You say that because you don't have predictive tools.
Do you believe future is certain? This is a probabilistic assessment at best. I seriously think the way Db or I think about markets or prices is diametrically different from how you think about them. I seriously was shocked to hear that statement. It could be just a different in how we perceive opportunities.
Oil did not bottom, and at the very least, will re-test the lows, my read is giving me a high enough probability trade (although not 100%) to state that.
Doesn't that depend on the type of trader? Oil could actually go down but what if it does go up a bit, enough to squeeze some profit? Aren't you actually bringing to light what Db has been saying all along that everyone has a different risk tolerance and they need to adapt the strategy to their personality and needs. This is not automated trading we're talking about.
Not everyone trades using the same amateur tools you use.
You may be right. Maybe your tools are far advanced. Are they also resilient enough to last a century and the next once one masters those tools, or would newer and better tools make your current tools obsolete? If things work for you that's all fine and dandy. I hold no grudge that your system works for you. All the best.
Gringo
