Hedge Funds Q1 2019 YTD best aggregate returns since start of 2012

[sle]

no your math is wrong.... you don't have 241 all in at the beginning... this is a monthly deposit.

Oh, okay, so we are talking about different things. I thought you means 241 thousand is the total investment over the years to have a million dollars today which is about right. The monthly investment is about a thousand dollars - plug that into the calculator

PS. In fairness, 12%-13% return sounds about right 13 =~ 3.6/(0.5*20), I forgot that it's an averaged investment so I need to half the time, just wanted to illustrate that it's a lot of money to invest on regular basis

 

[ElCubano]

Specially when the only thing increasing is debt and not investments for most. It’s the reality.

 

[sle]

Specially when the only thing increasing is debt and not investments for most. It’s the reality.

Not to say that @dozu888 is wrong, you can become millionaire this way but it's much harder than the media says it is. A guy making 50k a year would have a fairly hard time setting aside a grand a month, I'd think.

 

[dozu888]

Specially when the only thing increasing is debt and not investments for most. It’s the reality.

the quality of the GDP can be debated till the end of time... this is something we cannot control.. but technology will always be leading the charge.

 

[dozu888]

Not to say that @dozu888 is wrong, you can become millionaire this way but it's much harder than the media says it is. A guy making 50k a year would have a fairly hard time setting aside a grand a month, I'd think.

cut cable, cut cell phone, cut starbux, cut take out lunch, cut beer... or, just get training and make 60k.

 

[ironchef]

cut cable, cut cell phone, cut starbux, cut take out lunch, cut beer... or, just get training and make 60k.

So true but that would be Un-American. And that is why immigrants ended up doing better financially.

 

[MoreLeverage]

You are smart, so you must be rich.

Or is it you are rich so you must be smart?

I believe this is normally phrased “if you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?”

 

[ironchef]

I believe this is normally phrased “if you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?”

I don't know because I am not very smart.

 

[Woodrow97]

The two characteristics of any dumb money is:
#1) They try to beat the market
#2) They take on huge directional risk while trying to doing so.

The pros couldn't care less about beating the market. If I'm worth $2 Billion, the last thing I care about is whether or not I make $500 million $100 million off the markets. My number one priority is instead, how to preserve my wealth by not losing any of it!

Let's apply this concept to hedge funds. Q1 return +5.49%, QQQ returned +17.5%.

Dumb money comes out: "wow underperform, so bad, I can do better!"

But these numbers are meaningless without analyzing the risks involved, what if the +5.49% return came at a -0.5% drawdown? what if the +5.49% return came at just being 10% exposure to stocks? These results would hands down beat the QQQ on a risk adjusted basis.

Returns presented without risk are meaningless. There are "traders" on wallstreetbets who made +21,076% on buying OTM options which turned into a home run, then lost -100% on buying the same OTM options over and over again cause apparently they thought they were the greatest trader in the world. Start with a $50K account, turn it into millions, then turn it into zero. Genius right? LOL

 

[ironchef]

But these numbers are meaningless without analyzing the risks involved, what if the +5.49% return came at a -0.5% drawdown? what if the +5.49% return came at just being 10% exposure to stocks? These results would hands down beat the QQQ on a risk adjusted basis.

Thank you for the coaching. Now my question is:

If I only own short term treasury, my risk adjusted return will beat most hedge funds as I have 0.0% drawdown?

After reading up on many of the threads here on the subject of risk adjusted return with folks telling me the outcome is the same, I am still not sure if a lower risk fund is better for me vs a higher risk fund with the same risk adjusted return when my time horizon is long. Say I am saving for retirement after 40 years and saving regularly every month?