He bet his family’s entire life savings and mortgaged his home

[smallfil]

Here is the documentary on Don Johnson who also, beat casinos in blackjack.

 

[Turveyd]

So what is the next Bitcoin is the question, what can I get in for cheap and retire in 10years time???

99% of us, would of risking 200K got to +$500 profit and sold all, then screwed it up.

 

[noddyboy]

At the time of this crypto hype I didnt find it easy to buy and sell crypto and not only that but trusting any crypto exchange with more than a few thousand dollars of my money wasn't happening. Would be interesting to know what exchange he used and how much in taxes those crypto gains were. For anyone to actually believe that those gains were going to sustain themselves was foolish...out of thousands of cryptocurrencies less than 100 will be lucky to be around in the years to come. If the hype wasn't so great as it was the cryptocurrency fun could have lasted a long long time.

You seem to think that something that has gone up a lot must come down, but you have to do proper accounting. For example, if a business is started with $10 and capital of $1 is added for 10 years, then the book value should be $20. The same with crypto. A lot of coins are probably lost forever - you can tell because they were never moved and even Bill Gates sold stock over time. Add the energy costs of mining and of course the price should "fairly" go up.

 

[Pekelo]

A lot of coins are probably lost forever

This fact has no effect on the price of cryptos. Their value isn't based on reality.

 

[noddyboy]

This fact has no effect on the price of cryptos. Their value isn't based on reality.

1) If shares are being destroyed/lost, you surely agree with me that the price will go up -- total value divided by number of shares. Currently bitcoin is $158bn, but I think it is really $70bn because many people have lost their hard drives or died without leaving keys. Ether is only $20bn.
2) I am not sure what the fair value is, and I am not long, but I am just saying the math should be done properly. Every unicorn is trying to be worth $100bn. Should bitcoin be one unicorn worth? Maybe? Then that is the market value right now. All the unicorns should go to zero for all I care, but right here and now, it doesn't seem far off from the other speculative trades. I think WeWork goes to $0 before Crypto goes to $0.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

So what is the next Bitcoin is the question, what can I get in for cheap and retire in 10years time???

99% of us, would of risking 200K got to +$500 profit and sold all, then screwed it up.

Some OTM option on upcoming earnings season. I haven't done the backtesting but I gotta imagine you can have positive expectancy playing against consensus on some OTM options intelligently.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

1) If shares are being destroyed/lost, you surely agree with me that the price will go up -- total value divided by number of shares. Currently bitcoin is $158bn, but I think it is really $70bn because many people have lost their hard drives or died without leaving keys. Ether is only $20bn.
2) I am not sure what the fair value is, and I am not long, but I am just saying the math should be done properly. Every unicorn is trying to be worth $100bn. Should bitcoin be one unicorn worth? Maybe? Then that is the market value right now. All the unicorns should go to zero for all I care, but right here and now, it doesn't seem far off from the other speculative trades. I think WeWork goes to $0 before Crypto goes to $0.

The math needs to take into account what fraction of the world economy will be run off of BTC. My guess is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% which translates to $12/day probably.

 

[zdreg]

I will bet he will lose all his wealth quickly.

Can I invest my entire life savings on puts on this guy’s net worth?

I will sell you a put on his net worth. Let's negotiate.

 

[noddyboy]

The math needs to take into account what fraction of the world economy will be run off of BTC. My guess is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% which translates to $12/day probably.

My uncle has cancer and buys cannabis with BTC. For him it is worth a lot. Like if he already spent $100k on chemo, he is only spending $100 on cannabis medicine. On the other hand, he will never use GrubHub and that has zero value to him. He can get cheaper prices by calling the restaurant directly. So, it all depends on who you are. Until cannabis is legal, there is always a use for BTC and it is a lot more than $12. Again, I am not saying it is a buy or sell, just that the math has to be correct.

 

[Pekelo]

1) If shares are being destroyed/lost, you surely agree with me that the price will go up

No I don't agree. Several stocks and cryptos work differently, meaning you can't apply basic math and logic to them. As an example TSLA keeps printing new stocks, so you would think this has any effect on its price, but it has not.

Since the original number of shares/coins had no effect on price, if you lose X % that should have no effect either. And it is still just speculation about losing those coins.

Bottomline is: Bitcoin isn't at 10K because it has a limited X number of coins. It is this high because people expect it to go HIGHER. Simple as it is....