm...what I do works pretty darn good. Would starting a journal and posting entries and exits in real time make it work better? Seems I might get distracted. I used to post all my trades in chat rooms, but found that as an intraday scalper of (what used to be) a volatile instrument, I do much better when I just focus on my charts and trade.
 
I am no longer a member of ET. It is time to quit this for good. I will look once in awhile but no more posts, NO MORE POSTS. No mod will feel good deleting my honest and hard posts anymore. It is a shame some can not handle reality.

HOG.....OVER and OUT
 
Quote from Aston01:

With access to historical data we have the benefit of being able to go back and look at what happened in the past and compare it to similar events see how common an occurrence this was. I have seen a lot of different exit strategies, but most revolve around some concept of stops, percentages, indicators and etc...

I try not to reinvent the wheel if possible so I was hoping to hear if this was an established concept with I name I could further research.
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You talking about historical probabilities involving market seasonal tendencies (entries and exits) associated with specific trading instruments. :confused:

If so, its something that's commonly used more by institutional traders or traders in specific markets like in commodities. Thus, not commonly used by retail traders.

There's other historical probabilities associated with Index Futures involving intraday price movements link to specific types of key market events. For example, how the price action behaves (a historical intraday tendency) on day 1 to day 2 after a volatile FOMC announcement, how price action behaves during presidential elections and so on.

Once again, these are not things commonly used by retail traders unless they had worked prior as an institutional trader, floor trader and so on.

If the above is not what you're talking about, I recommend taking a look at the stuff that ronblack has mentioned.
 
Code: 
import Quandl
import pandas as pd
import scipy.stats as ss
df=Quandl.get(u'GOOG/NASDAQ_GOOG')
avg=df[-30:].Close.mean()
sd=df[-30:].Close.std()
ss.laplace(avg,sd).cdf(df.Close.tail(1))
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Hmmm...what I do works pretty darn good. Would starting a journal and posting entries and exits in real time make it work better? Seems I might get distracted. I used to post all my trades in chat rooms, but found that as an intraday scalper of (what used to be) a volatile instrument, I do much better when I just focus on my charts and trade.
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The journal will establish whether what you say works or does not work.

When you were reading my journal, you saw facts in front of your eyes in real time.
 
Did you research NoDoji post history ?

She's already done the real-time trade posting thingy and has done the before the fact trade journal thingy before you were a member here or around the time you became a new member.

You now want her to do it again just for you ?

Another way to look at it, is there a time limit like 1 year, 5 years or 10 years that one must do real-time calls so that they don't have to do it again for someone else that doesn't feel like reading the old information when it was done already in the past ?

Yet, maybe you already knew she's done the real-time calls and trade journal stuff in the past but you just want here to do it "again" because today's markets are different than markets a few years ago. Geeesh, all of this "in the closet" or "behind the barn" behavior involving mine is bigger than yours is kind'uv silly don't you think...especially considering she doesn't even have the same type of genitals as you. :p
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

The journal will establish whether what you say works or does not work.

When you were reading my journal, you saw facts in front of your eyes in real time.
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Since developing a system that works, I've posted many real time trades (entries and exits) to demonstrate specific price action setups I use and my thought processes behind the trades (as recently as a few days ago, in fact), and often include charts for visual illustration.

I also kept my daily trading journal here for nearly two years (it's under the Hall of Fame list that appears to the left when you log in to ET).

When I was reading your journal I saw you post R:R's when in fact you never posted stop loss and profit target levels at the time of the "trades". Without these at the time of the call, we have no idea what the R:R is.
 
Quote from wrbtrader:

You now want her to do it again just for you ?
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I'd love to connect with TJ on Skype and hear him make advance trade calls based on his models with max stop loss and minimum target at the time of the order placement. I did that in ET's chat room for months and I did it a couple years later with a Skype group for about 7 months all day long :cool:
 
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