https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...y-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599
The Pandemic Could Be ‘Effectively’ Over by April, According to J.P. Morgan
The current
trajectory of Covid-19 cases and vaccinations implies that the global pandemic could be as good as over in just
a couple of months, a team of
J.P. Morgan analysts that includes global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy Marko Kolanovic said on Friday. That’s a much faster timeline than the market and most economists are working with.
The J.P. Morgan analysts aren’t concerned about the potentially
more contagious U.K. coronavirus variant, referred to as B.1.1.7., which has been discovered in dozens of countries and more than 30 U.S. states. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
warned that the U.K. variant could become the dominant strain in the U.S. by March.
“The spread of the B.1.1.7. variant is not inconsistent with an overall decline of Covid and an end of the pandemic in Q2 due to vaccination, natural immunity, seasonality, and other factors,” Kolanovic wrote on Friday. “…While the dataset is still small, statistical analysis of current vaccination data is consistent with a strong decline (i.e. effective end) of the pandemic within ~40-70 days.”
That range means somewhere between the end of March and the end of April—in other words, just around the corner.