Quote from cabletrader:
I'm confused now, you clearly stated several times that the average nett profit for each trade is 3 pips after spreads and commissions, so what is your average initial stop? You say it's dynamic but it has to start somewhere. And how does your average win work out to 3 pips if 20% of your trades are for 10 or even 30-40 pips as stated? [/B]
To be honest with you, I dont keep track of what my average initial stop is.
Because say the spread is 1 and the commission is 0.5pip.
So total costs per trade is 3 pips.
EFX for USD/JPY and GBP/USD are almost always 1 pip from what Iv seen from the demo.
I've attached a sample of the results. These were trades taken on January 3rd, for part of the day.
You will notice the USD/JPY has average win:loss of 1.42. The GBP/USD much higher, but a lower win rate. Expectancy of both on this set of trades is about the same.
This is amateur backtesting, but before I get to coding this system I feel I still need a greater exposure through looking at as many charts as I can to get a feel of this market. Im in no hurry.
I probably won't trade forex until a couple of years minimum.
Just some details on how this system works.
Long entry:
AFTER a white candle, we look to enter long. If the next bar makes a high higher than the high of the previous bar then an entry is triggered and we buy 1 standard lot.
The stop is 1 tick below the low of the the initial white candle, and trails.
Short entry:
AFTER a red candle, we look to enter short. If the next bar makes a low lower than the low of the previous bar, then an entry is triggered we sell 1 standard lot.
The stop is at 1 tick above the high of the initial red candle, and trails.
NOTE: my chart as attached and my whole method is actually incorrectly tested because at this stage (as I havent got serious software yet) if the initial stop is breached BEFORE the entry is supposed to have been made, then the trade will be recorded as having entered and then exited on the same bar. A candlestick chart really isnt enough for testing because the sequence of trades is not known.
But i still think this idea has potential.