Hey shorts, I just want to ask you a couple questions. I promise I won't laugh..

From experience, I would also agree that now is not a good time to 'enter' a long position. Neither is it a good time to guess and bet on if the big short is just around the corner.

I'm getting that feeling I had when I said all the four horsemen were way overbought in mid 07; I remember at that point, that anyone who even dared mention the word 'short' was laughed off the board, and every dip was bought (as prognosticated by stock tr3dr), much to the chagrin of agonizing short tears.
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

It's easy now. Where were you 12 months ago?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=155727
More...

And where were YOU 12 months before that?

Dr. Zhivodka


Registered: Sep 2002
Posts: 4372


04-10-08 06:58 PM

The market will never go down again....in terms of a massive drop of course.

The Bernacke Fed has indicated with their words and deeds that they will BK the country to prop the share market.

It's a free bet

Dr. Zhivodka


Registered: Sep 2002
Posts: 4372


10-18-07 11:55 PM

I hear ya brotha...

...I'm just saying that there's too much vested interest these days to let the market get whacked by 25%.

Not that it doesn't deserve to be....It just won't be.



Bull market geniuses....
 
Quote from efficiency:

Eh.........you wanna know what I'm thinking?

1. DJIA is only 30 stocks, not truly representative of "industrials" and merely re-tracing where it's already been. Hmmm, between 1966 and 1982 ("long" B4 YOUR time), the dow repelled off the 1000 mark 4 or 5 times. IF and when we get to new virgin territory, then pound YOUR chest.

2. The US borrowing (and in turn spending) funded by foreigners, over the last decade is unprecedented. Virgin territory. Has to be a. re-paid, b. defaulted. c. inflated away. Which is most probable?

3. Wall Street's function isn't captial formation, it's selling paper. Devotes 24/7 effort to that task. IF and when they're out of paper, they re-load.

4. Institutions are lemmings

5. Volume has been anemic (by today's standards). That can be interpreted in more than one way. YOU could say there are few sellers. I would suggest there is mediocre demand. Public still isn't in.

6. Stocks, bottom in unisom and top one by one. Speclalists can mask carnage in one by running another. In other words shills.

7. Stocks in general fall 3 to 4x faster than they rise. A little opening gap (with a credible though not necessarily valid alibi aids the process). The beauty of a short isn't the maximum 100% (400% levered) unlikely potential gain, it's the SPEED of the move. Great fun. Almost orgasimic.

8. Scant inside ownership of any of the 30.

9. Rigged index. When one it's pulling its weight or capable of being a tool (Kodak comes to mind), it's replaced. Yep McDonald's is an "industrial". A big Mac in Portland OR tastes just like one in Portland ME. That's consistency!

10. Three month T-bills, yielding just above zero (and resulting in the steepest yield curve of all time) is not normal, nor a reflection of strength. Mister market will eventually correct the disparity. But that's bonds, and we're talkin' stocks, right? Then again, YOU put the thread in economics. By design?

11. All those regional and community banks laden with commercial RE loans, based upon dubious appraisals, and in turn participated out to downline correspondents makes for a one big clusterfuck. Pit that against high yielding REIT's and an 18% present vacancy rate. None of course are in the DJIA, but good old JP Morgan is.

12. Hey. Perk your ears up and bound out of your bedroom. Mom's calling you for supper.

A dozen little aspects of what I'm thinking.
More...

I'm in agreement with most of your observations. Seems you have made an excellent case for the market going up forever!
 
So no one wants to talk about their short positions?

Either you are embarrassed to admit you've had to sell kidneys to roll forward your shorts over the last year, or you aren't actually short at all because you agree with me.

Trying to call the top in this market from now till elections is suicide. I'm not saying it can't possibly fall before then, and I'm not saying it will fall right afterwards. But you're gonna see a good obvious slide as it happens, not 18 month highs.

I'd just like to hear from someone who's short. C'mon out and tell us how the water is!
 
+12

Quote from efficiency:

Eh.........you wanna know what I'm thinking?

1. DJIA is only 30 stocks, not truly representative of "industrials" and merely re-tracing where it's already been. Hmmm, between 1966 and 1982 ("long" B4 YOUR time), the dow repelled off the 1000 mark 4 or 5 times. IF and when we get to new virgin territory, then pound YOUR chest.

2. The US borrowing (and in turn spending) funded by foreigners, over the last decade is unprecedented. Virgin territory. Has to be a. re-paid, b. defaulted. c. inflated away. Which is most probable?

3. Wall Street's function isn't captial formation, it's selling paper. Devotes 24/7 effort to that task. IF and when they're out of paper, they re-load.

4. Institutions are lemmings

5. Volume has been anemic (by today's standards). That can be interpreted in more than one way. YOU could say there are few sellers. I would suggest there is mediocre demand. Public still isn't in.

6. Stocks, bottom in unisom and top one by one. Speclalists can mask carnage in one by running another. In other words shills.

7. Stocks in general fall 3 to 4x faster than they rise. A little opening gap (with a credible though not necessarily valid alibi aids the process). The beauty of a short isn't the maximum 100% (400% levered) unlikely potential gain, it's the SPEED of the move. Great fun. Almost orgasimic.

8. Scant inside ownership of any of the 30.

9. Rigged index. When one it's pulling its weight or capable of being a tool (Kodak comes to mind), it's replaced. Yep McDonald's is an "industrial". A big Mac in Portland OR tastes just like one in Portland ME. That's consistency!

10. Three month T-bills, yielding just above zero (and resulting in the steepest yield curve of all time) is not normal, nor a reflection of strength. Mister market will eventually correct the disparity. But that's bonds, and we're talkin' stocks, right? Then again, YOU put the thread in economics. By design?

11. All those regional and community banks laden with commercial RE loans, based upon dubious appraisals, and in turn participated out to downline correspondents makes for a one big clusterfuck. Pit that against high yielding REIT's and an 18% present vacancy rate. None of course are in the DJIA, but good old JP Morgan is.

12. Hey. Perk your ears up and bound out of your bedroom. Mom's calling you for supper.

A dozen little aspects of what I'm thinking.
More...
 
Quote from piezoe:

I'm in agreement with most of your observations. Seems you have made an excellent case for the market going up forever!
More...

Yep, there could be ANOTHER leg up. Market climbs the proverbial wall of worry and there's lots of boomer money yet to be confisicated. With short rates near zero, this should compel the public back in.

Thus far it really hasn't.

As for the here and now, you know, reality; volatilty is near a 3 year LOW. Not sustainable. Volatility (lots of decisions both ways and a lot of price movement) occur at tops.

Get ready for a broncing buck (nothing to do with the US Dollar), but done "right", a trader's paradise.

Could be a catalyst, say a nasty EPS surprise this week. Couple that with expiration.

Before another leg up, I would suggest there's going to be a pause that refreshes. I would also suggest the speciialists (and market makers) en masse don't really care about politics other than to serve as alibis to move paper.
 
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:

So no one wants to talk about their short positions?

Either you are embarrassed to admit you've had to sell kidneys to roll forward your shorts over the last year, or you aren't actually short at all because you agree with me.

Trying to call the top in this market from now till elections is suicide. I'm not saying it can't possibly fall before then, and I'm not saying it will fall right afterwards. But you're gonna see a good obvious slide as it happens, not 18 month highs.

I'd just like to hear from someone who's short. C'mon out and tell us how the water is!
More...

"you agree with me" does this thread have a purpose except for self indulgence on your part?
________________
 
just noticed that this thread got a well deserved bounce to chit chat. which is the equivalent of being put on ignored.

" Hey shorts, I just want to ask you a couple questions. I promise I won't laugh.."
the originator of this thread ought to laugh at himself in order to make the situation unanimous.
 
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