Here Is The Huge Bond Spike

My theory is that someone on the BLS distribution list is very much aware of the news embargo; however, by waiting until seconds before the actual release, the opportunist thinks (wrongly) that people aren't going to notice.

Seconds do matter. All a regulator has to do is trace the buyer back to the firm getting the BLS data. Probably some schmuck at Goldman again who eventually wants to run for Senator of New Jersey... In any case, whoever did the buy "rounded up" to 8:30. Makes Martha Stewart look like a patzer.

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Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 04-338
http://www.bls.gov/cps/

Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release is
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, March 5, 2004.
 
Quote from swoop[TR]:

Come on... Also, was looking at the euro at that time and it didn't seem to have any suspicious activity, at time of bloomberg release, so if anything you guys might want to do is adjust your watch to reflect Actual time. Insider timers are no idiots they don't just pile up contracts for everyone to see, they do it accross a broad range of products so that it is harder to figure out.
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Are you saying that the bonds didn't move prior to the release? Are you serious???!!! They moved at least ten seconds before the release on the newswires. The bonds moved first, shortly followed by the Notes, and then the Bund. They all moved prior to the release of the number. If I recall correctly, the bond was up almost a full point, the notes about 12 full ticks, and the bund around 40-50 ticks. Not minor moves. That's an absolute fact. I was watching them along with the Bloom terminal and other wires. It has nothing to do with adjusting clocks! LOL!!!

You can't get off any significant size right before the number releases without significantly moving the market. The books are too thin. It would be too hard to hide a large order no matter what you tried to hit. It was obvious that someone had this one a few seconds early.
 
Yeah sometimes they are different, but are usually within fractions of a second with each other. Especially on a number as big as this one. The bonds moved at 7:29::48s (CST). Bebe's time is exactly right. No way in hell that can be attributed to wires being different. Not a fat finger error either because other products were also hit one by one, all before the release.
 
I too noticed the spike in the bond futures about 10 seconds before the data appeared on Bloomberg on Friday. This time the suspicious trades took place a few seconds earlier than in the past, but it is certainly not the first time something like this has happened recently. I trade U.S. treasury futures every day and can think of at least two other instances this year when the bond futures spiked (in the right direction) 3-5 seconds before the 8:30 EST release of major economic data. I'm surprised this issue hasn't come up until now, and I've often wondered whether it is being investigated.
 
Quote from ig0r:

I think the question should be, how many times has it spiked in the wrong direction seconds before?
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exactly. Why not jump on the wagon.
 
- I think the question should be, how many times has it spiked in the wrong direction seconds before? -

did not the treasury complex in the first week in FEB have a huge spike in the wrong direction just before a big # ( ISM maybe )?

it then reversed and went back to where it was before the #
 
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