- AMZN is going to breakout of 9-month trading range.
- Take a look at the 1-year chart.
- $180 below all time high.
- Earnings end of month.
- AMZN market cap 1.7 trillion.
- Should be 2 trillion.
Heads up - AMZN is going to breakout of 9-month trading range.
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That's what I expected back when it announced record returns in Q4 last year. I was betting on 3500+ to all time high.... instead it hit 3400 and retreated all the way down to sub 3k 3 months later. Amzn isn't cheap and any misreading can be costly. I was lucky to inch in a profit, but I really expected a windfall.
I do expect to see a bump off their win in their arm wrestle with the union.
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Really? Check out the supply chains for Amazon, particularly camping gear. Amazon.ca sells exact 7 camping tents. Many outdoor related items are not just sold out but not available for many months ahead and it's the beginning of camping season. If anything my hunch is that Amazon will post lower sales next quarter. I have seen similar situation in other categories as well. What's your fundamental reason why Amazon is holding up sales in this climate? If anything people will shop less online going forward as local stores reopen and restock once supply chains are repaired. Many items I generally ordered on Amazon I don't buy there anymore because I simply can't find what I am looking for. Right now my go to place for outdoor gear is camping world.co.uk that has almost every perceivable item in stock and can ship to North America within days. I see some very dark clouds on the horizon for the US and Canada in international trade. It almost appears as if China is prioritizing Asia and Europe when it comes to mass manufactured export goods. Amazon.de and Amazon.uk is nearly fully stocked, not so Amazon.com nor Amazon.ca
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Too bad dicearecast, who supposedly has me on ignore, does not understand momentum. Amazon.ca. REALLY? That is what he bases his whole thesis on? Canadian tent kits? People are still locked down, nobody can shop in the US without restrictions, and the online buying meme is only just getting started on a second wave of "Holy shit, we could have done all this online?"
*sniffs*
*sniffs*
First, I removed everyone ignore because I rather just ignore content myself... hence if I don't come across your constant music videos we can perhaps have a civilized discussion going forward.
Secondly, Amazon has zero upside momentum right now. If anything it trades in a well defined range. Hence your momentum argument actually speaks against Amazon longs. Next, I made clear I did not just consider Amazon.ca but Amazon US as well. And I observed the same situation in multiple other categories as well. What did you observe? Did you even care to take a closer look over the past couple months?
Secondly, Amazon has zero upside momentum right now. If anything it trades in a well defined range. Hence your momentum argument actually speaks against Amazon longs. Next, I made clear I did not just consider Amazon.ca but Amazon US as well. And I observed the same situation in multiple other categories as well. What did you observe? Did you even care to take a closer look over the past couple months?
Yes. Amazon had their best Q4 ever. I expect that momentum to carry forward through Q1, which we will find out in a few weeks in their earnings. They were caught up in the rotation from growth to value in Feb/March, and I strongly suspect that with their earnings they will come out ahead and hit new highs in Q2.
There is just too much AMZN saturation in everyone's lives, and it starting to finally show. Keep an eye on Alphabet, too. I am seeing so much crazy crap on Youtube with monetization. It's gone nuts. EVERYONE now seems to have a live channel, and is vying to get likes and subscribers. That means good click-thru dollars for Alphabet.
I referred to the next quarter. Hard to guess how q1 went, we shall find out soon. Re youtube I thing we have just passed a point of saturation. For most youtube is a fad and right now more and more people look to get reconnected to real life and the outdoors. Entire inner city condo complexes are emptying out in NYC and Toronto (and probably other cities too, where people move out to get larger spaces). If people make such radical choices they very much find it relatively easier to spend less time online and more in the real world. My take is that the growth rate (rate not absolute growth) has topped out for the time being in those specific areas.
On this I disagree. I think when people get into certain habits, they stick with those habits. And those habits are things like earning extra bux by posting content on the YT. And the subscribers will keep clicking the links. Over this past year folks have found a new paradigm of living.
More people will be permanent at-home workers now, and it is so so easy to just click on over to those channels and watch for a bit this year, like they have last year.
That's not what Trends show. People moving their entire life into the suburbs and country side. Camping gear completely sold out? There are some indications that people seek the outdoors where they can live some semblance of normal life