Here is why owning some Bitcoin now makes sense

D

Daal

Its possible that the bubble has burst and bitcoin will do nothing for years, its also possible that you will see another giant speculative wave and the bubble will continue. Nobody knows what will happen. However, its possible to know a few things:
-If being bullish is right, the investor will make multiples of his capital (say 5x)
-If that is a mistake, its unlikely the investor will lose everything as BTC tends to retain some of its value even after severe declines fueled by horrible news (like in 2014). So the loss will be something like 50-70%

So, essentially the investor is getting 7-1 on his money to risk for another leg higher (later this year or next year).

"But what about XYZ and this other thing which guarantees its all over?"

Stanley Druckenmiller is probably the best macro trader of all time, yet he shorted the Naz bubble back in 1998/99 and dropped like a billion dollars on it. Then he went long in March of 2000 ("within 6 hours of the top" according to him) and dropped another billion or so after it. If the greatest macro trader even couldn't tell how a top looked like in real-time, what makes you think you can?

Maybe you can, but can you lay 7-1 odds against your call? Most people who think they know it all should have less confidence in their forecasts. If the best in the business had a hard time telling when things had more upside (98) and when it was over (2000) perhaps you will as well. To me it makes sense to have 1-3% of a portfolio on BTC just for that alone.

That's my 2c on this
 
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funny thing is when i was in phillipines traveling, i met some random brit at a bar and we connected on Ron Paul and politics about America.
He was telling me about the evil government and how bitcoin is gonna go to 1 million.

I told him Im a trader, and everything is telling me bubble....sure enough 1 month later, it pops lawlz.
I see what the charts tell me, and its still going lower for the short term.
 
Daal said:
-If being bullish is right, the investor will make multiples of his capital (say 5x)
-If that is a mistake, its unlikely the investor will lose everything as BTC tends to retain some of its value even after severe declines fueled by horrible news (like in 2014). So the loss will be something like 50-70%

So, essentially the investor is getting 7-1 on his money to risk for another leg higher (later this year or next year).
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This is a financial fallacy not taking into account government regulation, huge hacks, lack of trust and crypto competition among others.

Where did you pull out that 500% return? It is quite possible without any pos or neg news BTC will get stuck in a sideways range and unless you actively trade it, your returns will be close to zero.

If BTC doesn't improve but other coins do, people slowly will lose faith and start to abandon it the price slowly declining. Most people are in it for quick gains not for 20% annual appreciation.
 
Pekelo said:
This is a financial fallacy not taking into account government regulation, huge hacks, lack of trust and crypto competition among others.

Where did you pull out that 500% return?
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Look at past previous rallies, 5x is actually conservative. And the rest of your post is just the XYZ I mentioned in my OP. Lay 7-1 odds to people bet against your view
 
Daal said:
Look at past previous rallies,
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Have you ever seen a stock to have ATHs until forever? The good times have to come to an end eventually. 2017 was the year when cryptos went fully worldwide, whoever wanted to get in, got in.

But hey, mortgage your house and put it into BTC...
 
How does anyone know the fair value of Bitcoin? Why is a fair value not at $10? or $50? Where are these figures of $50K coming from? This is rhetorical. No one knows.

But here is a fact, go try and squeeze a dollar from a venture capital firm and see how far you go. On the other hand, if you had an ICO, you would get tens of millions of dollars with zero legal obligation to finish any project. The irony that every ICO companies wanted their money in ETH or BTC, so the ICO companies themselves have become speculators of BTC and ETH. When they saw their net worth sore to insane numbers while the day before all they could afford is a hoodie from Gap, they probably cashed out. Many of these coins were S##Tcoins.

If you look at Reddit forums about crypto you will start believing in negative IQ. Between the HODLrs and the "FUD spreaders", you would find a pretty good support group for the "believers" and if you bring any type of logic to the argument then you are a non-believer. The guys who organize TED has lost it as well. They brought a 15-year (Schmuck) who bought bitcoins at $12, and now he stands side by side with people that dedicated their life to science, philosophy, psychology and other areas while telling everyone that your toaster should be on blockchain and FIAT is gone along with our governments. Then the CME came because they thought they are missing out, then CBOT said they want in as well.

Now the whole business will have a lot more regulation, structure, and rules. Weak hands will be shaken out along with other players, and some sort of a new legal and structural framework will emerge. We may see growth, but in my opinion, it will not be as exponential as we have seen it in 2017.
 
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