High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

Quote from Port1385:

Two scenarios.

The chart below paints the Joab scenario.

The other scenario is that price makes a turn to make another new low. Volume does seem on-target for a nice inverse head and shoulders.
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While the market never acts as expected, I am also looking for a run up to the 110 level on the SPY with a retracement that will form a reverse head-and shoulders which will be the beginning of a cyclical Bull market lasting a couple of years. But I do not expect new highs at this time, unless things get on track much better than I think they can. Since I cannot predict the eventual big swings, I am simply accumulating for the big two year run up.
 
Quote from richrf:

Translation:

1) Key support areas are holding
2) Climax selling on moderately high volume
3) Bush's incompetent administration (to an extreme that we will hopefully never revisit again - and this means Palin) is gone.
4) Oil prices will be less of a drag on corporate profits and U.S. balance of trade. However, stronger dollars will impact exports.

The net of all this, plus the extraordinary amount of money being pumped into the system via monetary and fiscal policy means more money will flow into equity ownership. The accumulation of stocks is just beginning, and the Talking Heads on CNBC are attempting to keep prices low (by inviting public panic selling), so that their clients and friends can accumulate. The same old story.

The question I am wrestling with is whether institutions and the public will become aggressive again with investing (Nasdaq and Russell), or has there been an allocation switch (next couple of years) to less aggressive (DOW, SP500) holdings. This is a key question, since one category will probably dominate over the next couple of years.

Rich
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Yes you pretty much got it bang on.

The bottom line will be corporate profits and consumers returning.

With oil costs easing if corporations adjust pricing soon enough the consumer will be back.

I'm looking at this time next year to be technically out of a recession and back on the road to expansion again.

The fly in the ointment is the government debt that Bush created.

I'm not really sure how that will play out.
 
The 830 - 835 area (on the ES) needs to hold for this bullish leg to continue.
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The original CALL generated almost 100pts of profit, and was delivered before the Market Open.

I don't operate on that time-frame, but I know good trading when I see it.
 
By the way, the original call was for a market bottom not a short covering rally. He specifically stated the bottom was in. Now if we make lower lows then I guess this email will be flushed down never to be seen again.
 
Quote from Joab:

hmmmmm

Did anyone listen and BUY on the open ???


Don't worry if you didn't there will be lots of time to get in.

The recovery won't happen overnight.
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I think portie is correct...
 
Quote from Port1385:

I am correct. We are going lower and the bottom is not in.
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Only Chuck Norris knows what the future holds, because he makes future :)
 
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