Have You Been Here? Need Your Wisdom

Quote from Pondering Man:

This is my first post obviously. I need your help and wisdom. I am a small business owner and am in the process of selling my company. I’m in my mid 40’s with a beautiful wife and 2 beautiful kids.

Here’s the issue: the proceeds from the sale are not enough to retire comfortably and I’m left with no single avenue to support the family after the sale. I have an undergrad in Finance and an MBA and good industry (non-investment field related) experience but I detest the very idea of re-entering the corporate world. My wife is highly desirious of me working for The Man and I can see her point, as it provides a safety net. And so herein lies the conundrum.
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... I know all the failure statistics yet see myself as having most of the core competencies of a trader: analytical, passionate, hardworking, willing to put in the time/effort, realizing this is a business and not a hobby, etc, etc.

If not trading, is there any other type of investing you would recommend if you were in my shoes? Swing trading? Anything else?

Thanks so much for your constructive feedback.
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Your so called "core competencies," unfortunately, are not those of a trader. And I'm sorry to say the demeanor of your post gives me reason to believe you're going to fail. Hard. All those things are good, but in the presence of your psychological and social pressure it will backfire. What I mean is you are carrying things on your shoulders like family responsibility, a time limit, a desire NOT to work for the man, a desire NOT to go back to the corporate world, a wife who, it seems, is looking to you for provision, and more. Those are hamstrings to trading. You're welcome to try it, but when you pull the trigger on a trade at the worst possible place and close it at the exact wrong time, and subsequently feel manipulated and frustrated and self destruct, hopefully you'll realize at that time that analysis, passion, hard work, and especially willingness, your greatest assets, are being used against you.

Don't take this the wrong way, but you sound like a fantastic candidate for direct sales or direct marketing. There are thousands of companies out there that are structured as MLM's. 98% of them are pyramid schemes and Binary pay structures and have an enormous failure rate, are unfair to the bottom guy, and give the whole direct sales industry the reputation that it has. But if you can find a product that you love and others love, with a company that is Customer based and not Recruitment based, and especially one with a consumable product so that you can have repeat customers, I think that would be right up your alley. Look up the DSA (direct selling association) and find a few that have received the DSA's top award for several years running. Then pick one.
I'm part of one that has received that award for the last decade. They make a line of nutritional product that does stuff like reduce stress, help sleep, have more mental clarity, and other things that are immensely helpful to me as a trader. I don't think I could say the name on here without getting the post deleted, so mail me if you want to know. But that's my advice. You're avoiding the things that would earn you money, and pursuing the most dangerous game. Direct marketing is the only alternative I could think of because you're not going to win at trading in your state.
 
You can't afford to trade for a living. At some point you will either have a draw down or a shortfall and you will start eating into your investment account. As this happens it will be more likely to have another shortfall or another drawdown as you will be required take more risk to "make up the loss." Every trader has a drawdown.

By your situation, you will be the worst kind of trader/investor: the one who can't afford to lose.

The only people who should consider trading for themselves as a living are those who can earn a substantial amount more than their needs so that they can build a rainy day fund (by skill or capital base) or they have day jobs to provide that financial stability.

This is a dangerous idea.
 
Quote from Pondering Man:

This is my first post obviously. I need your help and wisdom. I am a small business owner and am in the process of selling my company...
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Keep your business...hire a good manager to run it for you during the tough learning period of your trading.

Simply, if you determine at a later date that trading isn't suitable for you...you can still return to your other business and that plan should encourage your spouse to have confidence in what you're doing in comparison to selling your business.

Mark
 
When I started in the early 1990s trading was much simpler than it is now. Even so, it took me 2+ years of full-time studying, back-testing, wandering down a thousand blind alleys, and "paper trading" until I proved out a method that would work on a consistent day-in/day-out basis.

If you pour your heart and soul into trading starting today, it will be at least 2 years until you even begin to show signs of making a consistent profit; and it could easily be 5 years until you're experienced enough and have built up your trading account enough to make a good living.
 
Quote from Pondering Man:

have any of you been in a similar situation (ie, midlife with retirement savings in progress but not quite there yet and needing to find a source of income)?
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Normally don't post, but since my situation was very similar (mid-40's, wife + 2 kids, some capital), I thought I'd chime in. I started full-time trading 2-1/2 years ago with no prior experience and so far it has been working out pretty well. I don't thiink I'd recommend it to a friend since it has been much harder than I expected. You will need an iron will because at times everyone will question your plan.

I am more of an opportunist than a trader, since I got into this due to the turbulent times we are going through right now. I like to swing trade markets that are trending in a direction that fits my macro outlook. I'm very mindful that at any time things could change and as soon as the economy veers off my script I plan to either quit trading or find a different methodology if I can. I don't consider myself a good trader at this point, but I'm working on it.
 
I just can't imagine some of the things I went through in my formative trading years if I was 40+ with kids and a wife. That isn't to say it can't be done, it is just a daunting thought to me.

What happens when you're down a million and you're wondering if you can climb out? What if you go on tilt?

If I were down 30%+ in a draw-down at this point, it would just be mildly annoying to me. Sure there is that thought deep down in my core that what if everything has changed and "this time it's different". But I have been through it many times, I have all the statistics and records to determine if it is unusual, and having insights into how things actually work having been through the emotional states, it is just a different ballgame.

I'm confident in the robustness of my risk management regime that I will be one of the last ones alive, at least in terms of being able to play the game, even if everything went to complete hell (aka 2008 without government backing of the system).

One day you wake up and realize being down 30% or 3% is simply a function of your leverage which should be a function of your risk tolerance and this becomes a very personal item.

Having a huge draw-down the first few times is much different when you have steady cash flow coming from some unrelated venture and either you don't have dependants or they are well provided for already.
 
Pondering man, instead of telling you how stupid this sounds, I'll show you.

What makes you think you can be the best in the world? Think about this, you know what MMA is right? Cage fighting?

Let's imagine you are a fan of cage fighting. Exciting stuff. Do you think you could just walk in the ring without any training? Without ever having worked out in your life and make your living at it?

Get real!

If you really want to trade then your best bet is to get a job immediately, start practice trading, and find a mentor. Trading is like starting any business. You will need to buckle down and sacrifice.

Markets are always changing. I consider myself among the best in the world at my game. But, I'm always having to learn and adapt.

Your wife needs to get on board and understand she's going to be working supporting you for the next few years. If you really want to trade and she wont help then get rid of her. Burn bridges. Show some heart.

No? Doesn't sound like fun? That's reality for you. Best get a boring, non rewarding corporate job and be grateful for it.

Quote from Pondering Man:

This is my first post obviously. I need your help and wisdom. I am a small business owner and am in the process of selling my company. I’m in my mid 40’s with a beautiful wife and 2 beautiful kids.

Here’s the issue: the proceeds from the sale are not enough to retire comfortably and I’m left with no single avenue to support the family after the sale. I have an undergrad in Finance and an MBA and good industry (non-investment field related) experience but I detest the very idea of re-entering the corporate world. My wife is highly desirious of me working for The Man and I can see her point, as it provides a safety net. And so herein lies the conundrum.

So what I’m really getting at is: have any of you been in a similar situation (ie, midlife with retirement savings in progress but not quite there yet and needing to find a source of income)? I have been reading ET for a while as well as reading books on trading but am not a trader nor have I ever traded. I know all the failure statistics yet see myself as having most of the core competencies of a trader: analytical, passionate, hardworking, willing to put in the time/effort, realizing this is a business and not a hobby, etc, etc. Have any of you made the switch to trading mid career and are successful in relative terms? My family and I could live off the monies from the sale for a year or so easily while I continue to prepare myself for trading.

Oh, and a big point: my wife would want at least some degree of assurance that trading could bring in incremental income over and above what I could obtain merely by investing.

If not trading, is there any other type of investing you would recommend if you were in my shoes? Swing trading? Anything else?

Thanks so much for your constructive feedback.
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