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Hershey's Equity thread
- Thread starter oddiduro
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Quote from gotta_trade:
How does the 65 day average volume factor into all of this?
Thanks
No. You do not use that for decision making.
what you do is a pro rata am volume against DU a whole day low volume.
I have software called Qcharts. I have three volume columns from left to right: volume, Unusual (which means % of 65 day av vol)and 65-day Avg.
If you calculate the DU % of 65-day av, you automatically can see at any time how Unusual relates to that.
A lot of the software is now getting to a place where it has components that work for what I do finally.
No one finds this stuff believable so they are not remotely your competition. you will not find any methods that compete with this.
Quote from gms:
That's a good question. Considering we're going long, I'd imagine the price has to be rising as well. I'd also think that you'd want to see that we're coming off the lows and not the other way 'round. But does previous resistance and potential supply play a factor? Perhaps that's where float comes in? This, like anything else I post, is not me speaking on behalf of Hershey.
Jack, have you ever filtered to not enter if the BO price was not sufficiently below or above previous waiting supply?
volume is a leading indicator of price.
Price has not moved.
This is the cause of SEC citations. that come up at brokerage frims where you may be trading multiple accounts as I do.
This, in the days of email before web sites, is what got me phone calls from corp execs wanting to know who was leaking corp orate info and causing me to issue buy statements before the price BO'ed.
You posts are showing where you are mentally and what trading experience that you have. It is beginner at the very best. you need to read repeatedly and keep the trivia down much lower.
get a yellow pad and start to make links and nodes. Put what you are beginning to know from me only on the pads. Link the information logically and make a note to yourself to loose about 90% of what you think you know. Try to not write down what you know from elsewhere at any time. Try to let what I say override and imprint. If you get anything to connect from what I say consider saying it out loud.
Jack, you wrote:
>>You have charts that show the volume before the price Breaks out. You look at the size roughly and see the value.
You have charts that show the volume the day the price Breaks out. You look at the size roughly and see the value.
You have charts that show the volume as the price peaks. You look at the size roughly and see the value.<<
My question: These values can range all over the place, there's no market law that dictates they all be similar. A DU can be 50,000 on one occasion, 260,000 on another, and 1,388,000 on yet another. Same for the FRV and PV. How then does one assess what value reasonably can be used?
>>You have charts that show the volume before the price Breaks out. You look at the size roughly and see the value.
You have charts that show the volume the day the price Breaks out. You look at the size roughly and see the value.
You have charts that show the volume as the price peaks. You look at the size roughly and see the value.<<
My question: These values can range all over the place, there's no market law that dictates they all be similar. A DU can be 50,000 on one occasion, 260,000 on another, and 1,388,000 on yet another. Same for the FRV and PV. How then does one assess what value reasonably can be used?
Quote from manz66:
Jack,
These people here are bunch of looser, you gave enough information for them to be successful. 99% of human race are like that. They are looking for holy grail. lol.
I wish very much to help people through this. I am unable to understand the bullshit some people continually lay on me.
They definitely have the information in spades.
I cannot imagine a person asking where is the rest of the stuff you didn't post to make money 100% of the time.
If a person cannot see this for what it is, then he needs to not be here bitching at me over and over and over.
There is no way a person can be effective and efficient if he does not work step by step in grasping how the market works. the peole who do not know are generally pissed off at everything and keeping their performance (and lack of it) a secret. they are stuff intellectually in a trap they have build by looking for the path of least resistance. None of them get it that they are not intelligent in their process. They have never learned how to figure out when they have a concept screwed up. I have to take all the heat from their screwed up minds.
fortunately, i have posted a day that and the support stuff that become a guide for those paralleling whatthat day shows.
Everything gets very smooth and streamlined in the end.
Over 47 years I find nothing has changed.
We have to work and work. then we have a foundation that is turning out money like a fountain. then we go to work and iteratively refine. Then we begin to optimize. Then we begin to perfect this stuff.
Sometimes in the process we get the opportunity to see mistakes made. Personally, it takes a lot on my part to take all this crap handed me day after day by these pussies.
Quote from bubba7:
Quote from gms:
That's a good question. Considering we're going long, I'd imagine the price has to be rising as well. I'd also think that you'd want to see that we're coming off the lows and not the other way 'round. But does previous resistance and potential supply play a factor? Perhaps that's where float comes in? This, like anything else I post, is not me speaking on behalf of Hershey.
Jack, have you ever filtered to not enter if the BO price was not sufficiently below or above previous waiting supply?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
volume is a leading indicator of price.
Price has not moved.
This is the cause of SEC citations. that come up at brokerage frims where you may be trading multiple accounts as I do.
This, in the days of email before web sites, is what got me phone calls from corp execs wanting to know who was leaking corp orate info and causing me to issue buy statements before the price BO'ed.
You posts are showing where you are mentally and what trading experience that you have. It is beginner at the very best. you need to read repeatedly and keep the trivia down much lower.
get a yellow pad and start to make links and nodes. Put what you are beginning to know from me only on the pads. Link the information logically and make a note to yourself to loose about 90% of what you think you know. Try to not write down what you know from elsewhere at any time. Try to let what I say override and imprint. If you get anything to connect from what I say consider saying it out loud.
I do recite everything you write out loud. I try different inflections and assess your typos until it makes some degree of sense. I do imprint whatever you want to say as your stuff and do not overide with my stuff. If I imprinted my stuff over it, it wouldn't be your stuff. I search past threads for posts of yours to round out my understanding of details. I re-read and re-recite.
But I ask questions to better understand. The questions about trading that I may ask are not those of beginners', but if it pleases you to think they are, please do so; Mars will not collide with Earth because of that but many seasoned traders would be amused. The questions I ask that that are beginners' type are about the mechanics of using sites and software. The non-beginner questions are about understanding what you mean when you write. Endure my sincere questions then, and in turn, I shall endure your adjunct comments, which is more than fair.
With that out of the way, it is your answer that the DU volume rising, regardless of price activity spiraling downward at the moment, triggers a buy anyway? I have that correct? In other words, it's your experienced assessment that, even in such a scenario, the falloff is akin to a head fake or some such similar event?
And I do have another question: What exactly is the significance of FRV? I understand its definition, but to be more precise, if we've targeted the DU, and we are at the day and time that the first rising volume exceeds the DU, and we are to enter, and subsequently exit when we hit the Peak Volume, what purpose does knowing the FRV serve?
I really hope that remark was not in reference to my reply to trendy earlier in this thread, because in that case, you have really misunderstood and need to re-read the post. trendy was quoting dkm who stated that the results using your system were 'disappointing' at one point. That seemed to be posted to infer that your strategies stink. However, it seemed to me reasonable that not every trading strategy can be 100% all of the time, and so basically my reply to trendy was for him to post a strategy that does not have a disappointing period. And further, because I recalled dkm's summation, to wit, that regardless, he felt your methods have a lot to offer, I mentioned that positive summation because trendy omitted it in his quoting dkm.Quote from bubba7:
I cannot imagine a person asking where is the rest of the stuff you didn't post to make money 100% of the time.
What my reply to trendy was not, was what you may think it was: a direct asking for 'stuff that makes money 100% of the time'. From the face of it, it really appears you may have misunderstood the intent if this indeed is you're quoting my reply to trendy.
I am up to date on your posts.
You will not have an easy time of trading.
From my viewpoint it has to do with getting stuff to jell. Not just regards to making money but how a person goes about mostly everything.
To get from A to B may not be fun for you. Not getting to B may be something you like to tell war stories about.
We are trading long trends. My orientation is to only take flawless trades. You do not realize this as yet. Once you have a method whose primary activity is weeding out stocks that do not fit the mold, you come to a place where things work well and consistently. We will shoot for 7 out of 8 trades panning out.
You should give a lot of weight to collateral stuff. DKM runs a site that was created by a mutual friend of ours. That person ask David to run the site. One aspect of it and the same aspect applies to the ES thread is that as time goes by the workers and contributors help and reinforce each other. I step back and let things focus on problems sometimes at the expence of getting results from the system. This has two advantages: we get to see a broader based experience and people can stand on thir own more easily.
You may want to consider this a little.
The pragmatic questions you ask like why bother with FRV? You suggest that I have DU and peaking so why the third item..
At some point you will notice the role of continuity in making money. I am a minimalist, but I do use forms for construction while things are curing.
The compound interest formula is something to look into. determine for yourself if you can handle it intuitively.
I will lose another AM opening tomorrow as a consequence of not keeping this thread current.
Is there any possibility you might want to consider learning by doing as an effective alternative?
Here are some major concepts that can guide you when you need to consider what comes up for you:
I am presenting a process for making money. Process.
The one singular precept guiding this is the fact that the market migrates instead of anything else. You do not know this and you need to consider that it may not be found in any other places. Soon you will conclude scoring does not work as well. This will lead to another experience in not finding it in other places..
The defaults I use preceded those chosen by others that appear to be the same. A lot of things still happen independently and there is no connection between several people getting to the same place at different times.
I iteratively refine things working wholistically.
It would be more straightforward for you to consider that the values I place on stuff is done for a lot of interconnected reasons.
To begin this process, I need to really focus on minimizing risk. One of the considerations is that no one can turn off real time and pause. I can't drag out stuff when it wrecks what is going on.
ET is not a place where people need a lot more examples of things getting messed up for extraneous reasons. I really have a lot of fears at this point regarding whether or not this place is workable.
You will not have an easy time of trading.
From my viewpoint it has to do with getting stuff to jell. Not just regards to making money but how a person goes about mostly everything.
To get from A to B may not be fun for you. Not getting to B may be something you like to tell war stories about.
We are trading long trends. My orientation is to only take flawless trades. You do not realize this as yet. Once you have a method whose primary activity is weeding out stocks that do not fit the mold, you come to a place where things work well and consistently. We will shoot for 7 out of 8 trades panning out.
You should give a lot of weight to collateral stuff. DKM runs a site that was created by a mutual friend of ours. That person ask David to run the site. One aspect of it and the same aspect applies to the ES thread is that as time goes by the workers and contributors help and reinforce each other. I step back and let things focus on problems sometimes at the expence of getting results from the system. This has two advantages: we get to see a broader based experience and people can stand on thir own more easily.
You may want to consider this a little.
The pragmatic questions you ask like why bother with FRV? You suggest that I have DU and peaking so why the third item..
At some point you will notice the role of continuity in making money. I am a minimalist, but I do use forms for construction while things are curing.
The compound interest formula is something to look into. determine for yourself if you can handle it intuitively.
I will lose another AM opening tomorrow as a consequence of not keeping this thread current.
Is there any possibility you might want to consider learning by doing as an effective alternative?
Here are some major concepts that can guide you when you need to consider what comes up for you:
I am presenting a process for making money. Process.
The one singular precept guiding this is the fact that the market migrates instead of anything else. You do not know this and you need to consider that it may not be found in any other places. Soon you will conclude scoring does not work as well. This will lead to another experience in not finding it in other places..
The defaults I use preceded those chosen by others that appear to be the same. A lot of things still happen independently and there is no connection between several people getting to the same place at different times.
I iteratively refine things working wholistically.
It would be more straightforward for you to consider that the values I place on stuff is done for a lot of interconnected reasons.
To begin this process, I need to really focus on minimizing risk. One of the considerations is that no one can turn off real time and pause. I can't drag out stuff when it wrecks what is going on.
ET is not a place where people need a lot more examples of things getting messed up for extraneous reasons. I really have a lot of fears at this point regarding whether or not this place is workable.
That is not accurate at all. I asked about its purpose. You had not stated its purpose. In thinking about FRV, I had that question. The question was not about shrugging it off as you've inferred. Far from it.Quote from bubba7:
The pragmatic questions you ask like why bother with FRV?
Permit me to segue on your phrase to say how very straightforward I have been in my requests for you to be clear and in my questions to you.It would be more straightforward for you...
As I go along your thread, I encounter questions. Perhaps you feel they are unnecessary questions. I don't feel they are. I wouldn't ask them if I didn't want to obtain your answers. I ask them to obtain answers and not for the purpose of being insultingly termed by you a 'haranguer' or 'trivialist'. That public display of offensiveness on your part, BTW, was neither humorous nor satirical. And it was uncalled for. That only leaves one other thing it could be.
Questions I ask of you are direct purposeful questions that arise *because* of processing your information. I feel a corresponding answer can only help gel the information more solidly as I make the connections. You can answer the questions directly, or choose not to answer them directly, or not answer at all. I have about 3 of them yet unanswered at this point. So I ask you again for your thoughts directly on the answers I've posed. If you can't answer or won't answer, then also spare me the SEC anecdotes, the rants about ET, and your belittling. Those do not qualify as answers.
I'm ignoring your other comments in the post: You may 'play teacher' with me, but you do not have permission to play 'remote psychologist' with me.
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