As a Scientist, I have been puzzled by the reporting of so many asymptomatic CoV-2 infected persons. I initially assumed that what was being reported as asymptomatic positive were mostly pre-symptomatic positive, but the number still seemed way too high to me. Our experience with related corona viral infections, e.g. SARS-CoV, suggests that most who become infected will have symptoms, though not necessarily at the clinical level. The reporting of so many positive tests with so many reported as asymptomatic became a real puzzle to me, and frankly, I thought something must be wrong, but i had no idea what it might be.
Recently it was reported that both the CDC and some of the States have been co-mingling serological and RNA test results. This should not have been done. It is essential to keep results from these two types of test results segregated! I am absolutely certain that both State labs and the CDC understand that these results must not be mingled, and so why this was done remains a complete mystery. In fact, it's inexcusable.
To make matters worse, we've been informed that, until very recently, the readily available, commercial, serological tests -- the quick ones done with a finger prick -- are highly unreliable for CoV-2, with some reportedly yielding as high as 50% false positives!
If there are significant numbers of false positives in co-mingled CoV-2 data sets, which now seems likely, that could explain what seems to be an irrationally high number of asymptomatic positive tests being reported. In other words, if the number of infections is erroneously high due to unreliable serological testing, that would explain the irrationally high asymptomatic rate being reported. This would also mean that the infection, once acquired, is somewhat more dangerous than many believe.
Based on prior studies, it should be an uncommon that those who test serologically positive did not already have noticeable symptoms! The high number of asymptomatic, ~50%, among those testing positive, seems almost crazily too high based on what was found for a closely related virus, SARS -- another corona virus causing serious respiratory illness.
Based on studies of SARS-CoV infection in which reliable serological tests were used, I would expect an asymptomatic rate among those testing positive for SARS-CoV of between 5 and 15%, much lower than what's being reported.
See for example:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3371799/
Recently it was reported that both the CDC and some of the States have been co-mingling serological and RNA test results. This should not have been done. It is essential to keep results from these two types of test results segregated! I am absolutely certain that both State labs and the CDC understand that these results must not be mingled, and so why this was done remains a complete mystery. In fact, it's inexcusable.
To make matters worse, we've been informed that, until very recently, the readily available, commercial, serological tests -- the quick ones done with a finger prick -- are highly unreliable for CoV-2, with some reportedly yielding as high as 50% false positives!
If there are significant numbers of false positives in co-mingled CoV-2 data sets, which now seems likely, that could explain what seems to be an irrationally high number of asymptomatic positive tests being reported. In other words, if the number of infections is erroneously high due to unreliable serological testing, that would explain the irrationally high asymptomatic rate being reported. This would also mean that the infection, once acquired, is somewhat more dangerous than many believe.
Based on prior studies, it should be an uncommon that those who test serologically positive did not already have noticeable symptoms! The high number of asymptomatic, ~50%, among those testing positive, seems almost crazily too high based on what was found for a closely related virus, SARS -- another corona virus causing serious respiratory illness.
Based on studies of SARS-CoV infection in which reliable serological tests were used, I would expect an asymptomatic rate among those testing positive for SARS-CoV of between 5 and 15%, much lower than what's being reported.
See for example:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3371799/
