"Have we now topped . . . " Part 5: what now ?

[Wallace]

Democrats will take control of the US House of Representative, but no majority
in the Senate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephe...-ii-what-i-found-will-shock-you/#655d22943c20

Forbes: 'Here's How Stocks Perform After Every Midterm Election Since World War II'
Stephen McBride Contributor: Markets: The editor of RiskHedge Report.
"Here’s what we found…
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections.
US Stocks Have Climbed Higher * in the Next 12 months * After Every Single One
Every single one. That’s 18 for 18 ! I’ll repeat it because this is so important:
For each of the past 18 midterms, stocks have always climbed higher * a year later *.
Always."
my emphasis * on the 'year later' aspect, rather than it being a day-after phenomenon.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-elections-usually-give-stocks-pause-in-
september-but-pave-way-for-later-gains-2018-09-01
'Will midterm elections sink the stock market? Here’s what history says'.
by William Watts Published: Sept 8, 2018 11:09 a.m. ET.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...78a303d/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8ea226d7ac46

by Tory Newmyer.
"The good news for investors, per Strategas’s Clifton: “Historically, midterm election sell-offs tend to be great buying opportunities with stocks up * one year later * every single time since 1962 and by an average of 36 percent. The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election year since 1946.” "
my emphasis *

https://www.forex.com/resources/pdf/what-us-midterm-elections-mean-for-dollar-stocks.pdf
"As the long-term EURUSD chart below shows . . . "

There isn't anything particularly definitive about any of my charts blaring 'SELL ! ! !', however
since the Price rose on Friday to its Retracement HH forming what I think's an AB Reversal - see the 15min - I'm now expecting 'DOWN'.

The above MidTerm commentaries state the rally is Later, so it won't be anything extraordinary for the ES to dump; how Low ?

There's a 61% level on the M chart around 2412 , the 50% , a hundred points higher and lines to drop down to, January ?

Friday's Close suggests to me a possible gap Down Opening, and possible running drop right from the Opening - I've been known to be wrong ;

 

[monkeyc]

It's more correct to say "The market has not suffered an annual loss in the year after a mid-term election". The market can still suffer huge drops in the year after a mid-term, but can the average investor withstand the emotional rollercoaster? Let's not forget the gut-wrenching declines in 1987 and 2011

 

[Wallace]

For an Elliotteer, 2011 was the C of the ABC Wave 2 Correction, and while a modest 38.2% correction of the previous two years Price rise, was expected, and in keeping with the preceding A and B waves.


The 1987 Correction was a bit more interesting since it had been predicted by Frost and Prechter in their
'Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior', originally published in 1979.

By the time '87 rolled around everyone and their uncle knew about the prediction, and in September the markets had already rolled over and were going down.

When Louis Rukeyser's 'Wall Street Week' show was broadcast on Friday night Oct 16, 1987 , the markets had dumped a Lot.
So it was no surprise when Marty Zweig - one of Louis' guests that evening called the remainder of the move like it turned out to be "Crash":

'Part 1 - Before the Crash - Wall Street Week October 16, 1987'

Where was Frost and Prechter's prediction from ? simple
they added the fibonacci number 55 to 1932 and got 1987.

Looking forward and based on the next fibo number in the sequence - 89 , means that
1932 + 89 = 2021 , so in the fibonacci theory of things, the Bull should run till then —
unless of course that's when the Bear market ends ;

 

[trader99]

Where was Frost and Prechter's prediction from ? simple
they added the fibonacci number 55 to 1932 and got 1987.

Looking forward and based on the next fibo number in the sequence - 89 , means that
1932 + 89 = 2021 , so in the fibonacci theory of things, the Bull should run till then —
unless of course that's when the Bear market ends ;

Interesting. But sounds too much like numerology rather than based on sound reasoning. Most likely coincidental.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

Holy Shit @ 6:50 mark! So this in the infamous interview that Marty Schwartz talks about in Pit Bull...

This is also why every single journalist is instructed to behave according to plan & not to deviate off of the Golden Rule.

 

[Wallace]

. . . sounds too much like numerology . . .

and what makes you think numerology doesn't work ?

 

[bone]

For an Elliotteer, 2011 was the C of the ABC Wave 2 Correction, and while a modest 38.2% correction of the previous two years Price rise, was expected, and in keeping with the preceding A and B waves.

I once saw a Chicago advert for prop traders - it stated, "Elliott Wave and Gann Line Cultists Need NOT Apply".

True Story

 

[bone]

and what makes you think numerology doesn't work ?

Science.

 

[trader99]

and what makes you think numerology doesn't work ?

Because it's postdictive and not predictive. If someone in 1932 said 55 years from today there will be a huge crash in 1987 then I'll be more impressed. But instead they are fcking CURVE FITTING in its worst form. They looked back then said 55 is a fib number. whatever.

Be rational.

 

[Wallace]

Wallace said: " . . and what makes you think numerology doesn't work ?"

Because it's postdictive and not predictive.

What makes you think rationality has anything to recommend it


As I understand it;
Frost and Prechter based their prediction on what they'd learnt from Elliott about 'Market Behaviour'.

It wasn't Elliott's prediction as far as I know, and Prechter hadn't even been born in 1932.
A nine years old prediction that proved to be correct, for a year when there'd be the largest drawdown, greatest volume, greatest loss of value since the 'Crash of '29' I think is pretty good going.

I think you don't understand what's meant by the term used to identify the phenomenon known as the Fibonacci Ratio, and based on that,
you'd have absolutely no understanding of something as esoteric as Numerology.