Here's an 84% Winning Strategy You Can Use !

Statistics can be interesting.
Buy at the close. Close the following day at the open. Repeat.

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M.W. said:
Sponsors can mislead or at the very least ignorantly state factually incorrect things BECAUSE they are sponsors? And go unchecked? In what world are you living?
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The world where traders take personal responsibility for THEIR choices.

Most don't retailers short don't .... because they are afraid to. So they find all kinds of reasons why it doesn't work. "If the shoe fits".
 
Statistical Trader said:
Nice ad for your software.

At 12:10, you state "84% of the time the stock closed below the high in the first 30 minutes."

Nobody can profit from this information by going short at the high in the first 30 minutes because at any moment during the first 30 minutes, we never know if we're currently at the high or if the high will be later within that 30 minute interval, so we never know when to execute the short.

(Caveat: if we're at minute 30 and the price also happens to be the high of the interval, then we know we're at the high of the first 30 minutes, but that doesn't fix the problem.)

I don't think anyone would want to build "on top of" this demo... but they might like to build "beside" it. What I don't really appreciate is the insinuation that you're giving away a strategy with an 84% win rate when in fact you're just demonstrating your software. It seems disingenuous to me. "HERE'S AN 84% WINNING STRATEGY YOU CAN USE!"

My apologies if there's more to it than that... I'll freely admit I only spent 5 minutes watching your video because I don't have 30 to burn. I skimmed forward to 12:10 and then on the statement quoted above, I stopped watching.

Incidentally, we can use highs and lows during an interval of time as filters or covariates for a future action, but we can never trade AT current highs or lows over a time period that hasn't yet expired just because in hindsight we know that they were highs or lows at that moment in time. This is not to be confused with trading at a new high or low over a lookback period up to the present moment.
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Then I'd recommend you to watch the whole vides, as I didn't suggest to go short in the first 30 min, but to have that as the risk lvl.

And in general - it was a video showcasing an idea and the process of coming up with a strategy, and not necessarily implementing this exact one.
 
Your calculations are based on a set of rules and a period in past. You have for that period indeed 84% of winning trades, and numbers about winning and losing trades.
The problem now is that these stats have no value at all for future. I am sure if you would use the same set of rules for another period all the numbers will be different from the numbers you had in your video. That is logical as market behavior is dynamic, not static. So your statement about 84% is worthless. Unless you confirm in writing that , if I use the rules you used, I will have 84% winning trades and the expectancy ( which is calculated with avg profit and avg loss per trade and % of winning and losing trades) will be exactly the one you had in your video. And you should confirm that you will take the losses if there are any beyond the results of what your video gave.
You might as well just optimize a MA to record returns and state that this will be the results in future. Complete nonsense.

Do the test: change the period and leave all the rest the same. I am sure your numbers will be different. And that is logical as the data will be different. You cannot have the same results with different data. Also, depending on the strenght of the trends, the values on the exit moments can be at much higher or lower prices then in your video.
 
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