I think it does matter whether they get him or not. If he escapes and still has plenty of funding, he is still a threat...his sons too. To fail to get bin laden or Hussein would be too much for Bush. These guys are like street dealers, you can kick them off their corner, but they will pop up somewhere else still in business - removal is the solution.
It's been daylight over there for more than 10 hours now. The crater is 60 feet deep. If they got him, it would be out by now. Even only finding a few teeth or something, there would be people who survived in proximity to the place who knew he was there and word would spread in the streets. CNN has all but dropped the story, like that 100 acre "chemical weapons facility" a few weeks back.
I think we get a decent pop when they really do get him and/or when there's any kind of formal surrender. Neither of these things may happen, then we get back to the economy. That sucks right now.