Herbalife (HLF) Exposed!

With the multilevel marketing machine on full alert the HLF structure will be stamped by their lobbyist in Congress. You have no idea who is a part of these groups. First of all its a major tax write off for the wealthy. Its a training source for future entrepreneurs and every member has the chance to get to the top.

MLM support will come from behemoths like AMWAY and then its over. If their members start buying stock the squeeze gets enormous. There won't be any stock available soon. This will be a blood bath. If the revenues are continuos then the stock goes higher but on merits of violations based on pyramid scheme then its pure bull.

HLF to 60 bucks. Thats my 12 month prediction. These companies are like cults and they tell you about pyramids when you sign up.
 
Hi All

So i spent the weekend going through the Ackman HLF website including reading the depositions and the other down in weeds info.

I am looking to go short with a 90plus day view. I am sure SEC are going to kick some doors in as they wont allow another Madoff on their watch!! Its hard to believe that they have not been doing their own analysis.

So question is do I short the stock or short via options. If options I am interested in strategies. I am looking at a Bear Call spread. Any thoughts...?

Andy
 
Quote from Andiroo:

Hi All

So i spent the weekend going through the Ackman HLF website including reading the depositions and the other down in weeds info.

I am looking to go short with a 90plus day view. I am sure SEC are going to kick some doors in as they wont allow another Madoff on their watch!! Its hard to believe that they have not been doing their own analysis.

So question is do I short the stock or short via options. If options I am interested in strategies. I am looking at a Bear Call spread. Any thoughts...?

Andy
More...

Buy puts 3 months out.
 
Quote from Andiroo:

I am sure SEC are going to kick some doors in as they wont allow another Madoff on their watch!!
More...

So you are betting on the SEC acknowledging that they let HLF to operate illegally for 32 years? Yeah, that is a sound bet....
 
Quote from Andiroo:

So you think they will carry on with "business as usual"....
More...

I quoted a lawyer in this thread. His analysis was pretty sound. The accusation won't stand up in court... One thing what you know, the other thing what you can prove and the 3rd thing how the SEC interprets the law.
 
that is why the stock is in the 40's it is either worth zero or $80 with half believing each way making the market where it is.

this is binary outcome but with so much cash generation...

the only problem for the shorts is waiting for the investigation to conclude or any future court case to be decided meanwhile the company buys back 75% of the float over the next few years or goes private through LBO and says goodbye to wallstreet again (smart option).

it would be tough to be short paying about 5% negative interest rate carry plus a dividend which they will probably raise in the next few months.

over time the longs would win by default if nothing further happens involving ftc/sec.

good luck to both sides
 
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