Help needed - I overtrade after 11am

[SPX Options Trader]

For hobby, I play sax

A Saxophone player...a musician...that means you're a hot-blooded, passionate, soulful, people person. That can be a double-edged sword in life.

The ideal trader...should be a philosopher, reader, artist, tea drinker, introvert.

 

[deaddog]

The ideal trader...should be a tea drinker, introvert.

 

[Math_Wiz]

Ken, your Fidelity account offers free trades, so I'm guessing they sell your order flow. That said, I think the major ETFs, including the triple ETFs and UVXY, are all likely dominated by smart money, and it's easier for them to trade against your order flow and you lose. Conversely, your morning picks where you make money daily are often small no-name stocks, like INDP, GEVO, ATER, etc. These stocks are not dominated by smart money, and have a bunch of dumb money chasing the momentum, especially in the morning hours, and so you win on these trades.

I don't know if any of this is true, but I have a hunch that it's all true.

So my suggestion is, if you have enough money, open a second brokerage account at Lightspeed or some other direct access broker where you pay commissions, and after 11am use that broker exclusively and watch the results, see if they are different.

Alternatively, if you wish to trade after 11 in your current account, try not trading any ETFs after 11am. Go back a few months on your broker's statements and see if you consistently lost money after 11am by trading ETFs, and also see if you consistently MADE money after 11am by trading no-name stocks.

 

[ChipShotTrader]

Ken, your Fidelity account offers free trades, so I'm guessing they sell your order flow. That said, I think the major ETFs, including the triple ETFs and UVXY, are all likely dominated by smart money, and it's easier for them to trade against your order flow and you lose. Conversely, your morning picks where you make money daily are often small no-name stocks, like INDP, GEVO, ATER, etc. These stocks are not dominated by smart money, and have a bunch of dumb money chasing the momentum, especially in the morning hours, and so you win on these trades.

I don't know if any of this is true, but I have a hunch that it's all true.

So my suggestion is, if you have enough money, open a second brokerage account at Lightspeed or some other direct access broker where you pay commissions, and after 11am use that broker exclusively and watch the results, see if they are different.

Alternatively, if you wish to trade after 11 in your current account, try not trading any ETFs after 11am. Go back a few months on your broker's statements and see if you consistently lost money after 11am by trading ETFs, and also see if you consistently MADE money after 11am by trading no-name stocks.

@KCalhoun

Lightspeed + eSignal (which you already use, but need to update), and you are golden.

@TrailerParkTed can give you a hand with stock screening.

@Robert Morse can help opening the account.

Commissions are cheaper than losses...

 

[Robert Morse]

If you have any questions, my email and phone # are below.

 

[KCalhoun]

Ken, your Fidelity account offers free trades, so I'm guessing they sell your order flow. That said, I think the major ETFs, including the triple ETFs and UVXY, are all likely dominated by smart money, and it's easier for them to trade against your order flow and you lose. Conversely, your morning picks where you make money daily are often small no-name stocks, like INDP, GEVO, ATER, etc. These stocks are not dominated by smart money, and have a bunch of dumb money chasing the momentum, especially in the morning hours, and so you win on these trades.

I don't know if any of this is true, but I have a hunch that it's all true.

So my suggestion is, if you have enough money, open a second brokerage account at Lightspeed or some other direct access broker where you pay commissions, and after 11am use that broker exclusively and watch the results, see if they are different.

Alternatively, if you wish to trade after 11 in your current account, try not trading any ETFs after 11am. Go back a few months on your broker's statements and see if you consistently lost money after 11am by trading ETFs, and also see if you consistently MADE money after 11am by trading no-name stocks.

Excellent points.... will check into it. I've got accts with fdly ibkr amtd

Great point re small cap dumb money, many of those are best premkt like I traded Friday, forgot ticker, C...

Would be great if fdly would allow OTO orders premkt. They're releasing updated atp workstation by year end, I'm told

 

[ChipShotTrader]

Excellent points.... will check into it. I've got accts with fdly ibkr amtd

Great point re small cap dumb money, many of those are best premkt like I traded Friday, forgot ticker, C...

For what you are doing, LIGHTSPEED is ALL you need (close ALL the rest; you don't need them).

Then, you may want to go @Dustin's way, and use LS for options...

 

[Overnight]

As an aside @KCalhoun something occurred to me, which is really basic. From the bull vs. bear perspective perhaps?

I have noticed that in an orderly bull market, the most common pattern is a drop from the RTH open into the 1030 ET to 1100 ET hours, with a rise into the afternoon and into the close.

Since you are mostly bearish with your inverses and what-not, it logically follows that after 11 AMish ET, your inverses would give you trouble. Thus you noticing that after 11 AMish, you start falling down.

Of course some days the rise happens much later, at like 1, 2, 3 PM ET. And some days they do not happen at all.

But the pattern I described above is the one I have seen most of the time for many years in the indices. We're having a bit of a faff going into Q4 this year, but it is something to think about.

 

[maxinger]

View attachment 268162

This is only half the story.

We need that wife to tell us the other half of the story.

 

[KCalhoun]

As an aside @KCalhoun something occurred to me, which is really basic. From the bull vs. bear perspective perhaps?

I have noticed that in an orderly bull market, the most common pattern is a drop from the RTH open into the 1030 ET to 1100 ET hours, with a rise into the afternoon and into the close.

Since you are mostly bearish with your inverses and what-not, it logically follows that after 11 AMish ET, your inverses would give you trouble. Thus you noticing that after 11 AMish, you start falling down.

Of course some days the rise happens much later, at like 1, 2, 3 PM ET. And some days they do not happen at all.

But the pattern I described above is the one I have seen most of the time for many years in the indices. We're having a bit of a faff going into Q4 this year, but it is something to think about.

Right, there's often pivots 10-10:30, midday and eod.

I'm going to try tightening trailing stops near pivot times