High Probability the Bottom is in - A rare Joab call

Quote from JSSPMK:

Pardon my French, but detractors my ass, so far nobody belittled your call, as far as Surfer is concerned according to his last call his ET membership has expired, he stated 100% reversal way above 7777 DJ, didn't happen. So if somebody decides to belittle him, then rightly so, he can't even get another handle. Opposition is stating the very obvious of things - this is a bear market still, so to call a bounce a reversal you must have information that only Van Damme or perhaps Lord Chuck Norris may have in their pocession :)

Respectfully,

Mr Bear
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LOL

Yes I have top secret info given to me by Barack Obama himself.

We are working together in a joint effort to save the world from the Bushites.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

yup when the market surges it surges huge. the time to cover was last week. longs will now dominate for the next few years with little interruption.
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little interruption? What are you talking about. Where have you been?
 
Quote from Joab:

SPY

Look at Monthly SPY chart at 79.50


Just barely took out 2002 lows - KEY support area.

Friday was the climax rally on the Daily
chart.

The price of Oil is the fundamental key for corporate profits to return soon.

Good riddance Bush


Up we go !
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???????
 
Bears and Bulls make a market. I would like to encourage all Bears to keep shorting, since I am buying like crazy and love the prices. Waiting for a large decline to buy more. Will someone sell it to me at last week's prices. I am ready.
 
Quote from Joab:

SPY

Look at Monthly SPY chart at 79.50


Just barely took out 2002 lows - KEY support area.

Friday was the climax rally on the Daily
chart.

The price of Oil is the fundamental key for corporate profits to return soon.

Good riddance Bush


Up we go !
More...


????
 
Quote from wutimzhang:

????
More...

Translation:

1) Key support areas are holding
2) Climax selling on moderately high volume
3) Bush's incompetent administration (to an extreme that we will hopefully never revisit again - and this means Palin) is gone.
4) Oil prices will be less of a drag on corporate profits and U.S. balance of trade. However, stronger dollars will impact exports.

The net of all this, plus the extraordinary amount of money being pumped into the system via monetary and fiscal policy means more money will flow into equity ownership. The accumulation of stocks is just beginning, and the Talking Heads on CNBC are attempting to keep prices low (by inviting public panic selling), so that their clients and friends can accumulate. The same old story.

The question I am wrestling with is whether institutions and the public will become aggressive again with investing (Nasdaq and Russell), or has there been an allocation switch (next couple of years) to less aggressive (DOW, SP500) holdings. This is a key question, since one category will probably dominate over the next couple of years.

Rich
 
Partial Quote from richrf:

Translation:

1) Key support areas are holding
2) Climax selling on moderately high volume
3) Bush's administration and this means Palin) .....................
4) Oil prices will be less of a drag on corporate profits and U.S. balance of trade. However, stronger dollars will impact exports.

The net of all this, plus the extraordinary amount of money being pumped into the system via monetary and fiscal policy means more money will flow into equity ownership.

The accumulation of stocks is just beginning, and the Talking Heads on CNBC are attempting to keep prices low (by inviting public panic selling), so that their clients and friends can accumulate. The same old story.

The question I am wrestling with is whether institutions and the public will become aggressive again with investing (Nasdaq and Russell), or has there been an allocation switch (next couple of years) to less aggressive (DOW, SP500) holdings. This is a key question, since one category will probably dominate over the next couple of years.

Rich
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==================
Rich;
a]I will take your word on what CNBC is doing;
i get most of my news thru Bloomberg,FOX, CBN, Dave Ramsey/FOX ,market makers & specialists.

b]Still a bear market,50 day moving average resistance;
but the QQQQ & SPY are looking somewhat bullish weekly trend.
last hour. :D

That is if one likes countertrends.
Weekly chart is in bear rally trend, its a wonder havent seen more bear rallys, this year.

c] Right on oil prices for now.Nice to see unleaded prices trending lower.Really dont know what the oil haters in legislative. or oil haters in executive, will do medium or long term.

Alaska , Arabia & TX, Canada are pretty good about selling us oil, reguardless of politics;
but Russia, Iran ,Chavez , hate our guts.Iranian rulers told CBN news the ''more the oil price, the better'' Fortunately for us, Rusisa doesnt seem to know the difference beteeen a bear trend , bear rally or ''end of capitalism'' Mr.Putin said]LOL

QQQQ tends to be more bearish,all data & it was today, today;SPY was more bullish , all data, & end of today.Nothing quite like a 4 th quarter tek rally, but past performance isnt a prediction...................................................................

:cool:
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

==================
Rich;
a]I will take your word on what CNBC is doing;
i get most of my news thru Bloomberg,FOX, CBN, Dave Ramsey/FOX ,market makers & specialists.

b]Still a bear market,50 day moving average resistance;
but the QQQQ & SPY are looking somewhat bullish weekly trend.
last hour. :D

That is if one likes countertrends.
Weekly chart is in bear rally trend, its a wonder havent seen more bear rallys, this year.

c] Right on oil prices for now.Nice to see unleaded prices trending lower.Really dont know what the oil haters in legislative. or oil haters in executive, will do medium or long term.

Alaska , Arabia & TX, Canada are pretty good about selling us oil, reguardless of politics;
but Russia, Iran ,Chavez , hate our guts.Iranian rulers told CBN news the ''more the oil price, the better'' Fortunately for us, Rusisa doesnt seem to know the difference beteeen a bear trend , bear rally or ''end of capitalism'' Mr.Putin said]LOL

QQQQ tends to be more bearish,all data & it was today, today;SPY was more bullish , all data, & end of today.Nothing quite like a 4 th quarter tek rally, but past performance isnt a prediction...................................................................

:cool:
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a) All talking heads are working for themselves first and their big clients second. I totally tune them out. Just looking for news that may affect longer term trends - e.g. the government is going to spend $1,000,000,000,000.

b) I quit using trend indicators a long time ago. They are alwayslway too late because they are using past data and big moves are missed. I pref useing volume/price data together with monetary/fiscal trends.

c) Oil will stabilize as we begin to switch to energy efficient policies. Bush (and his oil friends) had no incentive. The primary cause of oil moving from $10 - $60 was SUVs (not China and India), the move from $60 - $140 was outrageous monetary policy that encouraged commodity speculation. The new administration will be going down a different road - e.g. energy conservation, alternative energy development, infrastructure building. This will set the stage for long term growth based upon real economic growth as opposed to asset inflation (the Bush years).

d) Not sure whether QQQQs (and QLDs) will lead as investors become less risk adverse. Or, it may be that risk aversion will be the hallmark of this Bull rally. making Dow and SP500 the preferred investment.

Thanks for the input.

Rich
 
Quote from richrf:

a) All talking heads are working for themselves first and their big clients second. I totally tune them out. Just looking for news that may affect longer term trends - e.g. the government is going to spend $1,000,000,000,000.

b) I quit using trend indicators a long time ago. They are alwayslway too late because they are using past data and big moves are missed. I pref useing volume/price data together with monetary/fiscal trends.

c) Oil will stabilize as we begin to switch to energy efficient policies. Bush (and his oil friends) had no incentive. The primary cause of oil moving from $10 - $60 was SUVs (not China and India), the move from $60 - $140 was outrageous monetary policy that encouraged commodity speculation. The new administration will be going down a different road - e.g. energy conservation, alternative energy development, infrastructure building. This will set the stage for long term growth based upon real economic growth as opposed to asset inflation (the Bush years).

d) Not sure whether QQQQs (and QLDs) will lead as investors become less risk adverse. Or, it may be that risk aversion will be the hallmark of this Bull rally. making Dow and SP500 the preferred investment.

Thanks for the input.

Rich
More...


hahahahahahahaahahahahaha
 
Two scenarios.

The chart below paints the Joab scenario.

The other scenario is that price makes a turn to make another new low. Volume does seem on-target for a nice inverse head and shoulders.


 
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