high probability trades

[guru]

1. Look at basic probabilities like if you were running a casino: if your average win is 10% then just to break even you need to win ten times to be able to lose 100% one time. Basically you need to win 90% of the time just to break even.

2. You may be able to hedge by investing upfront into LEAP hedges (calls or puts), if your risk is in a single direction.

 

[Amahrix]

hey I'm looking in to trade that has a high probability but it also can lose a lot how would u go ahead and trade it- my win side is 10% my loss is max 100% of the inital cost i can approx 54 trades a year which a few will be losers but i doubt they will be 100% losses there will be around the 50% would u guys do it ? the max loss is also around the 3% of my account value

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-you-too-anxious-to-win.334884/

 

[Windlesham1]

If you are basinf the win rate on margin then 10% of margin is terrific- for me the max is about 40%of my total account though I'm told I should trade bigger.
http://optionsinvesting.co.uk/trade...tj8ROu_Pp9Ekp185v6VHZHF0x6dlu5k5wCtcTBjnTCyYI

 

[Alter Davis]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-you-too-anxious-to-win.334884/

Huh great unswer!

 

[ironchef]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/are-you-too-anxious-to-win.334884/

+1 Like venture investing.

I am impressed. You are a real pro sir.