Help me...What do I not see...Intel

C

Cabin111

I'm looking at Intel (INTC). I do own some...Was thinking of doubling down on it. Was thinking of buying 100 shares, then do a covered call for the June 23 $30 (in Roth IRA)...Get about $3.50 for the option. I (just me...No need to hate on covered call people) like to find beaten down, value companies. Ones that will turn around in a year or two.

I'd like to share the pros and cons, and (if you could) tell me why to avoid this company.

Pros

Over the last 18 months the company has dropped more than half.

It makes money!! $4.66 earning per share...PE of 6.29.

It seems to be holding market share. It is not totally lagging behind on new chip products.

It is selling a mobile chip division to pay for the Ohio plant.

Mature company with a 4.63% dividend.

Getting a boatload of money from the CHIPS Act, to help with the build out in Ohio.

Fair/good option money while I wait...

Cons

People do not have money to buy anything!! There is no discretionary spending going on.

They are deeply in China. China will milk them for all they are worth.

The Ohio plant will take years to build and more years to be up and running.

The Ohio plant will cost cost twenty billion and could go up to a high of one hundred billion.

Just because a company has made money before, does not mean it will make money in the future (GM bankruptcy 2009).

With a recession, people will not need new products with chips, and there will be a flood on the market.

They may not hold their dividend.

Thoughts?? Well thought out ideas please...
 
Cabin111 said:
Thoughts?? Well thought out ideas please...
More...
Purely speaking from a consumer point of view, PCs and laptops are on the way out while Tablets and Phones are on the way in. Most people I know no longer use their PC or laptops. All of their everyday tasks are done using their mobile devices.

Intel is for PC, Samsung is for Phone/Tablet.

Samsung beats Intel as top semiconductor seller as overall demand rises
Intel lost its place atop the 2021 semiconductor revenue list to Samsung, as global demand and revenue in the chip sector rose, according to Gartner.

https://www.computerworld.com/artic...conductor-seller-as-overall-demand-rises.html
 
%%
Good dividend
Good brand name.
good downtrend\
good sell\
good down\sloping 200dma\
good sell volume\
good downtrend on QQQ. QID is going up on most time frames , but that'$ bearish for INTC.:caution::caution:
 
Cabin111 said:
I'm looking at Intel (INTC). I do own some...Was thinking of doubling down on it. Was thinking of buying 100 shares, then do a covered call for the June 23 $30 (in Roth IRA)...Get about $3.50 for the option. I (just me...No need to hate on covered call people) like to find beaten down, value companies. Ones that will turn around in a year or two.

I'd like to share the pros and cons, and (if you could) tell me why to avoid this company.

Pros

Over the last 18 months the company has dropped more than half.

It makes money!! $4.66 earning per share...PE of 6.29.

It seems to be holding market share. It is not totally lagging behind on new chip products.

It is selling a mobile chip division to pay for the Ohio plant.

Mature company with a 4.63% dividend.

Getting a boatload of money from the CHIPS Act, to help with the build out in Ohio.

Fair/good option money while I wait...

Cons

People do not have money to buy anything!! There is no discretionary spending going on.

They are deeply in China. China will milk them for all they are worth.

The Ohio plant will take years to build and more years to be up and running.

The Ohio plant will cost cost twenty billion and could go up to a high of one hundred billion.

Just because a company has made money before, does not mean it will make money in the future (GM bankruptcy 2009).

With a recession, people will not need new products with chips, and there will be a flood on the market.

They may not hold their dividend.

Thoughts?? Well thought out ideas please...
More...

Been bearish on Intel for quite some time. Although the CHIPs Act is a significant positive and many associate Intel products with quality, Intel has allowed themselves to fall behind. How valuable is a growth company without a positive growth rate or a technology company that is not leading, if not cutting edge? Compare chip die process sizes for reference. To compensate, Intel has entered marketing agreements with those chip companies with cutting edge technologies, likely limiting Intel’s profit potential. The chip industry is likely experiencing excessive capacity issues right now as pent up and crypto related related demand is being increasingly satiated. Given planned large chip foundry projects in the US and beyond, the industry has the potential to experience excess capacity for an extended period of time. In addition, capital spending will decline should we enter a recession, a seemingly significant possibility.

I am still bearish on Intel and am content to wait for their and industry prospects to improve, preferring to buy an “Overpriced” company such as ENPH on corrections(Not that I would right now) because of superior demand outlook for their products and seemingly strong competitive position.
 
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Chewing on what has been said. I think I will look at a semiconductor ETF later this year. Buy, then do a covered call when there is blood in the streets. I'll hedge my bet...
 
Cabin111 said:
Chewing on what has been said. I think I will look at a semiconductor ETF later this year. Buy, then do a covered call when there is blood in the streets. I'll hedge my bet...
More...
1. US Government doing some sanctions/restrictions on semiconductor companies in general.
2. Always riskier to buy stock when in a down trend.

Suggest waiting until it looks like the stock might have bottomed for a swing or bigger move.
 
When analyzing INTC, it's critical to look at AMD. Both are direct competitor. AMD just release Ryzen 7000 Zen 4 cpu which is equal if not better than Intel's latest. On the discrete graphic, Intel is having problems with its ARC gpu. Intel made a strategic mistake trying to protect its server chip and limit the consumer chip to 4-cores. When AMD first release its Ryzen with >4 cores. Intel said, "4 cores is enough." Intel got stuck in the 14nm process node for a long time but since have moved to 10nm and 7nm whereas AMD is at 5nm. Smaller node gives better process, power and speed efficiencies. AMD seems to be pulling away from Intel with its Zen 4 architecture. By the smart money numbers, INTC does not look great.
 

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Scataphagos said:
1. US Government doing some sanctions/restrictions on semiconductor companies in general.
2. Always riskier to buy stock when in a down trend.

Suggest waiting until it looks like the stock might have bottomed for a swing or bigger move.
More...
US sanction is related to ASML EUV lithography and EDA software export to China. It has minimal impact to CPU supply. TSMC makes the main bulk of the wafer for Apple, AMD and Nvidia.
 
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