Heavy Selling in SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM on Friday Nov. 13
- Thread starter smile
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oh really? Can you then tell me where market is going next day, next week, next month, next year?
The flaw in your disbelief is that you demand future knowledge all the time when all you need is some of the time.
True, you can be right 10% of the time and still make money, you can also be right 90% of the time and still lose money
A good link to use but you need a sufficient amount of backtesting to be confident.
http://www.automated-trading-system.com/resources/risk-of-ruin-and-drawdown-calculation-tool/
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php
I am a very strong believer in probabilities since I have a math background which makes me comfortable with trading options. I strictly adhere to the risk of ruin formulas and it has not let me down. I actually never look at a chart when trading, I only look at option chains
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You not following me, I'm not talking about being right or wrong, I'm talking about the fact that the market is not always giving away free money, in fact, most of the time, it's not, yet traders can't help it and overtrade.
Many many times I don't know what are the market intentions, during those times I don't move a finger, doing so, would be gambling.
Other times, it's crystal clear to me and during those times is that I trade with the utmost conviction, exploiting all the leverage I can get my hands on because I am very rarely wrong when I get a signal. How else you think I can come to ET, make a strong statement and not end looking like an idiot? I know my shit, and know it well.
Anyway, knowing what to look for and with patience (flat is an important position) is the key to success.
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