Hershey's Equity thread

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The Hot list came from the assessments of the three short lists.As you enter the data it will give you a ranking number at the top right. Jack said the Hot list would be a mixture of 1, 0, 7's. I also assumed that a higher number was a better ranking.

As I did my assessments it occured to me that I was doing them from left to right, is that how everyone else did them? I thought if we did them from right to left the ranking would pertain to more recent price movement. Any thoughts?
 
The Right Column of the chart is what we do at this point.

As the day passes we monitor.

Because this is a start up for most, we have to get our capital nto the market as a ramp up.

The hot lists posted are mixed among 7',s, 0',s and 1's.

The cycle, over time goes 1, 0, 7.

We enter between 0 and 7 at the location of the bottom of the trough.

We give priority when possible entires are over lapping to the higher ranking stocks.

By knowing the nature of the past cycles for each stock and utilizing the P, V relation, we enter after the cycle begins and before price moves.

To understand this you need to know how stock cycles work.

The market variables are used to explain this. In order of importance we have P, V and the sentiment as defined by A and D.

Many people in ET think that the guys who know what they are doing can say everything concisely and clearly and to the point. That is a neat viewpoint. That is fine with me. I do not share that viewpoint.

My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and it's communication to others.

I deal in the efficiency and success of transference of utilitarian knowledge and skills. More precisely, The level of redundancy of this aspect of stuff. most efficiently the redundancy is less than 3 and greater than 2 and, quite expectedly, approaches the value that John Napier thunk up.

Why the value would closely resemble this "natural" logarithm or base is way beyond me. I am suspicious that it is because of the fact that markets are people oriented. To keep this short and sweet, if you wish can google papers on this redundancy efficieny, look primarily in the year 1956 and there are four interlinked authors of which I am one. Trueblood, and an fruit tree in german are two more besides me. Our study samples were always over 500.

So 34 pages down he road, we can select universes, assess the repeatability of stocks to do what we want. And we see their ranks run around 4% money velocity a day. A couple of days work by people who are getting the job done.

Now we turn to the other two legs of the triad: Monitoring data, assessing it, making decions, and taking action to complete "execution" and sceondly, rotating our capital in threads to optimize making money with the opportunites at hand.

You have a one page chart, you see the five columns and we just fleash out the details of the five columns and put it in a six part binder 1/2 inch thick. You will leave the binder daily until you are making money whereby you turn your capital every 6 to 8 days. we focus on about two portions of it every day and do a buy with one portion that is in cash and a sell of another portion that is ending a 6 to 8 day hold. In this market the hold drops down to 3 or 4 days to achieve the 10% nominal goal but often by 6 to 8 days the trend is up to 30%. These difficulties can be handled by accomodating the market to our method or vis versa.
 
In a nut shell.

Monitor the hot list and pro rate volume from open to 11:00.


This is data for step 1.

2. Analyze the volume to see if it exceeds DU before 11:00.

3. Make a decision to buy if it does.

4. enter on a market order and the price is determined by the market.
 
because you have a 10 stock hot list,you may have to decide to buy one stock over another.

The rank does this for you. you will notice that as you read about 100 othr methods none of them do any of this stuff in detail. that means no one is competeing out there on the basis of your trading.

Vorso posted that he is seeing results in 3 to 4 days to get 10 to 15%. You need to be prepared to make money this way and not let any bullshit from the past creep in.

Choosing which BO in volume hot list stock you buy when their are several BO'ing in volume simultaneously means thatyou just buy one with a money stream ammount that is 1/4 of all your money. You must get used to the idea that this is going to happen ever day for the rest of your life.

The exits are much slower. you will see that the bars on the cycle peak for two days. To make more money you exit early taking less profit. To make less money you wait until the second day and make more profit and less money.
 
Quote from bubba7:

Many people in ET think that the guys who know what they are doing can say everything concisely and clearly and to the point. That is a neat viewpoint. That is fine with me. I do not share that viewpoint.

My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and it's communication to others.
More...
But now, you must understand the correlation between being 'concise and clear and to the point' and communicating whatever it is you wish to convey, because, to give you an example, your sentence:

"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and it's communication to others."

as you've written it, means:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and my viewpoint serves as communication to others."

If the apostrophe in "it's" was a misuse, then your sentence would be:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and its communication to others."
meaning:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and the communication of that viewpoint to others."

These all have different meanings. One is confusing enough. Compound a few of these and it's no wonder everyone comes away with a slightly different take. There's no defense for that.

FWIW, I think you meant:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and their communication to others."

Mathematicians, scientists and doctors speak in the universal language of their study so as not to be misunderstood in terminology.

We have English, with its rules and grammar.

This is not a live class where one can raise their hand and ask the lecturer to rephrase or be more specific without automatically creating another 6 pages of thread.

A lecturer refusing to make himself clear is like a student who mumbles his answers, isn't it?
 
Summary.

A. Culling. We get a universe on the weekend. Do this using stocktables.com. I switched to this when it was in vented. Prior to that I just used maths to sort the universe. It took seven equations. Google for them if you wish to do it better than EPS and RS, etc. In the ET level of people it is better to not get into maths or anything intellectual. Let keep focused on being rich. I will show you fuck ups using trend fader and Mr Market as examples and four others I will have researched soon. I need every single aspect of everything about them totally lined up ahead of time for any market condition that is possible.

B. Data Gathering. to night we begin this using clearstation and we bulk and get current data. Scores, formations, volume status, pending next signal from all of these, potentionalnext step , and action column if called for.

C. Easy Scan. This is not going to be done since I have merged this into other areas for the ET level of players. This is an indicator based process and it does not work on ET. we are doing natural cycle at this point. If I get to x over trades we will do money velocity using indicators to eak out anothr doubling of annual profits. the profit level currently is way out of the ET box as it is.

D. Analysis. This is also grouped in B and C above. the right column of the evening assessment is where this is documented.

E. Monitoring/trading. We use the regime of volume BO and peaking volume to enter and exit. Yuo note the DU, FRV and Peaking volume on the assessment sheet. The lower half of a copy of the sheet is used for each cycle. you will stple the lower half on top each cycle we run for a stock. It will be ina binder beteeen trades and in your 3 ring binder when active.

This page is the whole nine yards.
 
Quote from Moz:

The Hot list came from the assessments of the three short lists.As you enter the data it will give you a ranking number at the top right. Jack said the Hot list would be a mixture of 1, 0, 7's. I also assumed that a higher number was a better ranking.

As I did my assessments it occured to me that I was doing them from left to right, is that how everyone else did them? I thought if we did them from right to left the ranking would pertain to more recent price movement. Any thoughts?
More...


Jack,

Is it possible for me to pick the stocks for the Hot List, from the other lists, without using the assessment sheet?

Can I do it by hand?

Thanks,
gotta_trade
 
Quote from vorzo:

I'd like to chime in on this as I have tried Jack's equity method over the past few months.
My version of the method was based on my understanding Jack's posts on ET and the MSN site, and it was incomplete. I wasn't doing assessments or keeping stop logs either. I was entering trades before close of a FRV day and held them for 1-3 days. When the BOs did not fail, I nailed 10-15% over a day or two. I've had many failed BOs too, they became prevalent after the mkt rally ran its course and earnings season started.

I'd like to comment on one filter that I deem very important for this method - the float, which should be between 5-30 mln. Stocks with thin floats pop like crazy when some buying comes in (and drop like rocks too).

I haven't had the chance to do my assessments yet, so I looked at the ones posted. On Moz's list, UTSI and FDRY have floats of 73 and 98 mln, way over the limit of 30 mln. According to this filter, they should be removed from the lists.

Izeickl's assesment ranks are different from Moz's because he uses 8 days for all base-to-peak # of days - I think the correct way is to use the actual # of days.

Another comment regarding volume: Jack indicates a cutoff at 200k - I think this refers to AVERAGE volume (65 day avg). In some posts on MSN, he mentioned that one could go as low as 100k for DAILY volume, which is what StockTables is showing. Some stocks may have a daily < 200k especially when they're DU, with avg volumes well in excess of 200k. VTAL is an example - it had a 36% run in 4 days starting Jun 23.

Jack can you please comment on this.

Real glad to see this thread kicking off and drawing so much interest. It also means more buying into these stocks :). Thanks everyone and good luck.
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This isa very good commentary.

Once I lean into you are you get more competent from experience through repetition, you have to deal with a host of refinements to make more money.

We will look at every ticket there is to chuck stocks out of the universe. we do this because the processs grows more and more like a machine stamping out tanks and heavy armor.

We want a supply of billets that are formable into money in our accounts. You will probaly discover you need a toy account and education accounts and travel accounts.

If we are getting, as vorso says, 10 to 15 pops in 3 to 4 days, then we need to go for it. We will force ourselves down to a 4 day 36% run necessary. But you cannot be remiss in do the daily job and thus get out of synch in your tasks.

If you are not rich, you will have a while where you are intransition. When I first came to ET I thought it was a normal trader place. I asked questions of people about how fast their capital basewas transitioning and what break points were they using for rate of change sectors. This is totally out of the box at ET. People say. I am unintelligible. I did not know 1 point a day on ES was where ET operates. Obviously this stock stuff makes more money than the leveraged commodities does.

I have learned to bear with the situation. I know know why people do not post their methods here. they all have perfect spelling, syntax and grammar. The only problem is that they have nothing substantive to post. Inandlong posts and hosts for MR Market cause he does slow cycles like inandlong. Inandlong can't trade the potential he can't even see what Mr Market did to fuck up his capital. for a while he championed mr market investment crap because of his place and viewpoint that does not afford any skills in determining the quality of anything.

So here is a post that explains to you what it is like as you do this at the beginning.

we will have a ratio of cycle completions to cycle early exits. this is different than win loss ratio. we need to make the money velocity of the rank number or we, as vorso says, are uot and into a stock that performs. trend fader only makes money on 25% of his entries; 75% do not perform. This is advanced dart board. Most of his trades (40%)are scratches (recognizing they are not goi9ng anywhere) and about the same number are losses(35%). Thiskind of trading took him years to get to break even. He did 100 trades this way and did not figure out he lost a year of investing after doing it worse for 8 years before that.

we are replacing this kind of performance with cycles. A few cycles, say four weeks maybe, replaces 8 years of trend fader.

this is where the word CATCHUP comes from. Inandlong is back further in the process, he is like MR Market only he holds longer than 6 weeks to make one cyckle we do in 6 to 8 days.

When I came here I did not understand these types of posters were the modus for ET. The falmers do not attack these guys, they have syntax and grammar going for them. why would you be sceptical of them if you weredoing the same damn thing. You would not be sceptical, it is just right down the middle for a tee shot of 60 yards.
 
Quote from gms:

But now, you must understand the correlation between being 'concise and clear and to the point' and communicating whatever it is you wish to convey, because, to give you an example, your sentence:

"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and it's communication to others."

as you've written it, means:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and my viewpoint serves as communication to others."

If the apostrophe in "it's" was a misuse, then your sentence would be:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and its communication to others."
meaning:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and the communication of that viewpoint to others."

These all have different meanings. One is confusing enough. Compound a few of these and it's no wonder everyone comes away with a slightly different take. There's no defense for that.

FWIW, I think you meant:
"My viewpoint is related to a different topic than knowledge and information and their communication to others."

Mathematicians, scientists and doctors speak in the universal language of their study so as not to be misunderstood in terminology.

We have English, with its rules and grammar.

This is not a live class where one can raise their hand and ask the lecturer to rephrase or be more specific without automatically creating another 6 pages of thread.

A lecturer refusing to make himself clear is like a student who mumbles his answers, isn't it?
More...

cool dicussion of what I am not doing. Please give me something of quality on what I am doing. I have theGuidebook for the ES almost through a third edit. I can place the slug of text you come up with up front so people can decide to not go further as soon as possible.
 
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