High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

Quote from richrf:

a) All talking heads are working for themselves first and their big clients second. I totally tune them out. Just looking for news that may affect longer term trends - e.g. the government is going to spend $1,000,000,000,000.

b) I quit using trend indicators a long time ago. They are alwayslway too late because they are using past data and big moves are missed. I prefer useing volume/price data together with monetary/fiscal trends.

c) Oil will stabilize as we begin to switch to energy efficient policies. Bush (and his oil friends) had no incentive. The primary cause of oil moving from $10 - $60 was SUVs (not China and India), the move from $60 - $140 was outrageous monetary policy that encouraged commodity speculation. The new administration will be going down a different road - e.g. energy conservation, alternative energy development, infrastructure building. This will set the stage for long term growth based upon real economic growth as opposed to asset inflation (the Bush years).

d) Not sure whether QQQQs (and QLDs) will lead as investors become less risk adverse. Or, it may be that risk aversion will be the hallmark of this Bull rally. making Dow and SP500 the preferred investment.

Thanks for the input.

Rich
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Rich;
I agree with much of that.

b]Except simply still like some battle tested trend indicators[with discretion................................................included but not limited to 50dma] AS far as what some gov ''says'' unquote ,well if you can trade/invest off that , more power to you'':cool:

c]Yes i fugured the Pickens plan would kick in around 3rd friday in JAN , more or less.[Cant oil drill out of this one that TX oil driller says].

But USA/Israel has to many oil rich enemies[Russia,Iran,Chavez........] for me to call for a stable oil market, but funny how so few''BLAME BUSH NOW'' for low oil prices LOL.CBN news reported Iran says ''more the price of oil the better'' Iran must hate technical price charts.

d] I like the QQQQ leader ship, but thats to the downside,LOL;
SPY actually ourperformed to the downside, a bit today, but not past 7 years..................................................................Look out below.

Thanks Rich ;
thought 1st day of 1st week would be more bullish, but that error tells something also. And still like a downtrending 50day moving average.

:cool:
 
Quote from Port1385:

By the way, the original call was for a market bottom not a short covering rally. He specifically stated the bottom was in. Now if we make lower lows then I guess this email will be flushed down never to be seen again.
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The original call was for a bottom and not immediately.

Support area and fundamentals are still in tact.

The problem with most of you is you have no patients and you think things just change on a dime.

I'm expecting this to be a very ugly turn.
 
I guess this is your attempt at damage control. Why cant you just say you made a bad call or just let the original thread sink?

Quote from Joab:

The original call was for a bottom and not immediately.

Support area and fundamentals are still in tact.

The problem with most of you is you have no patients and you think things just change on a dime.

I'm expecting this to be a very ugly turn.
More...
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

d] I like the QQQQ leader ship, but thats to the downside,LOL;
SPY actually ourperformed to the downside, a bit today, but not past 7 years..................................................................Look out below.

Thanks Rich ;
thought 1st day of 1st week would be more bullish, but that error tells something also. And still like a downtrending 50day moving average.

:cool: [/B]
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Hi,

The DDMs have been actually performing the best lately, followed by the SSOs, and then the QLDs. However, I am not sure whether this flight to large caps is temporary or whether it is a theme that will dominate the next Bull cycle, as institutions become less risk adverse. NASDAQ may bne a steal right now, or it may just be stealing. I may just decide to split my bets between the three of them.

Rich

Thanks for your response.
 
Quote from Port1385:

I guess this is your attempt at damage control. Why cant you just say you made a bad call or just let the original thread sink?
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Next he's gonna say he only claimed a probability of a bottom. :D
 
hmmmmm

Horrific jobs number and the market rallies. :cool:

Hope you all listen to Papa Joab ?

If not don't worry there will be lots of time left before we see 10,000 but it is coming.
 
Quote from Joab:

...don't worry there will be lots of time left before we see 10,000 but it is coming.

The original call was for a bottom and not immediately.

Support area and fundamentals are still in tact.

The problem with most of you is you have no patients and you think things just change on a dime.

I'm expecting this to be a very ugly turn.
More...

??? Which one is it? What kind of BS are you spouting? You've changed your tune 3x by making blanket statements that absolve you of being wrong under all scenarios except an absolute retest of lows.

You call for Dow 10,000?!?! Wow -- what a genius! You're truly gifted and a real market wizard for saying 'someday it'll eventually get back to 10k.' What a BOLD prediction. You really went out on a limb there. Lmao.
 
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