"Have we now topped . . . " Part 2

[Wallace]

Updated D W M charts

Correction Fibos:

Yellow: LL Fri Feb 9/18 ~ 2543.500 -- HH Fri Sep 21/18 ~ 2947.000 - - 403.5 point range.

Blue: LL Mon Apr 2/18 ~ 2560.250 - Fri Sep 21/18 ~ HH 2947.000

When I look at the Monthly chart I get the impression it's just doing a somewhat aggressive Correction that may last into Jan - Feb next year when a new - 'final' ? rally begins. The formation so far just doesn't appear to be a 'goin' to Hell' scenario.

So this side of the Correction may last a few months, but I don't expect it to go as low as the LL made earlier this year — I've been known to be wrong ;

The Estimate

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[Ayn Rand]

That just goes to show that things are not what they seem.

The trend is definitely down, fundamentally.

But as an aside there is x$ every week falling into retirement funds. Always hard to tell what is going on.

FYI - most funds get a % of funds under management. All you have to do to not mess this up is keep the market at even or more.

Still I am going all in on a decline at least for Monday.

 

[Scataphagos]

That just goes to show that things are not what they seem.

The trend is definitely down, fundamentally.

But as an aside there is x$ every week falling into retirement funds. Always hard to tell what is going on.

FYI - most funds get a % of funds under management. All you have to do to not mess this up is keep the market at even or more.

Still I am going all in on a decline at least for Monday.

1. "trend down, fundamentally".... seems so, but bull markets are notorious for ignoring/deflecting/"fighting-off" negatives "up to a point" before topping ... sometimes for quite a while.

Could be that "2x matched high" in the Dow was in fact, IT! But it's only one of a few possible/reasonable reads at this time, IMV.

2. "Going all-in on a decline"? Chasing the short or BTFD??

 

[bone]

The trend is definitely down, fundamentally. ...

Still I am going all in on a decline at least for Monday.

Please be careful about in what context you use the term "trend". It's a powerful term that very few understand correctly. We would have much more work to do on the downside and on a sustained basis before you could legitimately state that we are in a long term "down trend". Short term, yes it would be fair to say that we are in a correction. But not a legitimate down trend. Not technically, not fundamentally. Not just yet. Look at what happened in early 2016 and early 2018 - quite the 'bear trap'.