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High Unemployment And Low Inflation....
- Thread starter libertad
- Start date
Quote from Debaser82:
I agree you can not blame anyone for not having picked the bottom in march after one of the biggest market crashes of all time but could you say the same about people who were 100% long in the stockmarket going into 2008?
people "who were long" has absolutely nothing to do with timing the low in march. No one can do this regularly, so it is a pointless argument.
M
morganist
Quote from makloda:
The boomers will have to rely on income (bonds, dividends, working) rather than asset speculation (stock prices, real estate) for their retirement. An entire generation that thought they'd all be millionaires when they're 60 suddenly realizing they're a dime a dozen.
the boomers expected too much now it is coming back on them. it is all down to greed. if they made wise decisions rather than trying to be rich it would not happen.
Quote from Debaser82:
There was a bank in my country (Fortis). More then 200 years old and trough a series of acquisitions one of Europes new banking giants with a stockprice of +30 Euro a share not more then a year or 2 ago.
The most widespread stock in my country from pension funds to retirees, teachers, the royal family, housewives and nuns.
As good as government bonds but the stock offers a higher yield.
Anyway, to cut the story short they kept saying everything was AOK, then Lehman failed and creditmarkets shut, turns out they were sitting on a huge pile of shit, the group was partially nationalised, partially sold to BNP Paribas.
Stockholders holding the bag at 0.50 euro a share for some unsellable toxic CDO's and 20% of the insurance company.
Today the stock is at 2.60.
That's a 400% rise in 6 months and I know both personally a whole range of people who bought bellow 1 euro as there are many people on messageboards who have made the same decission to buy cheap even though 'the fundamentals were badly deteriorated.
So you have the majority of the population brutaly awakened to the notion that what they thought to be safe wasnt that safe in reality and you have a minority who gained from betting against the odds.
Harsh but hasnt this been the way it has always been?
And now the population is on a saving binge because at least that way you will get to keep your money.
Has the herd became savy at last?
As you think about things, it is very worthwhile to work through, intellectually, who controls the market.
It is also very important to consider whether or not the market is right or wrong and how often.
For me, using logic turned out to be very significant.
You bring up the matter of fundamentals as well. Recently Justin Fox published years of work on the history and validity of those working in the financial industry. I am rereading it to soup up my copious notes and to construct an index that allows me to cross reference the meat that Justin did not understand or digest.
I find it to be very clear that 400% profits were on the table for anyone who wished to do the "taking".
This investing or trading is something else. Being actively involved for over 50 years and having sorted out things long ago, it is really significant to be scribing the events coming down the pipe at this unique time in financial history.
The 400% profit was turned by those who have intellectually and logically come to understand who is in control and just what is going on.
Here we all are today and about no one knows what is going on even though it happens over and over again and always works out the same way.
It is beginning to look to me that it is important for serious traders to know how to time the markets while being on the right side of the markets at all times.
Just for discussions sake, I would be willing to say that anyone who has the view that timing and being on the right side always, is a very good idea. If they were willing to suggest how to use fundamentals and other measures to determine this, then those blogs they contribute to are worth following.
What is the Sharpe ratio for pulling down 400% since March? What is the Sharpe ratio for running short from 30 down to 1. I know it must be different than going up 400% from below 1. Does a Sharpe ratio help with timing? I don't use Sharpe ratios for anything; it just looks like appraisal of performance stuff to me.