Quote from ScapGF:
However, you can't diminish the level of difficulty and expertise that it takes to consistently outperform the indexes.
When a bunch of funds are trying to predict the market, some will always be above the indexes. That is called probability. There is little to no proof they exhibit "expertise." The financial crisis pretty much blew away the theory that the Quants and Predictors outperform. They just outperform until Risk of Ruin comes home to roost.
This is not a game of throwing darts with a blindfold on.
Could have fooled me. Blindly following indexes has usualy outperformed more than half the Predictor firms - in fact, most years, it was like the index outperformed 70% of the funds. The darts seem to be the better choice...