Help me understand crypto Market Cap and the role of new money....

Sprout said:
Good ole Max, true to his brand.
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fyi @NoahA

I missed the forest from the trees

I did not get in on Solana at $10 or lower or when it went up to $20 and kept going up. Same story with Avalanche and same also with Terra Luna and Fantom....

I failed to see the big picture story that was developing which was with the financial valuation growth to over $2 Trillion of the cryptos ecosystem, it naturally required more block space (information storage on the blockchain)

Not all block spaces are created equal. Litecoin and Monero and Digibyte, and other battle-tested L1 blockchains did not go up like crazy

Bless Bitcoin for being Bitcoin and being the reserve asset and gateway in-and-out of the cryptos financial system to the real world financial system, but currently, Bitcoin is not a smart contract platform

That's where the explosion of growth and development are happening with DeFi, NFT's and crypto gaming

Decentralized apps, running on p2p, trustless, immutable, decentralized, distributed, censorship-resistant L1 blockchains

Credit to the video below for my epiphany moment


 
When all money circulating in the crypto market, and so many people having rich and have huge money, but when they want to buy goods and services unavailable, it is possible to reverse the situation, money becomes useless and goods and services become highly expensive.
 
johnarb said:
I missed the forest from the trees
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It is unfortunate to think that if a person missed the entire BTC run, they could have still done just as well if they got in only 11 months ago since this is when so much of the new stuff did 100x easily.

I remember watching some SOL videos a couple of months back, and you know, I wrote off SOL because it was suggested at the time that it isn't truly decentralized, and this is very much the case. I even tried to transfer some SOL for staking a week ago, and it took 12 hours to go through since there was congestion, which was not fun. So honestly, I think that I can only say that the regret is there after knowing what happened, but looking at things purely based on hype and hope, its difficult to pick the winners.

Going forward, price action is incredibly important now. There is/was so much hype for ADA, and I'm sitting on some serious drawdowns. Same thing with DOT. So much excitement about those parachains, and the price is going in the wrong direction. So looking at the price action, and especially with reference to the rest of the market is key.

Going back 11 months, it was simply a matter of a bull run, and that famous phrase, everyone is smart in a bull run. I would truly be happy if this whole space consolidates into just a few clear winners. Trying to pick the winners now and where to place your bets is incredibly difficult at this stage of the cycle.
 
NoahA said:
Going forward, price action is incredibly important now. There is/was so much hype for ADA, and I'm sitting on some serious drawdowns. Same thing with DOT. So much excitement about those parachains, and the price is going in the wrong direction

Going back 11 months, it was simply a matter of a bull run, and that famous phrase, everyone is smart in a bull run
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It is extremely easy when cryptos are in a bull run. This choppy sideways to down movement the past month or so are incredibly frustrating

However, not sure if you watched the whole video but there's something that was hinted and it's kind of an insider info or more like known in the cryptos industry

The crypto projects are building furiously during the bear market or when prices are stagnant

During a bull market when prices are mooning and there's too much attention from the media and retail investors fomo and even the big investors coming in, there's simply too much distraction

I mean, we're all humans and there's too much $$$ in everyone's wallets, it's very easy to just enjoy the whole party scene, People flexing their wealth, flying first class to crypto events in far exotic places, and this is even with Covid

The point is that the VC's who invested in pre-sale of Solana at 2-5 cents and never sold even up to now knew what was being built. I remember being blindsided by ICO projects that came back to life with a vengeance, projects like LEND, Celsius, even Tezos (which I did hold and dumped when price went into coma)

I never got into ADA, because I don't see any ecosystem there, I think Polka DOT is still too early to see, so investing into DOT means waiting

But Solana, Fantom, Avalanche, and Binance Smart Chain, you got DeFi, NFT's and crypto gaming taking place now trying to avoid the high gas fees of Ethereum

Anyway, I don't know if I'm just going in circles, but I think once the bull market starts up again, then the prices of these projects will surpass their previous all time highs since they are not stopping with their development and growth even as we have this mini bear market, currently

I'm positioned in Btc, Sol, Srm, Eth, plus NFT's and keeping an eye on Ftm and Avax with a small glance at Star Atlas, NFA

Wish you the best, NoahA. Hang in there but definitely keep your eyes open for opportunities of the next 50-100x plays

It's interesting that Terra Luna is hitting all time highs with no care about our struggles. Perhaps it has something to do with their "go pound sand, SEC, you have no jurisdiction over a citizen of another country who did not issue a security" message :D
 
johnarb said:
Hang in there but definitely keep your eyes open for opportunities of the next 50-100x plays
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Gosh, I really don't think there are any left. For the market to 10x lets say, that bring it over 10T, which is getting pretty big. And if there is a coin out there that has yes to moon, it will have to somehow unseat one of the big players now. So I figure for it to 100x, it would mean that something has to drastically drop.

I know gaming is still in its infancy maybe, and there could be big players here still coming online, but in some respects, I think the crypto market is maturing. It takes a lot of money to move the BTC or ETH price now, and I just don't expect the stellar returns of the past.

I am in no position to have any credibility with predicting the crypto future, but I think as the market matures, lots of projects will continue to drop, and only a few survive, and those will do well, but even a 500k bitcoin, which will take years, is only a 10x from here. There might be some cataclysmic event which affects USD, which might in turn provide some parabolic gains for crypto, but going forward, I just don't think its possible anymore to take 10-20k and turn it into millions.

Its ok though, cause at least I'm going with the current now as opposed to swimming against it via fiat.
 
NoahA said:
Gosh, I really don't think there are any left. For the market to 10x lets say, that bring it over 10T, which is getting pretty big. And if there is a coin out there that has yes to moon, it will have to somehow unseat one of the big players now. So I figure for it to 100x, it would mean that something has to drastically drop.
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I disagree. Coins and projects will increase in marketcap independent of each other, as can be seen with Btc and Eth

I remember seeing Eth at $85 during the March 2020 crash but the chart on coinmarketcap doesn't show it now. Anyway, let's say $100 for easy math. Btc was $3500 during that crash. Bnb the 3rd coin was around $10-15

So Btc did 15x, Eth 40x Bnb did over 35x

What about total marketcap of all cryptos combined? I'm guessing it was $300B at that time so a 7x to $2.2T currently

And yea, Solana, Fantom and Avalanche, and Terra Luna whoopdeedoo

There were no coins unseating other coins. The total marketcap of all cryptos only increased by 7x, but coins went up by different factors

So, if total cryptos marketcap increase to $11T, a 5x from here, it does not mean all coins are going to 5x

Anyway, there's a lot of money printing going on in the world. Look at the marketcap of AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, and FB. Pretty amazing. Also the real estate prices all over the world

Certainly, cryptos marketcap can grow 5x from here in 1-3 years but if it takes longer, it's ok, too, we're not in a hurry, we're staying in cryptos forever, aren't we? :D

I do have to take back about keeping an eye out for 50-100x plays. I think more achieavable is 5-10x and if you get back to back play of 5-10x again, you could get your 25-100x returns

Can I see Solana going to $1000 per coin? Sure, why not, the circulating marketcap supply will still be less than Ethereum and who knows, Eth could be $10,000 per coin by then
 
johnarb said:
I do have to take back about keeping an eye out for 50-100x plays. I think more achieavable is 5-10x and if you get back to back play of 5-10x again, you could get your 25-100x returns
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Yup, exactly what I'm thinking. But at the same time, I think if we consider that we are in the late stages of this cycle, being in the strongest coins is the best course of action.

johnarb said:
Can I see Solana going to $1000 per coin? Sure, why not, the circulating marketcap supply will still be less than Ethereum and who knows, Eth could be $10,000 per coin by then
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Invest Answers has a target of $800. He figures this out based on his reasoning that SOL can capture 20% of the ETH market. Of course if ETH goes to 20k, and not the 8k that he predicts, then this would increase his $800 target.

Bottom line though is, going forward, I think we have to be mindful or trading it, trying to skip out on a bear market. But to be honest, I don't see where this bear market could come from. If institutions jump on board in Q1, and if rate hikes wreak havoc on the markets, so it will be clear that governments will have to print forever, there won't be anyone left in the world who isn't gonna want to get off fiat. I just don't see an 80% drop anymore to be honest.
 
NoahA said:
It is unfortunate to think that if a person missed the entire BTC run, they could have still done just as well if they got in only 11 months ago since this is when so much of the new stuff did 100x easily.

I remember watching some SOL videos a couple of months back, and you know, I wrote off SOL because it was suggested at the time that it isn't truly decentralized, and this is very much the case. I even tried to transfer some SOL for staking a week ago, and it took 12 hours to go through since there was congestion, which was not fun. So honestly, I think that I can only say that the regret is there after knowing what happened, but looking at things purely based on hype and hope, its difficult to pick the winners.

Going forward, price action is incredibly important now. There is/was so much hype for ADA, and I'm sitting on some serious drawdowns. Same thing with DOT. So much excitement about those parachains, and the price is going in the wrong direction. So looking at the price action, and especially with reference to the rest of the market is key.

Going back 11 months, it was simply a matter of a bull run, and that famous phrase, everyone is smart in a bull run. I would truly be happy if this whole space consolidates into just a few clear winners. Trying to pick the winners now and where to place your bets is incredibly difficult at this stage of the cycle.
More...

I'd focus on projects that have the potential of decoupling from BTC macro cycle. This particular halving, the infrastructure and development of other projects in new asset classes are more built-out. Last halving, we didn't have as broad regulatory clarity nor compliance, nor DeFi, MemeFi, NFT's, GameFi nor SocialFi.


On another note;
I'm not recommending, far from it and mostly monitor to keep tabs of the memeFi market. This guy just focused on sh*tcoins, most of them rugged but he did score some winners. He's a bit full of hubris but his wallet balance in the span that he did it is no joke. Tbh, I'm a bit salty of his ease of success.

If he can make it, there is plenty of opportunity in the space. Whether he can keep it is a story to yet unfold.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1391597414830776329
 
Sprout said:
This guy just focused on sh*tcoins, most of them rugged but he did score some winners.
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Mathematically, this can of course work if you catch a coin that does 10,000% or more. It will easily make up for dozens of losers.
 
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