Been trading indices, gold and oil for some years, after observing for a few weeks starting December 2019, I decided to ease into trading some lean hog and soybean, using the US-China phase I trade deal as a jumping board.
Being conservative, I did not just jump into long or short, instead, I marked two technical levels I thought it would be very hard to reach as a pull back to long. I waited for weeks for prices to reach the level, I thought I was lucky they ever reached there.
Both levels are technically an extreme pull back (weaker than double bottom) to the zone between 61.8%-76.4% pull back, which I have been trading on all time frames for all types of other instruments.
To add another layer of being conservative, I did not buy long, I sold HE Feb 14 65 PUT, collecting 430; and ZS Feb 21 9.1 PUT, collecting 750.
For quite a few days, I thought I would be collecting those premiums for free, then the corona virus hit. Here are the charts as of today.
The unrealized loss of HE put is about 3-3.5k, that for ZS is 1200-ish.
I think the main reason for the drop is the potential of not buying by the Chinese, one reason is most of the restaurants are closed due to the virus. It is said the demand for pork will drop by 40%.
I decided to roll the the HE Feb PUT to April 15 65 PUT, I collected 2300; with the original 430, I have collected 2730. If approaching April expiration, HE does not reverse in some fashion, I will consider rolling again or get assigned (? have not checked whether this is financially settled or delivery, LOL, although I am in the restaurant business in the US, I do not want to get that many hogs, I will check, if someone reading this, kindly point out please, thank you.).
I am already seeing reversal of some sort in ZS, will wait a few more days to decide what to do for ZS put.
The following capture is for record. No, I do not look at the Greeks on these, I think they are what they are, I cannot change or fade them, thus no use for me. But I have a firm believe, unlike stocks, these will not go to zero, like the indices, prices are driven by fear and greed, secondarily by supply and demand. And I am well capitalized to trade one position each to zero, so, risk management is irrelevant here, I am NOT getting out if I am not profitable.
Being conservative, I did not just jump into long or short, instead, I marked two technical levels I thought it would be very hard to reach as a pull back to long. I waited for weeks for prices to reach the level, I thought I was lucky they ever reached there.
Both levels are technically an extreme pull back (weaker than double bottom) to the zone between 61.8%-76.4% pull back, which I have been trading on all time frames for all types of other instruments.
To add another layer of being conservative, I did not buy long, I sold HE Feb 14 65 PUT, collecting 430; and ZS Feb 21 9.1 PUT, collecting 750.
For quite a few days, I thought I would be collecting those premiums for free, then the corona virus hit. Here are the charts as of today.
The unrealized loss of HE put is about 3-3.5k, that for ZS is 1200-ish.
I think the main reason for the drop is the potential of not buying by the Chinese, one reason is most of the restaurants are closed due to the virus. It is said the demand for pork will drop by 40%.
I decided to roll the the HE Feb PUT to April 15 65 PUT, I collected 2300; with the original 430, I have collected 2730. If approaching April expiration, HE does not reverse in some fashion, I will consider rolling again or get assigned (? have not checked whether this is financially settled or delivery, LOL, although I am in the restaurant business in the US, I do not want to get that many hogs, I will check, if someone reading this, kindly point out please, thank you.).
I am already seeing reversal of some sort in ZS, will wait a few more days to decide what to do for ZS put.
The following capture is for record. No, I do not look at the Greeks on these, I think they are what they are, I cannot change or fade them, thus no use for me. But I have a firm believe, unlike stocks, these will not go to zero, like the indices, prices are driven by fear and greed, secondarily by supply and demand. And I am well capitalized to trade one position each to zero, so, risk management is irrelevant here, I am NOT getting out if I am not profitable.
