Have we hit the top?

[smallfil]

There is no profit in calling tops or bottoms.

What to do at the price levels we're at right now is surely dependent on your holding time horizon. If you hold company shares and expect to sell them in decades from now, there is no reason to sell this week.

If you're trading shares or taking a bullish position on a stock index, then you should already have got into cash early in the month. But actually there's an argument for getting back in now.

Go tell the ET trolls that. These guys are a glutton for punishment. It is amazing they have not gone bankrupt yet. Maybe, coming real soon? I think the odds are pretty good they will blow up their accounts sooner than later.

 

[Tarzan]

Many stocks have had parabolic moves to the upside along with very stretched valuations. Pins come in many forms, however, they all have the power to pop.
I have included some support levels. The top level is the previous high on the naz. The levels are basically every 1000 points, give or take 200.

 

[fan27]

If we look at a historic chart, we can see there are bear phases and bull phases, with each secular bull phases lasting about 17 years. This is a very small data set in terms of analyzing these phases, so take it "with a grain of salt". Following this logic, we started the current bull phase around 2013...we could easily see a continuation of the bull move (with mini bear markets included) until the end of this decade.

 

[KCalhoun]

Market makes less than no sense up here with pandemic and valuations. But bubbles can go a long time before crashing. I'll be mostly daytrading.

When a major correction occurs it'll likely be extreme.

 

[Girija]

I've been of the mind that the markets still had a ways to run upwards. My thinking was that there was no specific catalysing event that would cause a re-valuation, so things would just keep melting up for a while.

This article is making me wonder if we've just hit peak "irrational exuberance":
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1058453/13-stocks-you-think-you-should-sell-but-shouldnt

How can someone sleep at night telling people to hold those companies this price point?
Look at Ringcentral they've been showing increasing losses even with increasing revenue... for a video conferencing company. They should already be killing it. What is the bull case there, their revenue goes up again and the figure out how to lose even more money?

Or look at some of her other items, like resort companies at a P/E of over 100?

Or investing in a foreign branch of Coke at 138 P/E?

I'm starting to wonder if we hit a point where people look at the meagre returns for remaining invested, vs the potential for a 100% loss and decide to flee the stock market. I'm starting to look into bonds.

I don't feel like we've quite hit the days of pets.com, but an SP500 index fund is looking pretty unappealing these days.
Anyone have thoughts they're willing to share on when it's time to grab the chips off the table and walk away for a year?
Pull out at SP500 PE of 45?
Do people just have stop loss orders that they trust will be executed?

Here is an alternative view on why market is not overvalued.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnto...lief-that-the-stock-market-is-overvalued/amp/

 

[engineering]

There is no profit in calling tops or bottoms.

There is obviously profit if you get the timing right.

Se might say, "That's just being lucky."
I'd say Michael Burry disproved that. The brilliant part of his plan was knowing when the adjustable rates changed a would force a crash.

As far as someone else's car analogy, I'd say it's more like selling your house at the peak of a real estate boom, then living in an apt for a year and buying it back after the crash.

I do think there could be more upside left. I'm not fully convinced that we are at the peak, but I feel like more and more mental gymnastics are being used by professionals in order to justify high valuations.

 

[Sulla]

The question is, will earnings growth continue like it has the past year? Would love to hear opinions.

If earnings keep rising then it would seem that we are simply Venezuela.

 

[SPX Options Trader]

I've been of the mind
Anyone have thoughts they're willing to share on when it's time to grab the chips off the table

When you see the reverse pullback on the S&P by a 1" or 2" or 3" or 4" movement on the chart, buy put options and make bank till another reverse pullback happens by a 1" or 2" or 3" or 4" movement on the chart, and buy call options. Ride that roller coaster mountain of profits up and down until you become so rich.

 

[Overnight]

...

When the 2000 Nasdaq Y2K Tech Wreck finally broke it sure wasn't Pets.Com that was the cause.

You sure about that? hehe.

 

[formikatrading]

The reason for it making no sense is that folks keep making false assumptions about how the financial markets work. Meanwhile, the best gains right now are just buying the dips.

Market makes less than no sense up here with pandemic and valuations. But bubbles can go a long time before crashing. I'll be mostly daytrading.

When a major correction occurs it'll likely be extreme.