Here's an 84% Winning Strategy You Can Use !
- Thread starter Spikeet
- Start date
Nice ad for your software.
At 12:10, you state "84% of the time the stock closed below the high in the first 30 minutes."
Nobody can profit from this information by going short at the high in the first 30 minutes because at any moment during the first 30 minutes, we never know if we're currently at the high or if the high will be later within that 30 minute interval, so we never know when to execute the short.
(Caveat: if we're at minute 30 and the price also happens to be the high of the interval, then we know we're at the high of the first 30 minutes, but that doesn't fix the problem.)
I don't think anyone would want to build "on top of" this demo... but they might like to build "beside" it. What I don't really appreciate is the insinuation that you're giving away a strategy with an 84% win rate when in fact you're just demonstrating your software. It seems disingenuous to me. "HERE'S AN 84% WINNING STRATEGY YOU CAN USE!"
My apologies if there's more to it than that... I'll freely admit I only spent 5 minutes watching your video because I don't have 30 to burn. I skimmed forward to 12:10 and then on the statement quoted above, I stopped watching.
Incidentally, we can use highs and lows during an interval of time as filters or covariates for a future action, but we can never trade AT current highs or lows over a time period that hasn't yet expired just because in hindsight we know that they were highs or lows at that moment in time. This is not to be confused with trading at a new high or low over a lookback period up to the present moment.
At 12:10, you state "84% of the time the stock closed below the high in the first 30 minutes."
Nobody can profit from this information by going short at the high in the first 30 minutes because at any moment during the first 30 minutes, we never know if we're currently at the high or if the high will be later within that 30 minute interval, so we never know when to execute the short.
(Caveat: if we're at minute 30 and the price also happens to be the high of the interval, then we know we're at the high of the first 30 minutes, but that doesn't fix the problem.)
I don't think anyone would want to build "on top of" this demo... but they might like to build "beside" it. What I don't really appreciate is the insinuation that you're giving away a strategy with an 84% win rate when in fact you're just demonstrating your software. It seems disingenuous to me. "HERE'S AN 84% WINNING STRATEGY YOU CAN USE!"
My apologies if there's more to it than that... I'll freely admit I only spent 5 minutes watching your video because I don't have 30 to burn. I skimmed forward to 12:10 and then on the statement quoted above, I stopped watching.
Incidentally, we can use highs and lows during an interval of time as filters or covariates for a future action, but we can never trade AT current highs or lows over a time period that hasn't yet expired just because in hindsight we know that they were highs or lows at that moment in time. This is not to be confused with trading at a new high or low over a lookback period up to the present moment.
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I looked at the video as well and got the same
impression as @Statistical Trader - that it is
disingenuous to say "Here's This" and link
to a video of something you are pushing.
I have figured the specific time of day to look
at a chart, if the stock is higher than it was at
opening, it is highly likely to continue going up
until whenever, so I don't need a software to
tell me something my eyes can see for free.
But I am sure there's lots of lazy people who do
not want to do things themselves, you should
have a great success with your sales.
impression as @Statistical Trader - that it is
disingenuous to say "Here's This" and link
to a video of something you are pushing.
I have figured the specific time of day to look
at a chart, if the stock is higher than it was at
opening, it is highly likely to continue going up
until whenever, so I don't need a software to
tell me something my eyes can see for free.
But I am sure there's lots of lazy people who do
not want to do things themselves, you should
have a great success with your sales.
That video was Boring.
People buy the Person, the character, the emotions, the sensations....not the product.
You need to make your sales pitches and videos....sexy, bright, and bold....kind of like Porn.
Sell the Sizzle, not the steak,
Just observe the top salesmen and social media personalities....replicate their similar styles of production,
The stocks you have identified have very large spreads that eat most of your profits. You have not properly accounted for outlier conditions that prevent you from covering a short in a squeeze. So your stop loss is fiction and not achievable. Each year there are 2 or 3 days where a stock squeezes higher into multiple halts without liquidity for covering a short.
The professional money calculates these costs you have ignored. You haven't found anything new at all. Retail options traders make similar mistakes. It all comes down to some cost you did not account for.
The professional money calculates these costs you have ignored. You haven't found anything new at all. Retail options traders make similar mistakes. It all comes down to some cost you did not account for.
Sponsors can mislead or at the very least ignorantly state factually incorrect things BECAUSE they are sponsors? And go unchecked? In what world are you living?
I managed to watch for < 5 secs only.
anyway, the 84% win rate seems too good to be true.
perhaps it is the way he defines the win rate.
If the win rate is say 50%, I might consider watching the whole video.
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Even you short at the high of the first 30 minutes , you still can't make it a winning strategy. Because your loss per trade could be much higher than your winning per trade.
As a discretionary trader the thought of entering a short position at EXACTLY 10 am sounds like a recipe for disaster. Too many crazy things can happen during that 6 hour period, I dont care what the backtesting stats show. And slippage when you try to stop out will probably eat into your profits. I do commend you though for trying to find an automated system that works,kind of a Jim Simons wannabe I suppose. I know there's a bunch of you out there.