August 14, 2012
SouthAmerica: Here is some information that I posted on the ET economic forum about 6 years ago regarding this subject as follows:
CBS â â60 Minutesâ â We Reached a Critical Point for the United States Economy
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...858&perpage=6&highlight=medicaid&pagenumber=1
September 1, 2006
SouthAmerica: ...Instead of wasting trillions of borrowed US dollars (borrowed from the other countries around the world) to wage wars around the world â the United States government should instead focus its attention and resources to a more important matter related to the future of the United States â âThe Ageing of America.â
Looking at strategies to deal with aging America it is by far a better use for all this borrowed money than used it to wage wars in foreign lands.
Why we are at a critical point regarding this ageing issue in the USA?
The issue is critical because the baby boomers â those born between 1946 and 1964 â began turning 60 this year and are rapidly approaching retirement age. By 2030, the number of people over age 65 in the United States will exceed 72 million â double the number in the year 2000. And with possible breakthroughs in science and technologies the number of Americans over age 65 can be even higher by 2030 â maybe as high as 75 million people.
The American mainstream media is doing a lousy job as usual and they are not raising the red flag to show to the American people this major shift in population age that is under way.
The mainstream media is not putting the spotlight on this coming problem. Most Americans are not aware of the magnitude of this problem and it is a problem that affects all of us â Republicans, Democrats, Independents, Catholics, Protestants, Jews, the rich, the poor, and so on â This should be among the major problems to be solved in the coming years and not be a problem that is not even showing in the radar of the Bush administration.
Today the United States has about 39 million people over the age of 65. But by 2030 â 24 years from now â this figure should grow to over 72 million people according to the US Census Bureau.
How is this going to happen?
One day in 2030 we will wake up in the United States and from nowhere the old folks multiplied themselves from 39 million people to 72 million people overnight?
No. Thatâs not the way that is going to happen.
What is going to happen in reality is that every year from 2006 to 2030 we will have approximately 1.4 million new people over age 65 to add to the number of people already over age 65.
Every single year we have a net gain of 1.4 new old folks to add to this pool of people -(The annual increase of 1.4 million is a net figure that takes into account the new group that turned 65 during the year less the old folks that died during that year.)
The best way to represent what is happening with this age group of people is to show a snow ball going downhill â at the top of the mountain we have a very small snowball going down hill - and as the snowball goes down hill the snowball increases in volume very fast as it picks more snow as it is rolling down hill on the mountain. By the time the snowball reaches the bottom of the mountain we have this massive snowball. The snowball grew so much in size with a little bit of snow at the time.
It is bad enough news that the population aged 65 and older is doubling in size between 2006 and 2030, but that is not the entire story â there is more bad news.
Research regarding the old folks shows that Medicare expenses increases drastically for the population who is classified as oldest-old (those aged 85 and older) â this group of people is supposed to grow from 4.7 million people in 2003 to 10 million people in 2030 and again double to 21 million people by 2050. The latter increase will reflect the movement of Baby Boomers into the oldest-old category.
As we dig it deeper this story gets even more interesting â The 1990 census reported that 37,000 Americans were centenarians. The number grew to 50,000 in Census 2000 â and it is projected that by 2030 the United States will have over 1 million people on this age category. Centenarians are the folks who are at least 100 years old.
Instead of a simple posting on this message board we can write an entire book regarding the impact that the snowballing of people aged 65 and older will have on the US economy year after year from now onâ¦â¦.
It is not going to be a pretty picture.
Most Americans have not realized as yet that this is a âtrain wreckâ that is coming very soon â it is a process that is under way â that is not some information that people put together to just scare the population â This is the real thing and the figures include all of us that are living in the United States today â our parents, our grandparents, our uncles, and all sort of relatives â These figures are made of people who are alive and living today in the United States.
Can the United States afford to keep this war going indefinitely in Iraq and costing a fortune in borrowed money, when the United States could use instead these hundreds of billions of US borrowed dollars to prepare the country for the ageing of its population?
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The mainstream media is not doing their job in the US regarding this train wreck, but today thanks to the internet we can do the job for them.
Remember this is a problem that will affect the lives of everyone and it does not matter if you are a Republican, a Democrat or belong to any other type of category â Ageing in the United States is a problem that will affect most of us and we have to work together to find innovative solutions for this major problem that is coming to the old USA.
Note: The source of information for most numbers mentioned above you can find on a report published by the US Census Bureau.
Current Population Reports 65 + in the United States - published December 2005.
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10-02-06 06:44 PM
Arnie: Give us a timeline. Anyone can go around saying the sky will fall. Lets get a concrete estimate of WHEN this will happen. Maybe you could enlighten us all and show us where this has happened in the past.
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CBS â â60 Minutesâ â We Reached a Critical Point for the United States Economy
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1221808&highlight=medicaid#post1221808
October 3, 2006
SouthAmerica: Reply to Arnie
I gave you a timeline â from 2006 to 2030 we are talking about 24 years.
................ Population............ Population
Year â¦â¦â¦â¦. Aged 65 + â¦â¦â¦...Aged 85 and Older
2006â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.39.0â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..5.3
2007â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.40.4â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦....5.5
2008 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦41.8 â¦â¦â¦â¦.â¦â¦â¦.â¦.5.7
2009 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦43.2 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.5.9
2010 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦44.6 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.6.1
2011 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦46.0 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.6.3
2012 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦47.4 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.6.5
2013 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦48.8 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.6.7
2014 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦50.2 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.6.9
2015 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦51.6 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.7.1
2016 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦53.0 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.7.3
2017 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦54.4 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.7.5
2018 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦55.8 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.7.7
2019 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦57.2 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.7.9
2020 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦58.6 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.8.1
2021 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦60.0 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.8.3
2022 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦61.4 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.8.5
2023 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦62.8 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.8.7
2024 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦64.2 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.8.9
2025 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦65.6 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.9.1
2026 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦67.0 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦ 9.3
2027 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦68.4 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.9.5
2028 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦69.8 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.â¦9.7
2029 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦71.2 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.9.9
2030 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦72.6 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦10.1
The above table gives you a concrete estimate of the number of people age 65 and plus that we can reasonable expect here in the United States from 2006 to 2030.
I want to bring to your attention that these people are already here â they are your mother, your father, your grandparents, your relatives and friends â these are actual people living today in the United States.
These numbers can be even higher if we have some major breakthroughs in medicine, in healthcare, and also if the United States absorbs a massive amount of older illegal immigrants from other countries in the coming years.
What is happening here in the United States today regarding its population has never happened before. We donât have a past history to be able to study the past. The United States never had so many old folks around. I want to remind you that the average age when people died in 1900 was around 47 years old.
Population of the United States
Year â¦â¦.Millions of People
1900 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.76
1910 â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.92
1920â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦106
1930â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦123
1940â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦132
1950â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦151
1960â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦179
1970â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦203
1980â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦227
1990â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦249
2000â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦281
2006â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦300
Longivity
People in the United States are living longer and healthier lives than ever before. Average life expectancy at birth rose from 47.3 in 1900 to 76.9 in 2000.
When Ronald Reagan was president in the 1980âs the United States still could afford to play the deficit game and heavy expenditure on defense since the âtime bombâ of the Baby Boomer generation still decades in the future.
In 2006 the story is different the Baby Boomers are reaching age 60 and from now on they are going to have a tidal wave of people living in the United States over age 65.
The sudden increase in longevity will create a large pool of people over 85 and older and these older folks are going to cost a fortune to the US government in the coming years in Social Security, Medicare, and so onâ¦..
Part 1 of 2
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