Here's the Precise Moment When We Should Have Known QE Went Wrong

[Sotnis]

At some point during Fed QE, the markets started reacting positively to bad news. This is when things started going wrong. Bad news became good news for asset prices, as markets expected more QE by the Fed.

Asset prices were increasingly deviating from fundamentals, as the markets were trading the Fed instead of the economic reality. This was clearly not sustainable.

Just an interesting notion. What could this mean?

 

[Visaria]

Asset prices were increasingly deviating from fundamentals, as the markets were trading the Fed instead of the economic reality. This was clearly not sustainable.

I don't think asset prices are or were deviating from fundamentals, seeing that monetary policy is a fundamental. Your whole premise is incorrect.

 

[cdcaveman]

I don't think asset prices are or were deviating from fundamentals, seeing that monetary policy is a fundamental. Your whole premise is incorrect.

Monetary policy is a price distortion to fundamentals....

 

[Arnie]

At some point during Fed QE, the markets started reacting positively to bad news. This is when things started going wrong. Bad news became good news for asset prices, as markets expected more QE by the Fed.

Asset prices were increasingly deviating from fundamentals, as the markets were trading the Fed instead of the economic reality. This was clearly not sustainable.

Just an interesting notion. What could this mean?

That's classic behavior in a bull market...investors discount so called "bad" news.

 

[Scataphagos]

At some point during Fed QE, the markets started reacting positively to bad news. This is when things started going wrong. Bad news became good news for asset prices, as markets expected more QE by the Fed.

Asset prices were increasingly deviating from fundamentals, as the markets were trading the Fed instead of the economic reality. This was clearly not sustainable.

Just an interesting notion. What could this mean?

There has for a long time been axioms... "don't fight the Fed", and "the Fed writes the market letter".

The Fed has morphed from "cryptic obscurity in the background" to "headline news" with the financial markets hanging their hats on every nuance.

When the day comes that the Fed's actions are FADED... that is, "we know what the Fed did, and either we don't care or is no longer relevant"... THAT'S the time when the whole house of cards "comes a cropper". Not there just yet, but perhaps closer than most hope??

Question... What happens when any Fed action becomes "priced in" and totally disregarded??

 

[NoBias]

That is easy....... January 20, 2009

 

[eurusdzn]

Market prices lead the fed around by the short hairs these days.
This is sort of derived simply by observation. How can one conclude
otherwise.

 

[der_kommissar]

There has for a long time been axioms... "don't fight the Fed", and "the Fed writes the market letter".

The Fed has morphed from "cryptic obscurity in the background" to "headline news" with the financial markets hanging their hats on every nuance.

When the day comes that the Fed's actions are FADED... that is, "we know what the Fed did, and either we don't care or is no longer relevant"... THAT'S the time when the whole house of cards "comes a cropper". Not there just yet, but perhaps closer than most hope??

Question... What happens when any Fed action becomes "priced in" and totally disregarded??

CB's actively trade the markets...hell, the CME has an incentive program for them...Sadly, with liquidity largely disappearing over the past 6 years, it leaves quite a large hole that they have filled.

 

[der_kommissar]

Market prices lead the fed around by the short hairs these days.
This is sort of derived simply by observation. How can one conclude
otherwise.

It would seem that way...but then again, the SPX traded in that tight range for maybe 6 months with that support line defended vigorously for months at a time...suddenly the bids disappeared and we fell about 200 SPX points in less than 3 days...It provided plenty of cover to not raise rates (dollar strength was also wreaking havoc around the world)...

 

[piezoe]

CB's actively trade the markets...hell, the CME has an incentive program for them...Sadly, with liquidity largely disappearing over the past 6 years, it leaves quite a large hole that they have filled.

All the transactions of the U.S. CB are posted on the internet. Check them out for yourself to see what they are buying and selling.