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lovethetrade
I think you could be right. If they apply the same forward looking logic that they have done then there is no reason why these stocks will keep going up.
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Heads up - FB, APPL, AMZN, GOOGL - Earnings Thursday
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Mmm...Here's one thing to consider, the tale of two cities...
We know AMZN will be doing very very well this Q4, because as can be seen by today's numbers, AMZN does well when everyone is staying home and won't mask up to go to a store. In Q4 though? Last year life was normal. This year in Q4 EVERYONE will be shopping though AMZN for the holidays.
BUT!...We could get Biden in office to offset that. Mmmpfh!
Can you say VIX>50?
Vix 50 between now and December 31 I give a 80% chance....as for people staying home and constantly shopping on amazon. Yes it will continue but one simple covid vaccine and amazon may feel a bit of a pinch in the quarters ahead, until then amazon will do well but I do think consumption will slow a bit as consumers will look into having emergency savings funds rather than buying that 7th pair of sneakers....just pay attention to AWS. Those numbers were a tad weak which to me is quite surprising
By the way amazon doesn't always have the cheapest pricing. Yes people love the expedited shipping but even I have waited for items to save money. Im not really one of those gotta have it right away people. If I can save a bit of money and wait for my product im certainly fine with that.
Didn't Google cloud eat into a bit of that market? I like watching the two behemoths go at it in the cloud stuff.
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lovethetrade
The only problem is consumers won't have cash to burn in Q4. If you apply the same logic that they have done where they disregard bad news such as Q2 GDP and unemployment then the same logic has to be applied to circumstantial good news such as profiting from a pandemic and free money during Q2.
Who said anything about cash?
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lovethetrade
All I'm saying is they can't keep coming up with a convenient narrative to achieve an agenda of elevating stock prices. The same logic has to be applied consistently.
Oh, the narrative is that people love to spend whether they can afford it or not. Enter...The credit card. Hell YES people are going to spend if they are stay-at-home this holiday season. More so than last year is my feeling. When people are bored, they do some crazy things. Like spend beyond their means?
Remember, they feel they will be able to pay it off later!
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lovethetrade
If you look at the data I think you will see this is playing out as expected. Consumer confidence is now deteriorating after the initial honeymoon period of free cash. Governments are now rolling back their stimulus programs and the pressure will be on consumers to get a job. They will not be spending in Q3/4 like they were during the peak of the pandemic with all the uncertainty.
Q2 earnings for the FAANGs was circumstantial and these companies and their CEOs are made to look like kings. All this talk about how these companies have too much power blah-blah-blah is simply PR work to remind the world that they are world tech leaders which is all part of a nationalistic agenda.